Storms, Storage and Supply: Europe's winter energy outlook (Ep. 264)

The rules of Europe's gas market have changed. Russian pipeline gas is gone, LNG is king, and storage has become one of the continent's most important energy buffers. This week on EnergyCents, Alun Davies joins Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to explain why Europe is entering winter with lower-than-expected gas inventories, how global LNG competition is influencing prices, and what a warmer or colder winter could mean for consumers and industry alike. From the Strait of Hormuz to European storage caverns, this episode explores the forces shaping one of the world's most important energy markets.   Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed a significant share of global LNG supply from the market, reshaping gas trade flows and raising questions about energy security ahead of winter. In this episode of EnergyCents, Sam Humphreys and Hill Vaden are joined by S&P Global gas expert Laurent Ruseckas to unpack the latest developments in global LNG markets.    Why have gas prices surged despite demand adjustments in Asia? Will Europe be able to refill storage and secure enough supply this winter? And if Europe is willing to pay whatever it takes, who is left competing for the world's remaining LNG cargoes?   Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Oil prices are up by more than 75% since the start of the year and recently crossed the psychologically important $100/barrel milestone. The corresponding rise in US drilling rigs, however, has been far more modest.   S&P Global Energy Shale Sector expert Imre Kugler joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss activity levels in US shale, and why operators are hesitant to ramp up production despite higher prices. Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Why are the world's largest oil companies turning their attention back to West Africa? In this episode of EnergyCents, Sam Humphreys and Hill Vaden are joined by S&P Global's Justin Cochran and Roderick Bruce to explore the region's deepwater revival. From promising geology and the pursuit of "needle-moving" discoveries to improved fiscal terms and faster licensing, the conversation examines what is drawing exploration capital to Africa's Atlantic margin—and whether this renewed interest can translate into the next generation of major oil discoveries. Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Phillips 66 is a US-based downstream energy company that operates through five core segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. Sean Maher, Phillips 66 chief economist and head of investor relations, joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss how Phillips 66 is navigating the current high-margin, high-utilization environment and outline the investment priorities fueling the company's next leg of growth. Learn more about Phillips 66 at: https://investor.phillips66.com/investors/default.aspx Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

What happens when plenty of capital enters the energy transition, but not enough of it reaches the companies best positioned to scale? In this episode of EnergyCents, Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys speak with Francis O'Sullivan, Managing Director of Energy Investment at S2G, about "The Illusion of Crowds," a paper that challenges the idea that more investors automatically create a smarter, more effective market. They discuss how capital has become highly concentrated, why this matters for the "missing middle" — companies beyond venture stage but not yet ready for traditional infrastructure finance — and what LPs and GPs can do to better support practical, scalable energy innovation. Find out more about the paper and S2G here: https://www.s2ginvestments.com/insights/report-illusion-of-crowds Learn more about S&P Global Energy here: Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Scenario planning allows investors and executives to prepare for situations outside of their base-case expectations. S&P Global Energy developed a new case called "Quagmire" that assumes conflict around the Strait of Hormuz becomes a permanent geopolitical feature and trade flows fragment in favor of regional energy security. Oil markets experts Louise Vertz and Sandra Abdallah join hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to walk us through the assumptions in S&P Global Energy's "Quagmire" scenario and explain what lasting changes could be in store for oil markets if disruption turns from months into years. Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Traditional grids rely on the physical inertia of massive, spinning turbines to stabilize frequency during sudden power outages. This stability is being challenged by the growth of solar and wind power, which lack the physical spinning parts needed to buffer the grid. Grid-forming inverters create a 'digital inertia' that enables grid stability and are increasingly critical to ensuring reliability as grids transition. Renewable electricity experts Cormac Gilligan and Tiffany Wang join hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the vital contribution of grid-forming inverters to grid stability and consider the business models and regional constructs behind their wider spread adoption. Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

Fresh investment in North American refining infrastructure stalled in prior years as the sector braced for long-term demand destruction. However, capacity has fallen faster than demand and profit margins are now healthier than many expected. Refining expert Debnil Chowdhury joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the North American refining landscape and how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Russia are contributing to high utilization and profitability for the sector. Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en

South America is undergoing a major political shift, with a wave of right-leaning governments reshaping the region's approach to energy and natural resources. In this episode, Upstream risk expert Ford Tanner joins hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to explore what the rise of the "New Right" could mean for oil and gas investment, energy security, and the future of key markets including Argentina, Colombia, Brazil, and Venezuela.   Learn more about S&P Global Energy coverage at: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en