S3 E13: China vs USA - High Stakes Poker

Send us a textThe world's most important EVER, highest stakes EVER, poker match is set to take place this coming week, between China's Xi and Trump from the US. These two shrewd operators, sharks both, have been playing back at one another for weeks, months in fact, and recently the stakes went up.Trump, holding a strong hand defined by Chips-AI-Quantum-Tech bet big earlier this month, splashing the threat of 150% tariffs onto the felt, "floating" the hand, on a bluff...(since he understands the US does NOT hold the best hand).Xi responded by pushing "all-in" with the October 9th release of “Announcement No. 61/2025: Decision in Implementing Export Controls on Foreign Related Rare Earth Items, Rare-Earth-Related Technologies, Lithium Batteries and Artificial Graphite Anode Material Related Items".Poker is a game of "I know that you know, that I know, that you know, that I know AND you know I'm bluffing, but you know that I know you can't "call". Trump tried to pull off a bluff, and Xi "came-over-the-top" and raised "all in". The question is, how will Trump respond?Understanding just HOW IMPORTANT these elements, oxides, metals, and even manufactured products are, is to understand HOW FAR BEHIND the US truly is, and how DOMINANT China has become, with a four-decade long game plan that has left the US "reliant", held "hostage”...to China on Rare Earths! We are waiting to hear what Xi wants...and you know, that I know, that you know, EXACTLY what Xi wants.It is NOT Chips-AI build out, NO! Xi wants Taiwan, which has ALL of the above, already in place, thanks to the US.What happens next week will be historic, one way or the other. A deal that placates the US...or Xi sticking with the "long game", and leaving Export Restrictions in place, possibly driving US equity indexes sharply lower, helping lift unemployment, at a time when social unrest, outright violence, and politicians "declaring independence from the Federal Government”, has created total chaos, domestically. We are already at war with ourselves, divided from within, while also battling drug cartels, Venezuela, Colombia, and Chinese interests in Peru!! Are we really prepared to, or even willing to, "fight" China right now?Xi's Maoist vision of Asian "manifest destiny", groomed by the CCP since 1959, for THIS MOMENT, his father was killed during an assassination attempt on Chairman Mao...and...the demise of the US currency...both... could be in sight, lying in wait, and the repercussions for global markets would be Earth-shaking.Learn EXACTLY why I say this, all the gory details, history, data, stats and FACTS as to why this is SO important, and what the possible outcomes might be, by listening to the most important podcast I have produced to date Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textIn my view, Jay Powell has become "a problem", though NOT because he’s a bad guy with evil intent. I do not believe that. In fact, he seems like a genuinely “nice guy”!BUT, having said that, he IS an “egghead, an overthinking, theoretical, no action, no skin in the game, no blood-no foul, ACADEMIC.Jerome Powell is a monetary PURIST and thus, beyond Employment and Inflation…NOTHING ELSE MATTERS!The Consumer Cocoon…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.The Credit Crunch and Delinquency Epidemic…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.The DEFLATION in “real” Retail final demand…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.The Housing Crisis…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.The Economy, DEFLATION in the Service sector in particular…matters NOT, not until there is a recession.Well, guess what, there IS ALREADY a RECESSION underway in ALL the above!But it matters NOT, because the ECONOMY and the CONSUMER…matter NOT…not to eggheaded monetary purists like Jerome Powell, who FAIL when it comes to having vision, having the “stones” to be AHEAD of the curve!Powell has MISSED EVERY “TURN” in his entire tenure as the Fed Chair, sorry, that is the SIMPLE FACT!His Fed has been BEHIND THE MONETARY CURVE at every key turning point!And he is MISSING it again, WAY behind the curve this time, and for just ONE reason, in his mind there are not enough LAYOFFS yet to tilt the scales towards getting to a NEUTRAL POLICY as quickly as feasible. He believes this even though there are ample signs that layoffs are EXACTLY what is coming next.Worse yet, from the political side, the Fed actually REVISED their Labor market projections to reflect STRENGTHENING job gains over the NEXT TWO YEARS, offering a vision that includes NO MORE RATE CUTS AT ALL!For sure, several “dots” reflected that exact projection, and Powell went so far as to SAY SO, during his press-conference (I discuss within the podcast).And, at the end of the day, with the onerous Public and Household Debt, $55 trillion in total, INFLATION is here to stay, as “reflating” is the only way to maintain growth, which is necessary to facilitate the SERVICING of debt, now “priced” at over $1 trillion per year in Public Debt interest expense alone!The time for academic solutions, the time for eggheads to spend hours discussing the nuances of nothingness…are far behind us.The Fed has “lost it", and Jay Powell is “flipping off” every hardworking American, and more so, those who CAN'T FIND WORK!Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textIn today's podcast Greg rewinds to review his January 2025 Year-Ahead Outlook, his major macro-market trading/investment "themes":-- Consumer Cocoon/Credit Crunch-- Fed Acquiescing to Higher Rates of Inflation-- Yield Curve Steepening-- US Dollar Depreciation and Geo-Political Realignment-- Rotation of Wall Street Money into Precious Metals Mining SharesIndeed, as of September 5th these themes have been DOMINANT as per their influence on the global markets, particularly when it comes to the stellar outperformance by Gold & Silver Mining Shares/ETFs.Greg takes a look at how his top picks in the Mining sector have performed over the last fifty-two weeks, most with TRIPLE-DIGIT rates-of-return!!!Hopefully listeners and followers took full advantage of Greg's keen and prescient insights, instincts, and investment recommendations!!! Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textIn this episode of Money, Markets & New Age Investing Greg puts forth a new macro-thematic thought process as a way to answer what has become THE MOST asked question of the year…"why now, why after decades of worry, does the US Public Debt MATTER???"The answer is simply physics, and a study of "stabilization" and "rotational angles", and the physics behind how a seesaw "works".Just like Greg's "Debt Black Hole" analogy...the "see-saw", Pete Seger's "Teaspoons of Sand" theory, and the dynamics linked to mass, weight, and angles...to suggest that see-saw has FLIPPED, away from GDP growth, Income growth, Discretionary Spending growth...and the see-saw is now weighed-down by TRILLIONS of spoonful's of sand, which now FAR "outweighs" the economy's capacity to produce growth, without relying on even MORE DEBT.The Fed remains behind-the-monetary-policy-curve, and the Mortgage REITS, Property Developer's shares, the Dow Transportation Average, and Consumer Discretionary sectors got WHACKED last week, as the Fed is facing a Housing market CRISIS, Deflation in the Labor market, a Consumer Credit contraction, and NOW HIGHER INFLATION thanks to Trump's tariffs.The Consumer has reached the tipping point.The Mortgage market has reached the tipping point.The Housing market has reached the tipping point.The Labor market has reached the tipping point.And without the Fed, the Stock-Bond Ratio stands directly in HARM'S WAY, at its most over-valued level EVER, by a factor of more than 2:1, beyond the high in 2000, the high in 2007, and the high in 2018, all of which preceded a MAJOR decline in equity indexes.Yes, the Stock market has also reached...a tipping point...particularly when stock indexes are compared to Bonds and/or Gold.What to do???Start by listening to today's episode, and for Greg's recent US Macro-Market Special Focus, 47 pages of mega-cool charts and thoughts...email Greg directly at [email protected] Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textThe current macro-economic “narrative” is as follows:1.      The Consumer remains "strong", with a "healthy" Balance Sheet2.      The Labor Market remains "solid." In today's podcast I use FACTS, data and simple mathematics to COMPLETELY blow up that narrative and debunk the greatest macro-economic myth out there right now, that the Consumer remains in a "strong" position, with a "healthy" balance sheet, and that the Labor market remains "solid". The macro-economic data is SOLID, in suggesting the complete OPPOSITE is true, that the Consumer is CHOKING, their Balance Sheet imploding, and a Consumer Cocoon and Credit Crunch is now well underway, more so as the Labor market gets a whiff of outright DEFLATION in the June Employment Situation Report for June. Throw in the New York Federal Reserve Bank's June Consumer Survey, revealing that Consumers fully expect that "real" (inflation-adjusted) Wage-Earnings-Income will DEFLATE by anywhere from (-) 0.7% to as much as (-) 2.1%, depending on Income Level, with those Earning $50,000 per year or less getting CRUSHED!!! As for the Labor market, if not for a +329,000 increase in the Number of People NOT in the Labor Force (AKA dropouts) the Unemployment Rate would have RISEN, as 8 of 19 industries tracked by the BLS posted OUTRIGHT JOB LOSSES, the most in four years ... while Average Weekly Earnings DEFLATED in June, as 14 of 19 industries reported LESS Hours Worked, with the Aggregate Hours Index, used by economists as a proxy for GDP, posted a (-) 3.6% annualized contraction!!!And, Revolving Credit has been DEFLATING on a monthly, and year-year basis, something seen only two other times in US History, in 2008-09 global financial crisis, and the 2020 global health crisis ... thanks in part to a RARE DECLINE in PCE Personal Income, which fell (-) $125 billion in June, leading to an across-the-board decline in Spending!!!Strong??? Yeah, NOTHealthy??? Yeah, NOT Weak??? Hell Yes!!!ILL??? Hell Yes!!! So, what to do, investment wise??I answer that by asking YOU, Got Metals??  Got Crypto??If not, get some NOW!!! Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textAs a tsunami of "supply" rolls towards the shores of the US Treasury market ... it’s hard to envision how US Bond yields don't rise further unless, or more realistically until, the Fed takes action, taking the 30-Year T- Bond above 5% and calling into question the underlying "credibility" of the US Bond market.Indeed, the top-down secular fundamentals for both the US Treasury market and the value of the US currency is DECIDELY BEARISH, as it pertains to the Debt Black Hole the US has entered.Oddly enough, Greg has noted a "tight" and intensifying positive correlation between the yield on the US 30-Year T-Bond and the price of Bitcoin.In fact, the ONLY time BTC (spot futures) has been above $100,000 has correlated with a move in the US 30-Year T-Bond yield above 5%.Moreover, BTC is breaking out on a long-term trend basis versus the 30-Year T-Bond (price) and has reached a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH versus the Treasury market AND the US stock market, on a Ratio Spread basis.ONLY Gold is holding firm WITH Bitcoin...precisely as Greg has been highlighting for months.Find out WHY Greg asks the question, Is Bitcoin the "new" T-Bond, and is Gold the new "US Dollar"?And find out WHY Greg believes the simple "math" is MORE than the Bond market can handle and could be THE "cause" that drives the Fed into acquiescing to higher inflation, to protect growth and the Bond market. Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textAt the risk of aging myself, I vividly remember Mad Magazine as a kid, and the goofy, enigmatic, care-free character Alfred E. Neuman.Alfred was famous for being care-free with the buzz phrase..."What, Me Worry?"As the Trade War intensifies, I ask, who is "worried" out there?Well Donald Trump is hoping China is worried. The Donald is hoping that Fed Chair Powell is worried.But both of these individuals are giving us their BEST "Alfred E. Neuman" imitation.What? Me, Worry?Powell can "wait", he is NOT worried.Xi Jinping can "wait", as he just secured a $400 billion trade surplus windfall, thanks to a pre-tariff BOOM in Exports. There is NO inflation in China. Retail Sales are growing at a near +6% year-year rate. Industrial Production is surging, the Labor market has stabilized, the stock market is NOT plunging like it is in the US, leaving only the deflated Property market (and maybe the Banks) as a potential source of worry.Bottom line, Xi is NOT "worried".Trump has tried to bully both Xi and Powell...but neither are worried, and neither has flinched (nor is likely to anytime soon).The ONLY people who are WORRIED right now...US Consumers, and US Equity market bulls.This has been bearish for the USD and Stock Indexes...and wildly bullish for Gold and Canadian Gold Mining shares, JUST LIKE I'VE SAID IT WOULD BE since January, and more specifically in the last several episodes of Money, Markets & New Age Investing. Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textStagflation, Supermassive Debt Black Holes, Consumer Cocoons, FOMC Policy, Trump Tariffs, the Financial pop-media, the Stock Market, US Dollar and Gold...Greg "talks" all these topics in this recent interview, hosted by an industry legend, the original Wall Street Whiz Kid, Peter Grandich, one-time agent and money manager to some of New York's most iconic professional athletes, now retired.Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textA multitude of macro-monetary storm fronts are converging on the US Dollar and are coming from a variety of directions, putting the US currency on the defensive, and opening the door for a technically significant violation of the multi-year bull market trend.Indeed, the US Dollar is on the verge of executing a major long-term, secular-trend-reversal to the downside, one that would (will) carry serious, game-changing consequences for ALL major markets, particularly as Germany and France move towards fiscal loosening, debt expansion, and money printing to pay for increased defense spending, driving the EUR sharply higher, and as Eastern European currencies soar on hopes for an end to the Russo-Ukraine War.Throw in a US consumer who remains in the chokehold of inflation and is ready to "tap out", as Tariff Wars pushes inflation expectations dramatically higher, AND mix-in a mini-meltdown in asset prices linked to Semiconductor sector and Crypto...and BAM, the Perfect Storm is forming!In today’s episode of Money, Markets & New Age Investing, "The Perfect Storm". I will share with you where you might seek "cover" from the storm!Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels

Send us a textIn this episode Greg discusses:The two biggest macro-economic dislocations in US history, as the main secular "themes" for 2025 (and beyond).The micro-details in the form of the simple mathematics that clearly illustrate and define those two macro-dislocations.And the markets...what to do! Two specific strategies that anyone can deploy within the stock market to help protect the purchasing power of your money, income and wealth.Support the showhttps://twitter.com/money_podcastMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcast@money_podcasthttps://instagram.com/age_of_polarization_investingMoney, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094931703462Money, Markets & New Age Investing Podcasthttps://www.youtube.com/@GregoryWeldonhttps://www.youtube.com/@MoneyMarketsNewAgeInvestingPodOur YouTube Channels