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英语新闻丨Economy expected to maintain steady pace

8/1/2025
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China's economy is expected to maintain steady momentum in the second half of the year amid continuous policy support, with international institutions' raised growth forecasts reflecting strengthened confidence in the world's second-largest economy, economists and analysts said.

经济学家和分析师表示,在持续的政策支持下,中国经济预计将在下半年保持稳定增长态势。国际机构上调的经济增长预测反映了对全球第二大经济体信心的增强。

With the country's top leadership having clearly signaled consistent macro policy support to sustain the economic rally, they said that measures in the pipeline may include more consumption subsidies, additional public investment in urban renewal and accelerated reduction of housing market inventory.

鉴于国家高层已明确表示将继续提供稳定的宏观经济政策支持以维持经济复苏态势,他们表示,即将出台的措施可能包括增加消费补贴、加大对城市更新的公共投资以及加快减少房地产市场的库存。

Their comments came as the International Monetary Fund significantly raised its forecast for China's full-year economic growth to 4.8 percent in its World Economic Outlook Update report on Tuesday, up 0.8 percentage point compared with its forecast in April.

就在他们发表上述言论之际,国际货币基金组织在周二发布的《世界经济展望更新报告》中大幅上调了对中国经济全年增长的预期,将这一预期值上调至4.8%,较其4月份的预测值高出0.8个百分点。

The revision reflects the Chinese economy's stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of the year and the significant reductions in tariffs between China and the US, the IMF report said, as China received the largest upgrade in forecast among major economies.The IMF, which nudged the full-year global growth forecast for 2025 from 2.8 percent to 3 percent, also revised China's growth forecast for 2026 upward by 0.2 percentage point to 4.2 percent, due in part to lower effective tariff rates than previously assumed in the April forecast.More signs of de-escalation in Sino-US trade tensions emerged on Tuesday. Based on the consensus achieved during the third round of China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, both sides will continue pushing for a continued extension by 90 days of the pause on 24 percent reciprocal tariffs of the US, as well as countermeasures by China.

国际货币基金组织的报告称,此次修订反映了中国上半年经济活动超出预期的强劲表现,以及中美之间关税的大幅下调。报告指出,中国在主要经济体中获得了最大的经济预期上调幅度。国际货币基金组织将2025年全球全年经济增长预期从2.8%上调至3%,同时还将2026年中国经济增长预期上调0.2个百分点至4.2%,部分原因是实际关税率低于此前4月份预测中的水平。周二,中美贸易紧张局势缓和的迹象进一步显现。根据在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行的第三轮中美经济与贸易谈判达成的共识,双方将继续推动将美国对华24%的互惠关税暂停措施再延长90天,并采取中国的相应措施。

The IMF's upward revision follows major international financial institutions, such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, UBS and Nomura, which raised their expectations for China's economic growth, thanks to a 5.3 percent year-on-year expansion in the first half.

国际货币基金组织此次上调预期,是由于包括摩根士丹利、高盛、瑞银和野村证券在内的各大国际金融机构提高了对中国经济增长的预期。这得益于上半年中国经济同比增长5.3%。

Citing factors such as China's robust GDP growth of 5.2 percent in the second quarter, Goldman Sachs said in a report on Monday that it retains its overweight stance on Chinese equities in a regional context, while revising its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index to 90 from 85. The MSCI China Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of large and mid-cap Chinese companies listed in both China and abroad.

高盛在周一发布的一份报告中指出,鉴于中国第二季度经济增速高达5.2%等种种因素,其仍认为在区域范围内增持中国股票是合理的,并将摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数的12个月目标值从85调整至90。摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数是一个追踪在国内外上市的大型及中型中国公司表现的股票市场指数。

Zhang Bin, a nonresident senior fellow at the China Finance 40 Forum and a national political adviser, said that China's economic growth has been resilient this year, as industrial production maintained solid momentum while exports to other regions offset the decline of exports to the US.

张斌是“中国金融40人论坛”的非驻会高级研究员,也是国家政治顾问。他表示,今年中国的经济增长表现强劲,工业生产保持了稳定增长态势,同时对其他地区的出口弥补了对美国出口的下降。

With 5.3 percent first-half growth, Zhang said that China's full-year GDP growth target of about 5 percent should be well within reach. However, he noted that the challenge of insufficient demand — and, therefore, pressures on the labor and capital markets — may intensify in the second half amid lingering property market weakness and the unfolding impact of US tariffs on exports.

上半年经济增长率为5.3%,张表示,中国全年约5%的GDP增长目标应该完全能够实现。不过他指出,由于需求不足所带来的挑战(进而给劳动力和资本市场带来压力)在下半年可能会加剧,原因在于房地产市场持续疲软以及美国对出口产品加征关税所带来的影响仍在持续。

This has necessitated further macro policy support, said Zhang, who suggested the issuance of additional government bonds in the second half to boost public investment in urban renewal.The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee held a tone-setting meeting on Wednesday that made arrangements for economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting emphasized that macro policies should continue to exert force and be strengthened at an appropriate time, calling for efforts to expand consumer demand by ensuring and improving people's living standards, carrying out high-quality urban renewal, and consolidating the capital market's trend of stabilization and improvement.

张表示,这需要进一步的宏观政策支持。他建议在下半年发行更多政府债券,以促进城市更新领域的公共投资。中共中央政治局周三召开了一次具有指导意义的会议,对下半年的经济工作进行了安排。会议强调,宏观政策应持续发力,并在适当的时候加强力度,要求通过保障和提高人民生活水平、开展高质量的城市更新以及巩固资本市场稳定向好的趋势等方式,努力扩大消费需求。

Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said the meeting indicated that macro policies will continue to focus on growth stabilization in the second half.

金信国际首席宏观经济分析师王青表示,此次会议表明,下半年宏观政策仍将侧重于促进经济增长的稳定。

Anticipated measures include further interest rate cuts, consumption subsidies in more sectors such as travel, and greater advancements in using government bonds to purchase unsold property stock for affordable housing purposes, Wang said.

王表示,预计采取的措施包括进一步降低利率、在更多领域(如旅游领域)提供消费补贴,以及在利用政府债券购买未售出的房产以用于保障性住房方面取得更大进展。

economic growth forecast

n.经济增长预测

/ˌiːkəˈnɒmɪkɡrəʊθ ˈfɔːkɑːst/

macro policy support

n.宏观政策支持

/ˈmækrəʊˈpɒləsi səˈpɔːt/




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