US Market Open: Yields surge weighing on global equities and lifting DXY; JPY lags post-data

Energy complex falls on reports that the EU discussed a proposal to release diesel from stockpiles (Brent -3.2%, EU Gasoil -5.5%).US equity futures climb, while NKE falls on a downbeat earnings report.DXY slightly lower; JPY gains on hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI.Fixed income benchmarks benefiting from lower energy prices as markets await the US jobs report.Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP (Sep). Speakers include ECB’s Vujcic & Fed's Logan. Credit Ratings update from Scope on the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump reportedly recently told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran in November, WSJ reported.Crude futures paused overnight after rallying yesterday in the continued absence of any progress between the US and Iran.APAC stocks traded mixed following the ultimately choppy performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a slightly higher cash market open.10yr UST futures took a breather after advancing yesterday as yields pulled back from multi-year highs; DXY traded little changed during Asia-Pac hours.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ HICP (Sep), US NFP (Sep). Speakers include ECB’s Vujcic & Fed's Logan. Credit Ratings update from Scope on the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded on Monday that Iran's delegation to the UN General Assembly immediately leave the country after negotiations stalled, according to Axios.The US has reportedly told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a possible export ban, with the US pushing for the release of 120mln barrels of diesel in the next six months, according to sources.US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming after Google releases Gemini 4 Argon.DXY reaches levels not seen since May 2025; CHF supported by safe-haven demand.Fixed income benchmarks under pressure but off worst amid higher energy prices (Brent +2.6%); OATs on high alert amid the draft budget announcement.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims (Sep/26), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include BoE's Mann & Pill, ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Williams & Logan, BoC's Rogers. Earnings from Accenture, McCormick & Nike.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said developments regarding Iran will happen very soon, while saying the US has almost total control of the Strait of Hormuz and the war could end soon.A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded that Iran’s UN delegation immediately leave the US after negotiations stalled.Crude futures gradually retreated overnight amid relatively quiet geopolitical news flow; spot gold mildly rebounded.APAC stocks were mixed as the region takes its cue from the similar performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.DXY eked out slight gains; JPY weakened on Tankan survey; 10yr UST futures were contained after Treasury yields rose across the curve yesterday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI (Sep), French Budget, US Challenger Job Cuts (Sep), Jobless Claims (Sep/26), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3). Speakers include BoE's Bailey, Mann & Pill, ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Williams & Logan, BoC's Rogers. Supply from Spain & France. Earnings from Accenture, McCormick & Nike.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US White House is reportedly tempering expectations of an imminent breakthrough between US-Iran, Semafor reported, with a source suggesting that "the bar is being raised very high."The Iranian government spokesperson said Foreign Minister Araghchi presented President Pezeshkian with a US proposal following his New York trip, which included discussions on Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, IRNA reported.UKMTO said that a crude oil tanker was struck on the port side by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on September 29th.US equity futures pare back earlier gains with Micron earnings on the docket after-hours.DXY continues to fall following dovish comments by Fed's Williams; AUD underperforms following cooler-than-expected inflation.Fixed income benchmarks climb; Gilts weighed on by the upside GDP revision.Energy benchmarks rebound slightly from Tuesday's losses (Brent +1.1%).Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI (Sep), US PCE Price Index (Aug/Q2), GDP Final (Q2), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include ECB’s Elderson & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee & Kashkari. The US Treasury buyback announcement (10-20yr; liquidity support). Earnings from Micron, Accenture & McCormick.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US-Iran talks and efforts by mediators this week yielded little progress, raising the odds of renewed combat, while Qatar will continue efforts despite growing frustrations with both sides, according to Axios.An Iranian diplomatic source said Iran will only be ready to discuss the nuclear issue after the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved and Washington lifts the blockade.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.DXY took a breather after gaining yesterday; 10yr UST futures edged higher overnight following the prior day's steepening.Crude futures were constrained after sliding yesterday following several downside catalysts; Spot gold was little changed beneath the USD 4,200/oz level.Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales (Aug), French CPI (Sep), German State/National CPI (Sep), Italian CPI (Sep), US PCE Price Index (Aug/Q2), GDP Final (Q2), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include ECB’s Elderson & Schnabel, Fed’s Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee & Kashkari. Supply from Germany, US Treasury buyback announcement (10-20yr; liquidity support), Earnings from Micron, Accenture & McCormick.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran discussed proposals with Qatari mediators to present to the US, and that a response is to be relayed to Tehran through Qatari mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister said they expect a US response today; Brent -0.2%Iran was reported to have agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, although the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson later denied these reports.US President Trump denied reports that he is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue.European bourses are firmer; US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark.DXY is slightly stronger, holding just shy of 101.50; Aussie lags after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps, though Governor Bullock tilted dovish.Gilts outperform ahead of UK PM Burnham; USTs await data, Fed speak and geopolitical updates.Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS (Aug). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, Vujcic & Lane, Fed’s Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr & Waller, BoC’s Gravelle, BoE's Taylor & Mann. Earnings from Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran discussed proposals with Qatari mediators to present to the US, and that a response is to be relayed to Tehran through Qatari mediators. Iranian Foreign Minister said they expect a US response today.Iran was reported to have agreed to halt enrichment in exchange for easing US sanctions, although the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson later denied these reports.US President Trump denied reports that he is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear issue.The RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 4.60%, as expected, and noted it will raise the cash rate further if needed; Press conference at 06:30 BST.Crude futures edged higher overnight; APAC stocks were mostly subdued; European equity futures indicate a flat/positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Inflation (Sep) & Retail Sales (Aug), EZ Economic Sentiment (Sep), US JOLTS (Aug). Speakers include RBA's Bullock, ECB’s Cipollone, Lagarde, Vujcic & Lane, Fed’s Goolsbee, Williams, Bowman, Barr & Waller, BoC’s Gravelle, BoE's Taylor & Mann. Supply from the UK & Italy. Earnings from Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately. He expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal.Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA; Brent +3.3%.European bourses were initially firmer but now off best levels; NQ -1% lags on elevated yields and tech underperformance.DXY is steady; JPY strengthens on further jawboning from officials.Yields reside at multi-decade highs as energy benchmarks continue to rise; US 10yr holds at 5.23%.Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Barkin, Bowman, Cook and UK Chancellor HealeyRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he rejected a deal from Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated Iran wants to make a deal in which they open the strait immediately.US President Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week even though he rejected Iran’s latest proposal.Iran's delegation in New York has no plans for talks with the US, according to a source close to the delegation cited by IRNA.Crude futures were lifted at the open; 10yr UST futures declined with yields higher across the curve, DXY traded mildly higher amid upside in oil and yields.APAC stocks began the week mixed as higher oil prices spurred hawkish rate bets; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include speeches from ECB’s Elderson & Lagarde, BoE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Barkin. Supply from the Eurozone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk