EU Market Open: Iran reiterates that the Strait will not reopen until its conditions are met; European equities set for a slightly lower open

US President Trump signed an order to waive off-road requirements to allow anyone to purchase tax-free red-dyed diesel.French RN leader Le Pen said France could face a default if President Macron policy continues, while announcing a French deficit target of 3%of GDP by 2032 at the latest.Global equities bid as energy benchmarks fall throughout the European morning (Brent -2.0%).DXY near the 102.00 handle; EUR pares back Monday's losses as EGBs rebound.Fixed income benchmarks climb; JGBs helped by a strong 10-year auction and hawkish BoJ sources.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), EIA STEO. Speakers include ECB's Zigman, Elderson & Cipollone, Fed's Williams, Bowman & Schmid. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he is always open to direct talks with Iran and that it will all work out regarding the Saudis and Houthis.US President Trump said the Iran war will end soon and that the US secured the Strait of Hormuz; UKMTO separately reported a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait.APAC stocks traded mostly higher following the positive handover from Wall St; European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open.Crude futures were range-bound amid a slew of geopolitical headlines; 10yr UST futures traded little changed after yesterday’s retreat as the curve bear steepened.DXY remained afloat after gaining yesterday against most G10 FX peers amid the continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields.Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (Aug), EZ Retail Sales (Aug), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), EIA STEO. Speakers include BoE's Mann, ECB's Zigman, Elderson & Cipollone, Fed's Williams, Bowman & Schmid. Supply from the UK, Germany & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A US official told Semafor that there is a real possibility that Iran may want to inflict some pain on US President Trump before the midterms, and that Iran may do something in the next couple of weeks.Yemen's government launched a campaign against the Houthis, recapturing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.Spanish PM Sanchez called for an early election after the government failed to pass a housing bill through the Spanish Congress.Energy benchmarks fall, with price action choppy after reports that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is reportedly flowing as normal, despite earlier contrary reports.US equity futures muted; Spanish assets benefiting from Bolsonaro's lead in Brazil.DXY bid but off best levels, EUR further hit on fiscal and political woes.Fixed income benchmarks mixed, as OATs continue to underperform.Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P Services/Composite PMI Final (Sep), ISM Services PMI (Sep). Speakers include ECB's Kocher & Fed's Goolsbee.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said that he will be making a decision on Iran; Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are met.APAC stocks began the week mostly higher in holiday-thinned conditions; US equity futures pared early upside in the absence of major fresh catalysts.DXY strengthened to start the week; EUR/USD weakened overnight to its lowest since May last year, with the single currency not helped by the unrest in France.Crude futures ultimately retreated despite the initial upside seen amid the ongoing US-Iran stalemate; 10yr UST futures gradually rebounded.Looking ahead, highlights include Global S&P Services/Composite PMI Final (Sep), EU PPI (Aug), and US ISM Services PMI (Sep). Speakers include ECB's Schnabel & Fed's Goolsbee.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Energy complex falls on reports that the EU discussed a proposal to release diesel from stockpiles (Brent -3.2%, EU Gasoil -5.5%).US equity futures climb, while NKE falls on a downbeat earnings report.DXY slightly lower; JPY gains on hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI.Fixed income benchmarks benefiting from lower energy prices as markets await the US jobs report.Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP (Sep). Speakers include ECB’s Vujcic & Fed's Logan. Credit Ratings update from Scope on the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump reportedly recently told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran in November, WSJ reported.Crude futures paused overnight after rallying yesterday in the continued absence of any progress between the US and Iran.APAC stocks traded mixed following the ultimately choppy performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a slightly higher cash market open.10yr UST futures took a breather after advancing yesterday as yields pulled back from multi-year highs; DXY traded little changed during Asia-Pac hours.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ HICP (Sep), US NFP (Sep). Speakers include ECB’s Vujcic & Fed's Logan. Credit Ratings update from Scope on the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded on Monday that Iran's delegation to the UN General Assembly immediately leave the country after negotiations stalled, according to Axios.The US has reportedly told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a possible export ban, with the US pushing for the release of 120mln barrels of diesel in the next six months, according to sources.US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming after Google releases Gemini 4 Argon.DXY reaches levels not seen since May 2025; CHF supported by safe-haven demand.Fixed income benchmarks under pressure but off worst amid higher energy prices (Brent +2.6%); OATs on high alert amid the draft budget announcement.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims (Sep/26), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include BoE's Mann & Pill, ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Williams & Logan, BoC's Rogers. Earnings from Accenture, McCormick & Nike.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said developments regarding Iran will happen very soon, while saying the US has almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz and the war could end soon.A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded that Iran’s UN delegation immediately leave the US after negotiations stalled.Crude futures gradually retreated overnight amid relatively quiet geopolitical news flow; spot gold mildly rebounded.APAC stocks were mixed as the region takes its cue from the similar performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.DXY eked out slight gains; JPY weakened on Tankan survey; 10yr UST futures were contained after Treasury yields rose across the curve yesterday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI (Sep), French Budget, US Challenger Job Cuts (Sep), Jobless Claims (Sep/26), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include BoE's Bailey, Mann & Pill, ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Williams & Logan, BoC's Rogers. Supply from Spain & France. Earnings from Accenture, McCormick & Nike.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US White House is reportedly tempering expectations of an imminent breakthrough between US-Iran, Semafor reported, with a source suggesting that "the bar is being raised very high."The Iranian government spokesperson said Foreign Minister Araghchi presented President Pezeshkian with a US proposal following his New York trip, which included discussions on Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, IRNA reported.UKMTO said that a crude oil tanker was struck on the port side by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on September 29th.US equity futures pare back earlier gains with Micron earnings on the docket after-hours.DXY continues to fall following dovish comments by Fed's Williams; AUD underperforms following cooler-than-expected inflation.Fixed income benchmarks climb; Gilts weighed on by the upside GDP revision.Energy benchmarks rebound slightly from Tuesday's losses (Brent +1.1%).Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI (Sep), US PCE Price Index (Aug/Q2), GDP Final (Q2), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include ECB’s Elderson & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee & Kashkari. The US Treasury buyback announcement (10-20yr; liquidity support). Earnings from Micron, Accenture & McCormick.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US-Iran talks and efforts by mediators this week yielded little progress, raising the odds of renewed combat, while Qatar will continue efforts despite growing frustrations with both sides, according to Axios.An Iranian diplomatic source said Iran will only be ready to discuss the nuclear issue after the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved and Washington lifts the blockade.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.DXY took a breather after gaining yesterday; 10yr UST futures edged higher overnight following the prior day's steepening.Crude futures were constrained after sliding yesterday following several downside catalysts; Spot gold was little changed beneath the USD 4,200/oz level.Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales (Aug), French CPI (Sep), German State/National CPI (Sep), Italian CPI (Sep), US PCE Price Index (Aug/Q2), GDP Final (Q2), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include ECB’s Elderson & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee & Kashkari. Supply from Germany, US Treasury buyback announcement (10-20yr; liquidity support), Earnings from Micron, Accenture & McCormick.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk