S4E8: Warsh Does the Jackson Hole Two-Step

Send us Fan MailIn August of 2008 when Jerome Powell assumed the "Chair" of the US Federal Reserve Bank the FOMC published eleven "White Papers", over 300 words, hundreds of formulas, theories, historical, testing. I read every single word, within which the Powell-Fed laid out their "New Policy Paradigm".The new Policy Paradigm in 2018 was a pledge to LIFT inflation to a level ABOVE 2%, after years of sub-par rates.Thus the "two step", as Kevin Warsh dances away from that policy to his own new policy paradigm, or at least a Policy PLEDGE...to bring inflation DOWN to BELOW 2%.We have come full circle.The PROBLEM with Warsh's speech, long on words, short on meaning or definitions, lies within the White House, because raising rates is NOT helpful to Bessent's task of bringing Bond yields down.You CAN NOT HAVE BOTH...not without losing ALL credibility and likely losing the Bond market and US Dollar at the same time.But "they" may want BOTH, and when Trump tells Warsh to "get smart", it makes me think of Maxwell Smart, the bumbling spy (Bessent), working for the clueless "Chief" (DJT), with the sharp and cerebral sidekick "Agent 99" (Warsh)...being in CAHOOTS.If that does turn out to be the case, be short the US Dollar, long Gold, long Energy, long Agricultural Commodities, long Strategic Metals.Indeed, the XLE Energy Sector ETF is now THE UPSIDE LEADER in the US stock market, after violating a two-decade long downtrend line, relative to the S+P 500.The new paradigm for investors...buying STUFF "over" PAPER IOUs!Get the details on ALL these things, in Season Four, Episode #8...of Money, Markets & New Age Investing. Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us Fan MailBad beats come in Poker and in the Markets, but it is only about the MATH and the probabilities RULE over time.Markets have taken a bad beat from the constant all-in bluff shoves from DJT...but the end is near, Trump has folded after Iran and Oman sort out a deal on the Strait of Hormuz that does NOT involve the US, and thus the FOCUS of the markets will RETURN to the macro-data, which offers much more clarity, than has this debacle of a "war".Yes, the focus is back to playing the high probability outcomes, and Friday's Labor market data changes the game. I have been saying since LAST YEAR that the Labor market was HOLLOWING OUT, DEFLATING from within, and it would FORCE the Fed to choose between fighting still rising inflation or protecting consumer final demand growth. Bessent gave us the best clue as to what the choice will be when, out of FEAR about a Bond market crisis, he chose to use US taxpayer money to bail out the Japanese Yen.As I have also said since last year, STAGFLATION is the REAL force in the economy and would force the Fed to acquiesce to higher inflation rates, to save the consumer, so that we can continue to finance our $40 trillion in Public Debt without generating a debt deflation event.As such the USDX is increasingly at risk...and Gold, Silver, Copper, Uranium and the Chinese Renminbi are in the process of breaking out and resuming their long-term SECULAR BULL MARKETS, with new record highs in sight over the next 12-24 months.Get my SPECIFIC recommendations as per the positions to start accumulating now, in today's episode of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing.” Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us Fan MailThe talking heads in the pop-media covering both the financial markets and political scene are CELEBRATING an (alleged) victory in the Iran War with the signing of the MOU and talking about Gasoline prices collapsing back to $2 a gallon.Politicians and market pundits are suggesting that the upside acceleration in Gasoline prices is DEAD…thus, the upside acceleration in US CPI/PCE/PPI inflation is also… DEAD.Yes, on social media and in the pop-financial and political rah-rah TV…the song rings out…Ding Dong the Witch is Dead!The Witch…being Iran’s sponsored terror…Iran’s nuclear program…and, thus…US inflation…ALL DEAD, right?Yeah, not so fast! The Strait is NOT free-and-clear, Iran just got 60 days to prolong the Uranium supply negotiations, the agreement states that the MOU could be extended INDEFINITLEY…and…the terms have already been VIOLATED. And EVEN if the War is OVER, and the Strait OPENED, the fundamental supply-demand situation in both Crude Oil and Gasoline REMAINS BULLISH…and is most likely to STAY that way through the summer and into the November US election period.Thus, as I stated previously, a decline in prices down to $65-$75 in WTI Crude Oil…and the $2.40-$2.60 level in Gasoline, would be viewed as a BUYING opportunity, particularly with LOW Open Interest in both contracts, removing the threat of a prolonged and deep price decline predicted by a massive liquidation of long positions.Moreover, the US PPI data offered EYE-POPPING levels of pipeline inflation in most sectors, particularly, again, SERVICES. This just days after the CPI data revealed ANOTHER upside acceleration in…Service CPI inflation!You NEED to HEAR these numbers! The Inflation Witch is not only NOT DEAD…she is STRONGER THAN EVER!Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us Fan MailIn today's podcast, Greg tackles the GLOBE, from Europe to the US to Asia, to show how stagflation is intensifying amid a further tightening in global monetary conditions, and an appreciation in the US Dollar, as Central Banks are lining up to hike official short-term interest rates, and credit conditions are becoming dangerously "tight". Against this backdrop sustained high US price inflation in services, and a fractured labor market has pushed Consumer Confidence to new all-time lows, while Retail Sales growth is dominated by rising Sales (AKA prices) at Gasoline Stations, while spending at Eating and Drinking Establishments and Vehicle Sales are DISINFLATING at an alarming pace.Yes, CAPEX spending on AI data center build-outs is skyrocketing and output of Semiconductors-Computer Peripheral Equipment SOARS, the FACT is that these three things account for only 16% of GDP, while Consumer Spending and the Service sector still accounts for 71% of GDP. The disconnect between Consumer final demand disinflation, and new all-time high in US stock indexes has NEVER been greater. Moreover, the current long-term momentum driving the US stock market higher is as stretched and extended as it has EVER BEEN. Throw in the fact that Gold is now breaking down versus nearly every paper currency on the planet......and the stage is all but set for an all-out "asset price deflation event"!This IS..."The Great Divide; the Stock Market vs the Economy”Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us Fan MailStagflation Reigns!Six days of horrifically WEAK macro-economic data in the US, particularly in the Labor Market report from the BLS, and ISM Service Sector Survey, in tandem with a new and broadening upside acceleration in CPI price inflation, offers HARD EVIDENCE that price inflation will be a dagger in the back of Consumer final demand growth, which will lead to a cocooning consumer and deflation in consumption...and...to a LOWER US DOLLAR.This in turn means Gold and Silver are likely "back in play", and the coming El Nino would team up with a depreciating US currency, to send Agricultural Commodities higher, while posing a deflation risk to the equity market!Get the "gory data details" in The Six Day War; Stagflation Reigns!Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us Fan MailThe US FOMC is playing the ole Shell Game with this past week's "SEP"!Where is the Pea? (AKA US Consumer Final Demand Growth)Shell One:  Inflation NO HIGHER than 3% this year, 2.5% in 2027, and 2.2% in 2028.Shell Two:  Nominal GDP Growth of +5.2% in 2027.Shell Three:  NO Change in Unemployment Rate 4.4%, same in 2027 and 2028 (but maybe on tick higher to 4.5%), either way reflects virtually NO impact from AI.Wild Card:  Fed envisions a top-end Fed Funds Rate of FOUR PERCENT (3.9%) next year, based on growth in “real” GDP to 3% or higher!There is NO PEA to be found…The Fed’s narrative is overly optimistic, an expert misdirection, yes. But one that flirts with the realm of being a “con”!Either way…the Fed only wants, and needs, you to believe that the PEA IS THERE to be FOUND!Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us Fan MailLast year was a HIGHLY profitable year for us...in my CTA performance, the results from following the recommendations in the Global-Macro Strategy Report, my market research business...and in terms of the advice I offered YOU, right here, in my podcast.But in this business the ONLY question is...what is next? What are you going to do for me now?Indeed, I have answers, and start 2026 with a top-down, big-picture macro-economic, global FX-Debt, currency-commodity overview, in today's episode (S4 E2) "The Two-Penny Dollar", within which I show you how today's "dollar" buys ONLY TWO-CENTS worth of goods-services, relative to the purchasing power of $1.00 in 1973...and how $58 trillion in Household-and-Public Debt...and...a renewed rise in inflation...is a MAJOR headwind going forward, as per US consumer final demand. Further, the implosion in the Japanese Government Bond market, and secular long-term bullish breakout in the Chinese Renminbi, all combine to put the USD on its heels.What is next? A secular decline in the US Dollar, and the resultant impact on Stocks, Bonds and Commodities, globally.I discuss and offer details as to...what is coming next, thanks to "The Two-Penny Dollar".AND I offer the 145 Chart Pack that offers a visual, to my words, FREE. You are going to WANT TO SEE THIS, and EVERYONE SHOULD SEE THIS!Email me directly to request it:   [email protected] Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us Fan MailThe premiere episode for season FOUR of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing” is a MUST LISTEN!Greg notes FIVE KEY "tipping points" that have ALL pushed past their "stabilization angle". The tipping points are now TIPPED!The Age of Polarization is continuing to intensify, and 2025 is just a PREVIEW of what's to come in 2026. Today, Greg shares his insights and vision as to what the future holds, as he has personally experienced this macro-market-monetary evolution for the last four decades! And remember to follow the Podcast on Instagram, NOT Instacart, as Greg mistakenly calls it in a funny mis-speak, type in the title of the podcast to find it or simply use the link below, also on X @money_podcast, and follow Greg personally @WeldonLIVE. All of our updated links are available below.And to get Greg's just published 145 page Special Report, full of easy to read (and really "cool") charts that offer details on US Debt-Deficits, the US Consumer, the Housing market, Employment, Inflation, Stagflation, Fed Policy, the USD...and the Metals-Mining markets, with their superior performance this year, as was presciently "called" by Greg, email him directly at [email protected] Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us Fan MailThe world's most important EVER, highest stakes EVER, poker match is set to take place this coming week, between China's Xi and Trump from the US. These two shrewd operators, sharks both, have been playing back at one another for weeks, months in fact, and recently the stakes went up.Trump, holding a strong hand defined by Chips-AI-Quantum-Tech bet big earlier this month, splashing the threat of 150% tariffs onto the felt, "floating" the hand, on a bluff...