Implementing a Hellscape Strategy for Taiwan

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about whether the United Nations can and should continue in its current form. Has it outlived its original purposes? Does it serve the interests of the United States and the world? Should the United States continue to reduce its presence at the UN, or should it work to make the international body more relevant and effective? What should be the focus of the Secretary-General who takes the helm in 2027?   Chris is appalled at the unserious leadership at the top of the FBI, Zack has a shoutout for Anthropic, which is working with the US government, financial institutions, and other major entities to understand their vulnerabilities to increasingly sophisticated AI, and Melanie objects to the obvious and growing corruption in Washington.    *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links:   Jeremy Lott, "The president and the pope: Trump tangles with an American pontiff," Washington Examiner, April 17, 2026. Sarah Fitzpatrict, "The FBI Director Is MIA," The Atlantic, April 17, 2026. Christopher Preble and Lucas Ruiz, "Why Strategic Superiority (Still) Doesn't Matter: Nuclear Crises and the Failure of Theory," April 16, 2026. "Untangling the Web of US Alliances," Stimson Center, In-Person and Online Event, May 5, 2026. Peter Caddick-Adams, Can the United Nations Survive?", Engelsberg Ideas, April 15, 2026. Impact Exchange: Reimagining Economies Through Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, February 24, 2026. Volodymyr Zelensky, X post, April 19, 2026. Saikrishna Prakash, The Presidential Pardon: The Short Clause with a Long, Troubled History.

On this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack consider whether the porcupine strategy that Taiwan is currently implementing is the best plan to deter or defend against China. What could Taiwan be doing better, and how can the United States and other friendly countries help? And have we learned any lessons from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz that are relevant to a Taiwan conflict? Chris laments the administration's proposed defense budget, and Melanie pans VP JD Vance for going to Hungary to campaign for Victor Orban. Zack gives a shout out to the astronauts and engineers behind Artemis II, and Melanie commends the U.S. military's successful rescue of downed pilots in Iran.    Show Links:   Stacie Pettyjohn and Molly Campbell, "Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age," War on the Rocks, March 27, 2026. Stacie Pettyjohn and Molly Campbell, "Hellscape for Taiwan: Rethinking Asymmetric Defense," CNAS, February 26, 2026. Stephanie Yang, "As Taiwan steels its defenses against China, some are hatching escape plans," CNN, April 3, 2026. Editorial, "Taiwan's self-defense paradox," Washington Post, April 5, 2026. Raymond Kuo and Catherine Kish, "Taiwan's Will to Fight Isn't the Problem," War on the Rocks, September 5, 2025. Alastair Gale, Japan's Tomahawk Missile Order Delayed by US Use in Iran, Bloomberg, April 3, 2026. Gerry Doyle, "US Deploys Bulk of Stealthy Long-Range Missiles for Iran War," Bloomberg, April 4, 2026. Phil Stewart, Idrees Ali, and Humeyra Pamuk, "How a Perilous US Rescue Mission in Iran Nearly Went Off Course," Reuters, April 7, 2026.  Supporting Stimson

What are the goals in the US war in Iran? Is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz manageable, or is the Iranian threat to shipping a challenge that must be confronted? And can it be resolved at an acceptable cost? Melanie, Chris, and Zack, discuss the latest from the war, with a particular focus on the threat posed to international shipping in the vital waterway. Grievances for Jeremy Corbyn, and for the Trump administration's decision to remove sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. Attas to Japanese Prime Minister Takaichii Sanae for navigating her meeting with President Trump, to a federal judge for affirming that the press has First Amendment rights, and to Sean Penn for skipping the Academy Awards ceremony. Melania also acknowledges the incredible life and career of New York Times' war reporter John Burns who passed this month.   Show Links:   Caitlin Talmadge, "The Hormuz Minefield: In the Strait, Iran Holds the Advantage—and America Has No Good Options," Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2026. Rosemary Kelanic, "Trump Is Making Jimmy Carter's Mistake on Iran and Oil," New York Times, March 9, 2026. Charlie Savage, "Striking Down Pentagon Press Limits, Judge Vindicates Independent Journalism," New York Times, March 20, 2026. Michael Cohen and Christopher Preble, "The Perils of Lethality," Stimson Center, June 24, 2026 Phil Klay, "Trump Has Made a Fundamental Miscalculation about Iran," New York Times, March 22, 2026. Eli Stokols, Ben Johansen, Jack Detsch, and Paul McLeary, "Inside the White House Plan to Sell the Iran War Online," Politico, March 18, 2026. Alan Cowell, "John F. Burns, Prize-Winning Foreign Correspondent for The Times, Dies at 81," New York Times, March 13, 2026. Jack Watling, "Iran's Hormuz Blockade is Its Most Powerful Card Against Trump and Israel. It Won't Back Down Easily," The Guardian, March 16, 2026.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about how America's allies and partners, after decades of relying on the US for security, are derisking from what they view as an increasingly unpredictable and unfriendly power. How much of their hedging is about President Trump, and how much is due to the growing clout of middle powers, world events, or other factors? What should our allies be doing to constructively protect themselves in terms of their economic and national security? And what do the reactions of world leaders to the conflict in Iran tell us about how they view their relationships with the United States?   Chris has a grievance for people, especially those with inside information, betting on war, Zack congratulates Congress for exercising its oversight responsibilities, and Melanie wonders what the purpose of the UN even is anymore.    Show Links:   James M. Lindsay, "Will US Allies Succeed in Hedging Against the United States?", Council on Foreign Relations, February 18, 2026. Shayan Sardarizadeh, X feed. Emmanuel Macron, Speech on France's Nuclear Deterrence, March 4, 2026. "At Last, Reasons to be Cheerful about European Tech," The Economist, March 1, 2026. Henry J. Gomez, "Vance's anti-war posture collides with his more hawkish views on Iran," NBC News, March 3, 2026. Chris Cook, Oliver Hawkins, Eade Hemingway and Stephanie Stacey, "Polymarket users won big with unusual bets on US attack on Iran," Financial Times, March 3, 2026 Flight 93 National Memorial (U.S. National Park Service)

