Farewell 2025, Hello 2026

In this special bonus episode, the Net Assessment crew – Chris, Melanie, and Zack - looks back on the highs (and lows) of 2025, and makes a few predictions for 2026. Thanks all around to our listeners, the Stimson Center, and University FM for their fantastic production.   Show Links:   Hadeel al-Salchi, "Search for Body of Last Hostage Held by Hamas in Gaza is Delayed Due to Bad Weather," NPR, December 16, 2025. "Armitage's Story," Last Days in Vietnam, PBS. Justin Bronk, "America's Drone Delusion," Foreign Affairs, December 15, 2025. Christopher Clary, "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025," Stimson Center May 28, 2025. Zack Cooper, "Trump's Strategic Choice: Prioritization or Retrenchment," The American Enterprise, March 5, 2025. The Daily, "Were the Covid Lockdowns Worth It?", March 20, 2025.  Aude Darnal and Christopher Preble, "Conventional Wisdom: The War on Terror Is Over," in "Testing Assumptions About US Foreign Policy in 2025," Stimson Center, February 14, 2025. Jeffrey Friedman, "The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials," Texas National Security Review (Vol 8, Iss 4, Fall 2025, 34-48), https://doi.org/10.1353/tns.00011. Jonathan Guyer, "Donald Trump's Cowboy Diplomacy," The New York Times, December 15, 2025. "In Pursuit of Peace: The Life and Legacy of Barry Blechman," Stimson Center, September 29, 2025.          Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, "Strategies of Prioritization: American Foreign Policy After Primacy," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2025. Aaron Maclean, "A Warning to the Young: Just Say No to AI," Engelsberg Ideas, July 9, 2025. Michael Nienaber, "Germany Powers Ahead With Record Push for Military Buildup," Bloomberg, December 17, 2025. Persuasion, "Frances Lee and Stephen Macedo on Why Institutions Failed During Covid," May 17, 2025.  Christopher Preble, X, 1:55 am, October 18,2025. "Prediction Is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels," Net Assessment, October 2, 2025. Joanna Stern, "We Let AI Run Our Office Vending Machine. It Lost Hundreds of Dollars," Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2025.  "Sweden Plans Largest Military Buildup Since the Cold War Amid Russia Threat and Uncertain US-EU Ties," AP, March 26, 2025. "What's the Plan for AI?", Net Assessment, August 7, 2025. Nancy A. Youssef, "So This Is What 'America First' Looks Like," The Atlantic, December 11, 2025.   

In this episode, Chris, Melanie, and Zack look at U.S. policy toward China. What does the United States, that is Donald Trump, want from China? What should the Trump administration be willing to compromise on to get it? And what does Trump need that China would be willing to give up? Grievances for President Trump's tasteless social media post following the murder of Rob and Michele Reiner; for those who bet on war (and rig the maps to win); and for the Pentagon's attacks on Sen. (and retired Navy Captain) Mark Kelly for daring to suggest that people in the military shouldn't follow unlawful orders. Speaking of unlawful orders, attas to Sen. Kelly and others calling out the Trump admin's dubious case for striking boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Plus a shout out for reporters covering the Trump administration, who manage to break news despite the hurdles.   Show Links:   Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, "Trump vs China is taking a turn," Washington Post, December 16, 2025. Lily Kuo, "From Chips to Security, China Is Getting Much of What It Wants From the U.S.," New York Times, December 12, 2025. Saif Khan, Tao Burga, Tim Fist, and Georgia Adamson, "Should the US Sell Hopper Chips to China?" Institute for Progress, December 7, 2025. Nick Cleveland-Stout, "Think tanker altered Ukraine war map before big Polymarket payout," Responsible Statecraft, December 11, 2025. Al Weaver and Filip Timotija, "Senate GOP Grows Uneasy as Pentagon's Kelly Escalates,"  The Hill, December 17, 2025. Jonathan Gilbert, "China Buys Rare Argentine Wheat Cargo as Milei Trims Tariffs," Bloomberg, December 14, 2025. Alan Beattie, "Donald Trump Stiffs Farmers and China Stiffs Donald Trump," Financial Times, December 15, 2025. Susannah Savage, "Donald Trump's Tariffs Intensify Strain on US Farmers, Deere Warns," Financial Times, December 10, 2025. 

