Somalia’s Election Standoff and New Inflection Point

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa, to discuss the deeper implications of Somalia’s new election crisis. They discuss the looming electoral standoff as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term is set to expire on 15 May, and why this latest dispute could prove more fateful than previous election crises. They unpack tensions between Mogadishu and federal member states over constitutional changes, elections and the future of Somalia’s federal system. They look at the looming end of the African Union stabilisation mission and what that will mean for coordinating collective support for the federal government’s war with Al-Shabaab. They discuss the rivalries among external powers and how these risk exacerbating Somalia’s own internal fissures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss where Sudan’s war stands as it approaches its fourth year. They examine shifts along the front lines as Sudan’s de facto partition under the two main warring parties, the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, is becoming increasingly entrenched. They speak about how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is affecting dynamics in Sudan. They also discuss the coherence of the two sides, their rival political projects and the role of outside backing in sustaining the war. They unpack the mounting risks of regional spillover, the state of efforts to broker peace, what might break the stalemate in those talks and the devastating toll three years of war have taken on Sudan. For more, check out The Horn episode How the Iran War is Reshaping the Region and our Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Hafsa Halawa, an independent political analyst and mediation specialist, to discuss the fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran in the Horn of Africa. They examine the immediate disruptions to fuel, fertiliser and shipping, and what a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for economies across the region. They discuss how the new Middle East war will impact the intertwined geopolitics between the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, including the mounting strategic importance of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait. Finally, they discuss how the war may impact tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and how it might affect flashpoints across the Horn, including Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Moses Chrispus Okello, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Security Studies, to unpack the common forces driving instability across the Horn of Africa and where the region might be headed. They discuss how today’s crises across the Horn of Africa are rooted primarily in domestic politics, even as they are increasingly shaped and intensified by outside powers competing for influence as the region becomes more entangled in Red Sea geopolitics. They examine Ethiopia’s central place in the region, how its push for sea access is raising tensions with neighbours and the prospects for wider regional realignments. Finally, they explore what stabilisation might require, from reducing proxy competition to rebuilding regional diplomacy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by H. A. Hellyer, Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, to explore what’s behind the rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and the competing visions of regional order driving it. They examine where tensions have emerged most sharply, including in Yemen and Sudan, and what these flashpoints reveal about each country’s red lines and regional strategy. They look at how, despite the dispute, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are coordinating their response to Iran’s attacks on Gulf states following U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. They also discuss what Saudi-UAE détente might look like, whether Riyadh and Abu Dhabi can manage their disagreements, including over Sudan, if they are unable to fully resolve them and how countries in the Horn of Africa can avoid being drawn into the rivalry. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Africa director Murithi Mutiga about rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the growing risk of another war in the Horn of Africa. They discuss how political divisions in Tigray and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access are sharpening fault lines between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They examine how Gulf and Middle Eastern rivalries could shape any Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation and increase the risk of wider regional conflagration, including the danger of spillover from Sudan’s war. They also explore how global political shifts are playing out in Africa, reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” and the prospects for coalitions of mid-sized Western and non-Western powers to act collectively. For more, check out our briefing, “Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa”, and our Ethiopia-Eritrea page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Asher Lubotzky, senior research fellow at the Israel-Africa Relations Institute, to discuss Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and its interests in the Horn of Africa. They trace the history of Israel’s involvement in the region and its relationships today. They discuss why Israel moved to recognise Somaliland, how the decision links to Red Sea security concerns and the Houthi threat from Yemen, and what both sides hope to gain from closer ties. They also examine whether the growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could shape Israel’s role in the Horn, and what Israel hopes to gain from diplomatic relations on the continent. For more, check out our recent episode “The Rupture in the Gulf, and Its Fallout”, our Analyst’s Notebook “Gulf Tensions Spill into Somalia as Mogadishu Snubs UAE”, as well as our Horn of Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Kristof Titeca, professor at the Institute of Development Policy at the University of Antwerp, to talk about Uganda’s post-election landscape and the question of who might succeed President Yoweri Museveni after nearly four decades in power. They trace Museveni’s rise and unpack how he stabilised Uganda and managed to sustain his rule through patronage, coercion and increasingly personalised decision-making. They examine Uganda’s murky succession politics and Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is widely seen as the heir apparent and whose rapid military rise and provocative social media interventions have unsettled parts of the establishment. They also weigh various scenarios for a contested succession, whether Uganda’s state consolidation will hold after Museveni leaves, and the impact for the wider region. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Omar Mahmood and Shewit Woldemichael. He first speaks with Yasmine about what is behind the new public rupture between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Yemen, how this links to diverging strategies and rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, and the risk of a new Gulf crisis. Alan then turns to Omar and Shewit to discuss spillover into Somalia, including the fallout around Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, and into Sudan, where Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back opposing sides in the war, and what further polarisation and external competition could mean for an already tumultuous Horn of Africa. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, to unpack the escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They examine how these dynamics are intertwined with the fragmenting political and security situation in Tigray, Ethiopia’s push for sea access, and Eritrea’s deep-seated existential security concerns. They examine why, despite increasingly hostile rhetoric, war has not yet broken out, and what factors continue to restrain both sides. They also look at whether regional polarisation and global shifts could tip the balance and whether any credible options remain to de-escalate the standoff. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.