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the wisdom of President Trump's proposal for a Golden Fleet of new American "battleships." They question the strategic logic, timelines, cost estimates, and political dynamics behind the proposal. Chris commends USA Hockey for its gold medal performance at the Olympics while Melanie questions Eileen Gu's comments there and Zack expresses appreciation for the Supreme Court's tariff decision.   Show Links:   Eli Rosenberg, "Who is US women's hockey star Megan Keller? A BC alum, and more," NBC Connecticut, February 19, 2026. Christopher A. Preble and Celia Clark, "The Brooklyn Navy Yard revived | 12 | A defense conversion case study," 2016. Sam Mercoliagno, X post, February 22, 2026. Ben Jensen, "Why the Golden Fleet Will Sail," CSIS, January 9, 2026.   Fighting Instructions, US Navy, February 9, 2026.   Carline Downey, "Alysa Liu Is a Spunky, Gen Z National Treasure and a Force of American Athleticism," National Review, February 21, 2026. Sean Gregory, "'I Don't Believe in Limits': How Eileen Gu Became Freestyle Skiing's Biggest Star," Time, January 22, 2026. Trent Hone, "Why the U.S. Navy Doesn't Build Battleships Anymore," War on the Rocks, January 12, 2026. Mark Cancian, "The Golden Fleet's Battleship Will Never Sail," CSIS, December 23, 2025. U.S. Navy, "Webpage currently under construction," accessed February 24, 2026. Ellen Nakashima et al., "Tulsi Gabbard's appearances at Fulton County FBI raid raises questions," Washington Post, January 30, 2026 Zack Cooper, "Asia After America," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026  

In this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack, discuss a recent Council on Foreign Relations special report which explores varies grand strategies, and proposes an alternative known as "Resolute Global Leadership." Is this strategy realistic? Does it accurately assess the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives? And what did the report leave out, or fail to develop adequately, to ensure that it will succeed where others failed? Grievances for what Jeff Bezos has done to the Washington Post, to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for their doomsday clock, and to Donald Trump for weighing in on the Japanese parliamentary elections in favor of Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party. Attas to Takaichi for her stunning and unprecedented victory, to Javier Milei for turning around Argentina's economy, and to Anduril's Palmer Luckey for admitting that the Pentagon spends too much on the wrong stuff.   Show Links:   America Revived: A Grand Strategy of Resolute Global Leadership, Council on Foreign Relations, January 2026 Monica Pitrelli and Sydney Goh, U.S. can spend billions less on defense, says Anduril Industries founder, CNBC, February 6, 2026 Benjamin Mullin, Katie Robertson and Erik Wemple, Washington Post Cuts More Than 300 Jobs, The New York Times, February 4, 2026 Commission on the National Defense Strategy Jack Butler, "A Doomsday Crock," Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2026. 

Zack, Melanie, and special guest Kelly Grieco take a look at the Department of War's 2026 National Defense Strategy. What does a "decent peace" with China look like? Is that what China wants? What does the document get right and wrong about burden-sharing among allies and partners? Will this strategy actually help deliver the "peace through strength" that is so important to this administration? Zack has an atta for the foreign affairs reporters at the Washington Post, Kelly has an atta for the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots, and Melanie has even more grievances for the administration's chaotic tariff policies.    Show Links:   National Defense Strategy, Department of War, January 2026. Editorial Board, "Trump's Tariffs Can't Cover a Bill This Staggering," Washington Post, January 26, 2026. Friedrich Merz, Speech at the World Economic Forum, January 23, 2026. Jim Geraghty, "Tearing Apart NATO, Over a Trinket," January 20, 2026.