Chris, Zack, and Melanie take a look at the Trump administration's newly-released US National Security Strategy. Is it a coherent strategy? How will diplomacy, military might, and economic power be developed and deployed to advance American interests? Will the strategy usher in a new Golden Age, and "make America safer, richer, freer, greater, and more powerful than ever before," as the President claims in the preface?   Chris has a grievance for the inability of the Navy to design and produce small surface combatants, Zack is pleased with Congress asserting itself in the new NDAA, and Melanie has shoutouts for three friends who are moving on to new adventures in their lives.   Show Links:   National Security Strategy of the United States of America, The White House, November 2025. Matt Jamison, "Why I Declined Brigade Command," LinkedIn, December 2, 2025. Bryan McGrath, "The End of This Road," Substack, December 1, 2025.  Sam LaGrone, "Navy Cancels Constellation-class Frigate Program, Considering Small New Surface Combatants," USNI News, November 25, 2025.  Evan Cooper, The Power of US Cultural Diplomacy, Stimson Center, December 2, 2025.  Sam LaGrone, "Navy Cancels Constellation-class Frigate Program, Considering Small New Surface Combatants," USNI News, November 25, 2025.  Evan Cooper, The Power of US Cultural Diplomacy, Stimson Center, December 2, 2025.   

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Oren Cass's recent article articulating a "Grand Strategy of Reciprocity." Cass argues that the United States should build a bloc of countries that agree to engage with each other on comparable terms while jointly excluding others that will not fulfill the same obligations. Is this possible or realistic? And how does it align with the Trump administration's approach? Meanwhile, Chris commends the Eurasia Group's Institute for Global Affairs, Melanie criticizes Chinese entities purchasing properties near critical US installations, and Zack laments a fundamental misreading of game theory by Scott Bessent.   Show Links:   Oren Cass, "A Grant Strategy of Reciprocity," Foreign Affairs, November/December 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/grand-strategy-reciprocity. Scott Bessent, "It's time to end the filibuster," Washington Post, November 23, 2025. Nate Jones, "State Department erases 15 pages of nuclear history — with no warning," Washington Post, November 13, 2025. Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Eloise Cassier, Ransom Miller, "Reckless Peacemaker?" Institute for Global Affairs, November 6, 2025 Chris Mason and Becky Morton, "UK Expected to Approve Plans for Chinese Mega Embassy," BBC, November 21, 2025. Philip Lenczycki, "US Nuclear Bomber Fleet Shares Fence With Trailer Park Linked To Chinese Intel-Tied Fraudster," Daily Caller, November 10, 2025.   Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/  

Chris, Melanie, and Zack, convene for a wide-ranging discussion of U.S. current and prospective military operations against the country of Venezuela, and the regime of Nicolas Maduro. Why is the United States sending fighter jets, an aircraft carrier, and other assets to the Caribbean? What does the military buildup say about which voices in the administration are being heard? And is there anything that Maduro can do, any deal he can make with Donald Trump, to avoid regime change, with or without a military conflict? Grievances for universities who cave to Chinese pressure and stop reporting on human rights abuses, to the Department of Defense's new plan for facilitating foreign arms sales, and to Congress for the pointless government shutdown. Attas to Norway for realizing that Chinese-made electric vehicles are vulnerable to hacking, to Paul Kelly for realizing the John Lennon's "Imagine" is a terrible song, to the Supreme Court and some members of Congress for appearing to resist Trump's executive overreach (finally!), and to the nation's veterans on the occasion of their annual official holiday. Show Links: Missy Ryan, Vivian Salama, Michael Scherer, and Nancy A. Youssef, "Why Venezuela?" The Atlantic, November 6, 2025 Matthew Kroenig, "Trump Should Oust Maduro," Foreign Policy, November 7, 2025 Justin Logan and Lawrence Montreuil, "Don't Repeat Libya: The Dangers of US Intervention in Venezuela," Cato at Liberty, October 31, 2025 Alexander B. Downes and Lindsey A. O'Rourke, "The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela," Foreign Affairs, October 31, 2025 Dan Grazier, "Hegseth Wants to Make the Pentagon a Global Arms Bazaar," Responsible Statecraft, November 6, 2025 Brett Samuels, "Trump: 'I Doubt' US Going to War with Venezuela, but Maduro's Days are Numbered," The Hill, November 3, 2025.  Augusta Saraiva, "Trump's Move on Venezuela Splinters Region over Possible Strike," Bloomberg, November 1, 2025  "Norway Transport Firm Step Up Controls after Tests Show Chinese-Made Buses Can Be Halted Remotely," AP, November 5, 2025." Nadeem Badshad, "Counter-Terror Police Investigate Claim UK University Halted Research After Chinese Pressure," The Guardian, November 3, 2025. 

