Is Ethiopia Sliding Toward a New Tigray War?

This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis, about the possible end of UNSOS, the UN logistics operation supporting African Union troops and Somali government forces fighting Al-Shabaab and what may come next.In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis about the U.S. decision to oppose renewed United Nations logistical support for the 19-year-old African Union military mission in Somalia. Samira explains why UN logistical support has been critical to the AU mission as well as to Somali government forces fighting Al-Shabaab, and why its loss could leave some areas outside Mogadishu increasingly vulnerable. They also discuss what could happen if no solution or stopgap measure is found, and the 12,000-strong African Union mission ceases to function by the end of the year. They discuss how such a scenario could shift the balance of power on the battlefield between the federal government and Al-Shabaab. They also assess whether Mogadishu’s pursuit of bilateral security partnerships could fill the void left by a weakened or defunct AU mission.This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed, former senior officials for the African Union’s mediation team, on how the split between Sudan and South Sudan fifteen years ago led to two failed states, the high-level diplomacy at the time to prevent all-out war, and whether such mediation is still possible today. In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined again by Abdul Mohammed and Alex de Waal, who worked together for the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) for Sudan and South Sudan, to talk about the inside diplomacy surrounding the separation of Sudan and South Sudan, how those dramatic events led to the tragedies in both countries today, and the state of mediation in today’s fragmented world. De Waal is co-author of a new book The Sudans that tells the account of the African Union’s major mediation initiative under President Thabo Mbeki tasked with helping mediate Sudan’s split. Alan, Abdul and Alex discuss some of the untold history of that period, why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today’s fragmented regional geopolitics.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Payton Knopf about the rising risk of renewed war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by scholar Federico Donelli, author of the recent book Power Competition in the Red Sea, to assess the shifting geopolitics of the Red Sea region. They trace the region’s long history as an arena for great-power competition before turning to the new scramble that has reshaped it since the turn of the millennium, as Gulf states, Türkiye and other middle powers compete over ports, bases, supply lines and political influence. They examine how the UAE-Saudi rivalry is playing out in the region, how Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access has reshuffled regional alignments, and how Houthi attacks have drawn Israel deeper into Red Sea security. They also consider Europe’s weight as a strategic actor and what future stability could look like in a region shaped by ad hoc coalitions, fluid alignments and non-state actors.This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more, check out Federico’s book Power Competition in the Red Sea: Testing the Post-Liberal International Order and our Horn of Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan speaks with Babatunde Afolabi, former Africa Director at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD), now Director of Political Affairs at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission, about mediation and conflict resolution in the Horn of Africa. They discuss HD’s discreet work facilitating dialogue between conflict parties, and why the Horn’s history, politics and geopolitics make regional cooperation such a challenge. They turn to Ethiopia’s Tigray region, where the Pretoria agreement that halted two years of devastating war risks unravelling, and to Oromia, where HD- and IGAD-facilitated talks between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army came close to a deal before collapsing. They also discuss Sudan’s hard-to-resolve war, prospects for dialogue with Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and why locally grounded dialogue remains essential to ending wars.For more, check out our Horn of Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by scholar and author Samson Abebe Bezabeh, a professor at the University of Hong Kong, to discuss Djibouti’s domestic politics and shifting role in a turbulent region. They explore Djibouti’s history, its internal political dynamics and uncertainty over the succession to President Ismail Omar Guelleh, who has ruled the country for nearly three decades. They discuss Djibouti’s role as a “garrison state”, how it benefits from hosting foreign military bases and why its strategic position may be changing as Ethiopia seeks alternative sea access. They also examine Djibouti’s fallout with the UAE over a cancelled port management contract, how that pushed Djibouti closer to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and whether tensions with Somaliland could become a new flashpoint.For more, check out Samson’s book Djibouti: A Political History and our Horn of Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by journalist and author Nesrine Malik. They take stock of Sudan’s war after more than three years of fighting and consider where the conflict might be headed. They discuss what the wars in Sudan and Gaza reveal about the collapse of the rules-based order, as the U.S. becomes more withdrawn and European capitals hesitate to act decisively. They assess how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is affecting the Horn, and how fuel and fertiliser shortages could affect African economies. Finally, they talk about what might come next for the global order and human rights, the prospect of middle powers uniting in the face of global disorder and “Equator”, the new magazine Malik helped found.This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.For more, check out Equator and our Horn of Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia and the Horn of Africa, to discuss the deeper implications of Somalia’s new election crisis. They discuss the looming electoral standoff as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term is set to expire on 15 May, and why this latest dispute could prove more fateful than previous election crises. They unpack tensions between Mogadishu and federal member states over constitutional changes, elections and the future of Somalia’s federal system. They look at the looming end of the African Union stabilisation mission and what that will mean for coordinating collective support for the federal government’s war with Al-Shabaab. They discuss the rivalries among external powers and how these risk exacerbating Somalia’s own internal fissures. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Sudan from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire!.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss where Sudan’s war stands as it approaches its fourth year. They examine shifts along the front lines as Sudan’s de facto partition under the two main warring parties, the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, is becoming increasingly entrenched. They speak about how the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is affecting dynamics in Sudan. They also discuss the coherence of the two sides, their rival political projects and the role of outside backing in sustaining the war. They unpack the mounting risks of regional spillover, the state of efforts to broker peace, what might break the stalemate in those talks and the devastating toll three years of war have taken on Sudan. For more, check out The Horn episode How the Iran War is Reshaping the Region and our Sudan page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Hafsa Halawa, an independent political analyst and mediation specialist, to discuss the fallout of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran in the Horn of Africa. They examine the immediate disruptions to fuel, fertiliser and shipping, and what a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for economies across the region. They discuss how the new Middle East war will impact the intertwined geopolitics between the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, including the mounting strategic importance of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait. Finally, they discuss how the war may impact tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and how it might affect flashpoints across the Horn, including Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.