Fresh off the shock of the U.S. operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, the Net Assessment team debates the merits of the operation and what it means for Venezuela's future. They also discuss why it caught (some of) them off guard, and what it implies about the Trump administration's decision-making going forward. Chris also questions Trump's proposed defense budget increase, Melanie gives Denmark a badly needed attaboy, and Zack critiques Pete Hegseth's punishment of Mark Kelly. *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links: Emma Salisbury, "The Trump-Class Battleship," Behind the Front, January 8, 2026. Leo Shane III, "The 5 Republicans who voted against Trump on Venezuela," Politico, January 8, 2026. Eric Boehm, "Did Marco Rubio Lie to Congress About Venezuela?" Reason, January 5, 2026. Matthew Cullen, "Trump Said His Global Power Was Limited Only by His 'Own Morality'," New York Times, January 8, 2026. "TCS: President Trump's $1.5 Trillion Budget Proposal Must Be Rejected," Taxpayers for Common Sense, January 7, 2026.                                                                                             "$1.5 Trillion Military Budget Would Add $5.8 Trillion to Debt Over Decade," Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, January 7, 2026. Stephen Collinson, "Trump's new US mission statement: Strength, force, power," CNN, January 6, 2026. David E. Sanger et al., "Trump Lays Out a Vision of Power Restrained Only by 'My Own Morality'," New York Times, January 8, 2026.      

In this special bonus episode, the Net Assessment crew – Chris, Melanie, and Zack - looks back on the highs (and lows) of 2025, and makes a few predictions for 2026. Thanks all around to our listeners, the Stimson Center, and University FM for their fantastic production.   Show Links:   Hadeel al-Salchi, "Search for Body of Last Hostage Held by Hamas in Gaza is Delayed Due to Bad Weather," NPR, December 16, 2025. "Armitage's Story," Last Days in Vietnam, PBS. Justin Bronk, "America's Drone Delusion," Foreign Affairs, December 15, 2025. Christopher Clary, "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025," Stimson Center May 28, 2025. Zack Cooper, "Trump's Strategic Choice: Prioritization or Retrenchment," The American Enterprise, March 5, 2025. The Daily, "Were the Covid Lockdowns Worth It?", March 20, 2025.  Aude Darnal and Christopher Preble, "Conventional Wisdom: The War on Terror Is Over," in "Testing Assumptions About US Foreign Policy in 2025," Stimson Center, February 14, 2025. Jeffrey Friedman, "The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials," Texas National Security Review (Vol 8, Iss 4, Fall 2025, 34-48), https://doi.org/10.1353/tns.00011. Jonathan Guyer, "Donald Trump's Cowboy Diplomacy," The New York Times, December 15, 2025. "In Pursuit of Peace: The Life and Legacy of Barry Blechman," Stimson Center, September 29, 2025.          Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, "Strategies of Prioritization: American Foreign Policy After Primacy," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2025. Aaron Maclean, "A Warning to the Young: Just Say No to AI," Engelsberg Ideas, July 9, 2025. Michael Nienaber, "Germany Powers Ahead With Record Push for Military Buildup," Bloomberg, December 17, 2025. Persuasion, "Frances Lee and Stephen Macedo on Why Institutions Failed During Covid," May 17, 2025.  Christopher Preble, X, 1:55 am, October 18,2025. "Prediction Is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels," Net Assessment, October 2, 2025. Joanna Stern, "We Let AI Run Our Office Vending Machine. It Lost Hundreds of Dollars," Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2025.  "Sweden Plans Largest Military Buildup Since the Cold War Amid Russia Threat and Uncertain US-EU Ties," AP, March 26, 2025. "What's the Plan for AI?", Net Assessment, August 7, 2025. Nancy A. Youssef, "So This Is What 'America First' Looks Like," The Atlantic, December 11, 2025.   

In this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack look at U.S. policy toward China. What does the United States, that is Donald Trump, want from China? What should the Trump administration be willing to compromise on to get it? And what does Trump need that China would be willing to give up? Grievances for President Trump's tasteless social media post following the murder of Rob and Michele Reiner; for those who bet on war (and rig the maps to win); and for the Pentagon's attacks on Sen. (and retired Navy Captain) Mark Kelly for daring to suggest that people in the military shouldn't follow unlawful orders. Speaking of unlawful orders, attas to Sen. Kelly and others calling out the Trump admin's dubious case for striking boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Plus a shout out for reporters covering the Trump administration, who manage to break news despite the hurdles.   Show Links:   Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, "Trump vs China is taking a turn," Washington Post, December 16, 2025. Lily Kuo, "From Chips to Security, China Is Getting Much of What It Wants From the U.S.," New York Times, December 12, 2025. Saif Khan, Tao Burga, Tim Fist, and Georgia Adamson, "Should the US Sell Hopper Chips to China?" Institute for Progress, December 7, 2025. Nick Cleveland-Stout, "Think tanker altered Ukraine war map before big Polymarket payout," Responsible Statecraft, December 11, 2025. Al Weaver and Filip Timotija, "Senate GOP Grows Uneasy as Pentagon's Kelly Escalates,"  The Hill, December 17, 2025. Jonathan Gilbert, "China Buys Rare Argentine Wheat Cargo as Milei Trims Tariffs," Bloomberg, December 14, 2025. Alan Beattie, "Donald Trump Stiffs Farmers and China Stiffs Donald Trump," Financial Times, December 15, 2025. Susannah Savage, "Donald Trump's Tariffs Intensify Strain on US Farmers, Deere Warns," Financial Times, December 10, 2025.