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about Michael Beckley's new article, "The Stagnant Order and the End of Rising Powers." What consequences might the decline and greying of populations have for global security? Has the era of transformative discoveries ended? Has the United States become a "rogue superpower, with little sense of obligation beyond itself"? Have corruption, political dysfunction, and waning innovation made it impossible for states to pursue agendas of economic growth and national security?   Chris has a strong grievance for Congress which has failed to do its constitutional job and is again putting the country through a government shutdown, Zack praises President Trump for securing a peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand, and Melanie is frustrated by President Trump putting more tariffs on Canada because of an ad featuring President Reagan that he didn't like.    Links   Francis J. Gavin, The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American Grand Strategy in a New Era (International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2024). Brian Mann and Sarah McCammon, "People are having fewer kids. Their choice is transforming the world's economy," NPR, October 27, 2025. Julia Gledhill, "What You Need to Know about Pentagon and Military-Related Spending in H.R. 1," Stimson Center/Costs of War Project, October 23, 2025. Pooja Salhotra, "In Trump-Friendly Iowa, the President's Policies Have Hit Hard," New York Times, October 26, 2025. Lalee Ibssa and Ivan Periera, "Trump Raises Tariffs on Canada 10% After Reagan Ad Airs During World Series," ABC News, October 26, 2025. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Closes Billion-Dollar Deals with Australia, White House, October 20, 2025. Nicholas Eberstadt, "The Age of Depopulation: Surviving a World Gone Grey," Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025.   Greg Iacurci, "ACA Enhanced Subsidy Lapse Could Hit Early Retirees Hardest Amid Shutdown Fight," CNBC, October 17, 2025.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack review Adam Tooze's recent article on the failure of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – and Western-directed aid efforts generally. What should be the goals of foreign aid? Can development assistance, as it has recently been implemented, actually make a meaningful long-term difference in living standards? What might steep cuts in foreign aid mean for poor countries? In an era of great power competition, should we look at development assistance as a way to counter China's influence? Grievances for the Trump administration's policies toward China and its new deals with Qatar, and to the US Senate for failing to assert its authority over the war powers. Attas to President Trump for successfully brokering a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, and for negotiating a new deal with Finland to build icebreakers.   Links: Adam Tooze, "The End of Development," Foreign Policy, September 8, 2025, Evan Cooper and Alessandro Perri, "Scenarios for US Foreign Aid in 2035," Stimson Center, September 19, 2025 Max Bearak and Lazaro Gamio, "The U.S. foreign aid budget, visualized," Washington Post, October 18, 2016 Rand Paul, "The Constitution Does Not Allow the President To Unilaterally Blow Suspected Drug Smugglers to Smithereens," Reason, October 8, 2025 Kathryn Watson, "Hegseth announces Qatar will build air force facility at U.S. base in Idaho," CBS News, October 10, 2025 "Putting the Global Order Back Together," International Affairs Forum, Traverse City, MI, October 23, 2025 Valentina Finckenstein, How International Aid Can Do More Harm than Good: The Case of Lebanon, LSE Ideas, February 2021. William Easterly, The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good, Penguin Books, 2007. "Aid Cannot Make Poor Countries Rich," The Economist, March 6, 2025. Noah Robertson, Katie Tarrant, Ellen Nakashima, "Bipartisan Move to Restrict Trump's War Powers Fails in Senate," Washington Post, October 9, 2025. Steve Holland, Anne Kauranen, Jeff Mason, and Gram Slattery, "Trump and Finland's Stuff Approve Deal for Icebreaker Ships," Reuters, October 9, 2025.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon's in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump's support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions. Links: Jeffrey Friedman, "The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials," Texas National Security Review, Fall 2025. "Ask The Experts," Foreign Affairs. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press, 2017. Drew FitzGerald and Lara Seligman, "Pentagon Pushes to Double Missile Production for Potential China Conflict," Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2025. Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, "Is Trump Capitulating to China," AEIdeas, September 25, 2025. Zack Cooper, "Rethinking the Rebalance," IDSS Paper, September 5, 2025. Sam Rosenfeld and Matthew Yglesias, "The Incompetence Dodge," American Prospect, October 23, 2005. Tara Copp, Dan Lamothe, Noah Robertson and Alex Horton, "Trump to attend gathering of top generals, upending last-minute plans," Washington Post, September 28, 2025. Adam Goldstein, "Why our critics' whataboutery over Jimmy Kimmel is wrong," FIRE, September 22, 2025. Tom Karako, A Marie Kondo Moment for MTCR: Tidying Up the US Approach to Missile Proliferation, CSIS, September 23, 2025.  Elisabeth Buchwald, "Trump Vows to Enact 'Substantial' Tariffs on Imported Furniture," CNN, September 29, 2025.   

Chris, Zack, and Melanie take some time to talk about how the United States, Europe, and Russia are dealing with the Ukraine conflict. Would a Russian win in a war which is costing billions of dollars, killing hundreds of thousands of Russians, and reinforcing Moscow's junior partner status to China only be a pyrrhic victory? Does Russia hold a winning hand because it seems to be willing to take on greater risk than Europe and the United States? Was the passive American reaction to the Russian drone incursion into Poland a sign that the US is done providing security commitments to Europe? Have European governments reached a consensus on whether a sovereign Ukraine is worth a military fight with Russia? Chris is impressed with how Utah Governor Spencer Cox has handled the complex politics following the murder of Charlie Kirk, Zack has an atta for a colleague's Golden Dome cost calculator, and Melanie is disappointed that the West Point Association of Graduates has cancelled an event at which Tom Hanks was to be awarded the Sylvanus Thayer Award for his longtime dedication to promoting stories of American heroism and innovation and elevating the stories of American veterans. Show Links: Robert Kagan, "The Beginning of the End of NATO," The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Franz-Stefan Gady, "The Russia-Ukraine War: Europe's Delusions over Deterring Russia," September 10, 2025. Jeremy Shapiro, "Russia is Losing the War—Just Not to Ukraine," The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Alexandra E. Petri, "West Point Alumni Group Cancels Award Honoring Tom Hanks," New York Times, September 7, 2025. Mike Stone, "Trump to Reinterpret 1987 Missile Treaty to Sell Heavy Attack Drones Abroad," Reuters, September 6, 2025. Charlie Edwards and Nate S, "The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe's Critical Infrastructure," IISS, August 19, 2025.  "Heroes and villains: Russia braces for eventual return of its enormous army," Reuters, September 9, 2025. Joshua Rovner, Strategy and Grand Strategy, The Adelphi Series, International Institute for Strategic Studies, January 2025. McKay Coppins, "Trump Has a Warning for Spencer Cox," The Atlantic, September 13, 2025. Todd Harrison, "Build Your Own Golden Dome: A Framework for Understanding Costs, Choices, and Tradeoffs," American Enterprise Institute, September 12, 2025. US Policy Update on the Export of Unmanned Aerial Systems, State Department, September 15, 2025. 

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman's new article "The Weaponized World Economy." Is the United States, which has been accused of weaponizing the global economy now getting a taste of its own medicine? Should America try to rebuild its economic security state for a world in which adversaries and allies can also employ economic coercion against us? And what are the key risks or challenges that the U.S. government will face if it goes down this path? Grievances for using the National Guard to pick up trash; to President Trump for toying with the idea of running for a third term; and to the Trump administration for botching the relationship with India. Attas to America's workers on Labor Day – including the millions who came here from outside of the United States; to Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff for their performance in the last Cabinet meeting; and to a German firm, Luxcara's, decision to drop Chinese technology in a new windfarm. Show Links: Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, "The Weaponized World Economy," Foreign Affairs, September/October 2025. Tara Copp, "National Guard troops deployed in D.C. add sanitation, landscaping duties," The Washington Post, August 27, 2025. Paul Kiernan, "How a Historic Immigration Drop Is Changing the Job Market," Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2025. "New Visions for Grand Strategy"  Marco Rubio, "New Visa Policies Put America First, Not China," US State Department, May 28, 2025. Greg Ip, "The US Marches Toward State Capitalism with American Characteristics," Wall Street Journal, August, 11, 2025. Jonah Goldberg, "The Donald Always Gets His Slice," The Dispatch, August 27, 2025. Howard Lutnik on The Ingraham Angle, X post, August 25, 2025. Petra Sorge, "German Wind Farm to Drop China Turbine Order After Backlash," Bloomberg, August 25, 2025. Noah Barkin, LinkedIn post, August 27, 2025.   Jason Ma, "Rural America is Suffering an Economic Crisis as Crop Prices Plunge — 'US Soybean Farmers Cannot Survive a Prolonged Trade Dispute,'" MSN.com, August 30, 2025. Stimson event on September 17th, New Visions for Grand Strategy. Support Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/.