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英语新闻丨CPI decline may spur easing, stimulus

11/6/2025
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China's price levels remained subdued in May, leaving ample room for further monetary easing and robust fiscal stimulus in the remainder of the year, analysts said on Monday.

分析人士周一表示,中国5月份物价水平保持低位,为今年剩余时间进一步放松货币政策和实施强劲财政刺激措施留下了充足的空间。

They said more policy support is needed to shore up demand in the world's second-largest economy, as policymakers navigate a more complicated and challenging external environment amid trade tensions with the United States.

他们表示,在与美国贸易紧张局势加剧的背景下,决策者需要更多政策支持来提振全球第二大经济体的需求,因为政策制定者正在应对更加复杂和具有挑战性的外部环境。

Their comments came as data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the country's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, fell by 0.1 percent year-on-year in May, the same as in the previous month.

他们发表上述言论之际,国家统计局发布的数据显示,5月份,作为通胀主要衡量指标的中国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比下降0.1%,与上月持平。

Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, linked the subdued consumer prices to seasonal factors and a decline in oil prices, while noting the improvement in core CPI, suggesting the resilience of the domestic economy.

中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬将CPI低迷归因于季节性因素和油价下跌,同时指出核心CPI的改善表明国内经济具有韧性。

The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is deemed a better gauge of the demand-supply relationship, increased 0.6 percent year-on-year in May, up from a 0.5 percent rise in April, NBS data showed.

国家统计局数据显示,剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%,较4月份的0.5%进一步回升,被视为衡量供需关系的更优指标。

On factory-gate prices, Wen said the decline reflected ongoing imported price pressures. "Although risk appetite increased early in the month due to favorable progress in US-China talks, with a slight rebound in commodity prices, excluding gold, commodity prices later dropped again as tariff threats resurfaced," he said.

关于出厂价格,温彬表示,CPI的下降反映了持续的进口价格压力。他表示:“尽管本月初受中美贸易谈判取得积极进展的影响,风险偏好有所回升,除黄金以外的大宗商品价格略有反弹,但随着关税威胁再次浮现,大宗商品价格随后再次下跌。”

China's producer price index, which gauges factory-gate prices, dropped by 3.3 percent year-on-year in May, widening from a 2.7 percent fall in April, the NBS said.

国家统计局表示,衡量出厂价格的中国5月份生产者价格指数(PPI)同比下降3.3%,降幅较4月份2.7%的降幅有所扩大。

Looking ahead, Wen said he expects CPI to rebound modestly but remain low in the near term, saying supportive macroeconomic policies would bolster core CPI growth.

展望未来,温彬表示,他预计CPI将小幅反弹,但短期内仍将维持低位,并表示支持性的宏观经济政策将支撑核心CPI的增长。

"A combination of incremental and existing policy measures are working in tandem to improve the supply-demand structure, which will support prices in relevant sectors. Increased travel demand during the summer will also drive up service prices."

“增量与存量政策工具协同发力,将改善供需结构,对相关行业价格形成支撑。暑期出行需求上升也将带动服务类价格上涨。”

As for PPI, Wen said conditions may gradually improve, though a return to positive territory will take time.

关于PPI,温彬认为,尽管整体环境或将逐步改善,但短期内难以迅速转正。

Considering base effects and current trends in consumer goods, energy, and industrial prices, Feng Lin, executive director of the research and development department at Golden Credit Rating International, said she expects consumer prices to remain flat in June, with the year-on-year drop in PPI likely staying around 3.3 percent.

东方金诚国际信用评估有限公司研究发展部执行总监冯琳预计,考虑到基数效应以及当前消费品、能源和工业品价格走势,预计6月份CPI环比持平,PPI同比降幅仍将维持在3.3%左右。

"With overall prices staying at low levels, promoting a reasonable rebound in prices will become an important macro policy goal in the second half of the year," she said. "This also opens up room for more proactive fiscal policies to boost consumption and investment, as well as further interest rate cuts by the central bank."

她表示:“在物价总体处于低位运行的背景下,推动物价合理回升将成为下半年宏观政策的重要目标。这也为央行进一步采取更积极的财政政策刺激消费和投资,以及进一步降息提供了空间。”

Yuan Haixia, dean of the research institute at rating agency CCXI, said that China continues to face a complex and challenging external environment while domestic cyclical and structural economic issues remain intertwined.

中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞表示,中国外部环境依然复杂严峻,国内经济周期性问题和结构性问题依然交织。

While production remains relatively strong, domestic demand is only marginally improving and still weak overall as shown by subdued price levels, despite resilient external demand, Yuan said. "Policymakers should take advantage of the current policy window and intensify countercyclical measures in the short term."

袁海霞表示,尽管生产保持相对强劲,但国内需求仅略有改善,整体来看仍然疲软,价格水平低迷是其主要表现,而外部需求保持韧性。“政策制定者应抓住当前政策窗口,短期内加大逆周期调节力度。”

Yuan said that there is still scope for one to two more cuts in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates during the remainder of the year, given the country's relatively high real interest rates amid low inflation and its ample policy space compared to economies like the United States and Japan.

袁海霞表示,考虑到当前实际利率偏高、通胀较低,同时与美日等国相比,我国政策空间仍较为充裕,年内仍有1至2次降准降息的空间。

On the fiscal front, stronger central government fiscal support is needed to expand domestic demand while around 1 trillion yuan ($139.22 billion) in additional fiscal funding could be introduced at a proper time to stabilize growth and improve expectations, she said.

她表示,在财政方面,中央政府需要加大财政支持力度,扩大内需,同时可以适时新增约1万亿元人民币(约合1392.2亿美元)的财政资金,以稳定增长并改善预期。

Yuan added that a balanced approach to encourage both consumption and investment is needed. Measures could include short-term cash subsidies, midterm tax reforms, and long-term improvements in income distribution to boost consumption. In parallel, investment priority should shift from physical infrastructure toward human capital, with a focus on raising investment efficiency.

袁海霞补充说,需要采取均衡的政策措施,鼓励消费和投资。措施可能包括短期现金补贴、中期税制改革以及长期改善收入分配以刺激消费。同时,投资重点应从物质基础设施转向人力资本,并注重提高投资效率。

stimulus

/ˈstɪmjələs/

n.刺激(措施);促进因素

resilience

/rɪˈzɪliəns/

n.韧性;恢复力

countercyclical

/ˌkaʊntərˈsɪklɪkəl/

adj.逆周期的

gauge

/ɡeɪdʒ/

n.指标;标准;衡量工具



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