(since he understands the US does NOT hold the best hand).Xi responded by pushing "all-in" with the October 9th release of “Announcement No. 61/2025: Decision in Implementing Export Controls on Foreign Related Rare Earth Items, Rare-Earth-Related Technologies, Lithium Batteries and Artificial Graphite Anode Material Related Items".Poker is a game of "I know that you know, that I know, that you know, that I know AND you know I'm bluffing, but you know that I know you can't "call". Trump tried to pull off a bluff, and Xi "came-over-the-top" and raised "all in". The question is, how will Trump respond?Understanding just HOW IMPORTANT these elements, oxides, metals, and even manufactured products are, is to understand HOW FAR BEHIND the US truly is, and how DOMINANT China has become, with a four-decade long game plan that has left the US "reliant", held "hostage”...to China on Rare Earths! We are waiting to hear what Xi wants...and you know, that I know, that you know, EXACTLY what Xi wants.It is NOT Chips-AI build out, NO! Xi wants Taiwan, which has ALL of the above, already in place, thanks to the US.What happens next week will be historic, one way or the other. A deal that placates the US...or Xi sticking with the "long game", and leaving Export Restrictions in place, possibly driving US equity indexes sharply lower, helping lift unemployment, at a time when social unrest, outright violence, and politicians "declaring independence from the Federal Government”, has created total chaos, domestically. We are already at war with ourselves, divided from within, while also battling drug cartels, Venezuela, Colombia, and Chinese interests in Peru!! Are we really prepared to, or even willing to, "fight" China right now?Xi's Maoist vision of Asian "manifest destiny", groomed by the CCP since 1959, for THIS MOMENT, his father was killed during an assassination attempt on Chairman Mao...and...the demise of the US currency...both... could be in sight, lying in wait, and the repercussions for global markets would be Earth-shaking.Learn EXACTLY why I say this, all the gory details, history, data, stats and FACTS as to why this is SO important, and what the possible outcomes might be, by listening to the most important podcast I have produced to date Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us Fan MailIn my view, Jay Powell has become "a problem", though NOT because he’s a bad guy with evil intent. I do not believe that. In fact, he seems like a genuinely “nice guy”!BUT, having said that, he IS an “egghead, an overthinking, theoretical, no action, no skin in the game, no blood-no foul, ACADEMIC.Jerome Powell is a monetary PURIST and thus, beyond Employment and Inflation…NOTHING ELSE MATTERS!The Consumer Cocoon…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.The Credit Crunch and Delinquency Epidemic…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.The DEFLATION in “real” Retail final demand…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.The Housing Crisis…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.The Economy, DEFLATION in the Service sector in particular…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.Well, guess what, there IS ALREADY a RECESSION underway in ALL the above!But it matters NOT, because the ECONOMY and the CONSUMER…matter NOT…not to eggheaded monetary purists like Jerome Powell, who FAIL when it comes to having vision, having the “stones” to be AHEAD of the curve!Powell has MISSED EVERY “TURN” in his entire tenure as the Fed Chair, sorry, that is the SIMPLE FACT!His Fed has been BEHIND THE MONETARY CURVE at every key turning point!And he is MISSING it again, WAY behind the curve this time, and for just ONE reason, in his mind there are not enough LAYOFFS yet to tilt the scales towards getting to a NEUTRAL POLICY as quickly as feasible. He believes this even though there are ample signs that layoffs are EXACTLY what is coming next.Worse yet, from the political side, the Fed actually REVISED their Labor market projections to reflect STRENGTHENING job gains over the NEXT TWO YEARS, offering a vision that includes NO MORE RATE CUTS AT ALL!For sure, several “dots” reflected that exact projection, and Powell went so far as to SAY SO, during his press-conference (I discuss within the podcast).And, at the end of the day, with the onerous Public and Household Debt, $55 trillion in total, INFLATION is here to stay, as “reflating” is the only way to maintain growth, which is necessary to facilitate the SERVICING of debt, now “priced” at over $1 trillion per year in Public Debt interest expense alone!The time for academic solutions, the time for eggheads to spend hours discussing the nuances of nothingness…are far behind us.The Fed has “lost it", and Jay Powell is “flipping off” every hardworking American, and more so, those who CAN'T FIND WORK!Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels