Quagmire: Scenario planning a case for lasting oil markets disruption (Ep. 258)

Phillips 66 is a US-based downstream energy company that operates through five core segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. Sean Maher, Phillips 66 chief economist and head of investor relations, joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss how Phillips 66 is navigating the current high-margin, high-utilization environment and outline the investment priorities fueling the company's next leg of growth. Learn more about Phillips 66 at: https://investor.phillips66.com/investors/default.aspx Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

What happens when plenty of capital enters the energy transition, but not enough of it reaches the companies best positioned to scale? In this episode of EnergyCents, Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys speak with Francis O'Sullivan, Managing Director of Energy Investment at S2G, about "The Illusion of Crowds," a paper that challenges the idea that more investors automatically create a smarter, more effective market. They discuss how capital has become highly concentrated, why this matters for the "missing middle" — companies beyond venture stage but not yet ready for traditional infrastructure finance — and what LPs and GPs can do to better support practical, scalable energy innovation. Find out more about the paper and S2G here: https://www.s2ginvestments.com/insights/report-illusion-of-crowds Learn more about S&P Global Energy here: Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Scenario planning allows investors and executives to prepare for situations outside of their base-case expectations. S&P Global Energy developed a new case called "Quagmire" that assumes conflict around the Strait of Hormuz becomes a permanent geopolitical feature and trade flows fragment in favor of regional energy security. Oil markets experts Louise Vertz and Sandra Abdallah join hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to walk us through the assumptions in S&P Global Energy's "Quagmire" scenario and explain what lasting changes could be in store for oil markets if disruption turns from months into years. Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Traditional grids rely on the physical inertia of massive, spinning turbines to stabilize frequency during sudden power outages. This stability is being challenged by the growth of solar and wind power, which lack the physical spinning parts needed to buffer the grid. Grid-forming inverters create a 'digital inertia' that enables grid stability and are increasingly critical to ensuring reliability as grids transition. Renewable electricity experts Cormac Gilligan and Tiffany Wang join hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the vital contribution of grid-forming inverters to grid stability and consider the business models and regional constructs behind their wider spread adoption. Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Fresh investment in North American refining infrastructure stalled in prior years as the sector braced for long-term demand destruction. However, capacity has fallen faster than demand and profit margins are now healthier than many expected. Refining expert Debnil Chowdhury joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the North American refining landscape and how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Russia are contributing to high utilization and profitability for the sector. Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

South America is undergoing a major political shift, with a wave of right-leaning governments reshaping the region's approach to energy and natural resources. In this episode, Upstream risk expert Ford Tanner joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to explore what the rise of the "New Right" could mean for oil and gas investment, energy security, and the future of key markets including Argentina, Colombia, Brazil, and Venezuela.   Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Oil and product markets showed unexpected resilience in prior weeks thanks, in large part, to reduced crude demand from China. The system is now much tighter and its resilience could be tested, particularly when it comes to refined product markets, as we enter a new phase.    Oil markets expert Karim Fawaz joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the evolving balances of global crude and refined products as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be limited. Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

ACORE is a Washington-based non-profit that brings together partners in finance, policy and technology to advance clean energy initiatives in the US. ACORE SVP of Policy and Engagement Lesley Hunter joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss financing trends in the clean energy economy and consider how the sector is weathering changes in federal policy support. Learn more about ACORE at: https://acore.org/about/ Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Ethanol has been a cornerstone of the US biofuels industry for decades, but what role will it play in an energy system increasingly shaped by electrification, low-carbon fuels and evolving policy?   Biofuels expert Kevin Lindemer joins EnergyCents hosts Hill Vaden and Samantha Humphreys to explore the current state of the biofuels market, why ethanol remains central to US transportation fuels, and how policy, technology and market dynamics could influence the sector's future. From blending mandates and feedstock economics to emerging opportunities in sustainable fuels, the discussion examines where ethanol fits in the next phase of the energy transition.   Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

The US data center complex is building against speed-to-power mandates that require developers to get projects online as quickly as possible. Delays plugging into grid-connected power are forcing projects to invest in behind-the-meter (BTM) gas generation assets as they seek access to electricity. S&P Global Energy expert Ben Levitt joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the rise of behind-the-meter power projects connected to data centers and how these projects are reshaping investments in US electricity generation. Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en