Why I'm Not Worried About a Bitcoin Crash: The Liquidation Map, the Fed's Trap, and Japan's 1996 Moment

ome strange things are happening in crypto. I break down the $320 million self-described white hat hack of Bitcoin's Liquid sidechain, Hunter Biden's new LAPTOP meme coin and why I think it is bad for the space, Matt Hogan's call for $1.3 million Bitcoin by 2035, and the Clarity Act vote on September 15. Plus the big week ahead, with inflation prints and the Fed decision as hike odds sit near a coin flip. My take stays the same: be careful chasing the altcoin pump.

Altcoins like Zcash are going up fassttt, but after being in this space since 2013, this pattern makes me cautious, not greedy. I break down why I'm not chasing, the crowded long setups on Zcash, Solana, and Hyperliquid, and the big week ahead: PPI Thursday, CPI Friday, then the Fed on September 16. A hold likely sends us higher short term, a hike could bring a sell off. Either way, it's noise if you know what you're holding.

Bitcoin ripped above $82,000 for the first time in months, reclaiming the closely watched 50 week moving average, and the whole market jumped around 5 percent. But I am not convinced the bear market is over, and in this episode I explain why.The big driver was Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Speaking at a Reuters interview, he said that if disinflation continues over the next two weeks, he would be inclined to support holding rates at the September 15 to 16 meeting, a notably more dovish tone than Chair Kevin Warsh struck at Jackson Hole. Waller was clear it is conditional: if August inflation comes in hot, he would consider a hike. That makes the August CPI report on September 11 the real swing factor, with the jobs report landing first.I walk through what Waller said on jobs, GDP, tariffs, and energy, why falling long term yields tend to push money into risk assets, and how the odds of a September hold jumped while hike odds for the rest of the year fell. I also cover JD Vance and Trump pushing for lower rates, the altcoins running hard right now, and why I am staying cautious on smaller coins.In this episode:Bitcoin reclaims the 50 week and tops $82KWhy I am still not convinced the bear market is overWhat Fed Governor Waller said and why it moved marketsWhy August CPI on September 11 is the key catalystFalling yields and why they fuel cryptoThe bear market signals that still remain, including realized price near $53KWhat I would buy on a pullback

Bitcoin is quiet right now, and that might actually be a good thing. In this episode I walk through the exchange liquidation map and why the setup looks far less primed for a violent dump than it did just a week ago, plus why the bottom of the bear market has historically landed within the next 30 to 60 days.I also get into the bind the Federal Reserve is stuck in, framed by James Lavish: whether they raise or cut rates this month, long term rates likely keep climbing either way. Lawrence Lepard argues the only real fix left is a big print. From there I cover why Bitcoin and gold have been such strong hedges against long dated Treasuries, Ray Dalio's call to sell bonds and hold gold plus a little Bitcoin, oil rising on the Middle East escalation, and Japan's 10 year yield hitting 3 percent for the first time since 1996, along with the yen carry trade risk that could tighten global liquidity.In this episode:Why the liquidation map has me less worried about a big dumpWhy the bottom could be 30 to 60 days awayThe Fed is trapped: rates rise whether they hike or cutWhy asset holders in Bitcoin, gold, and stocks win from hereWhy Ethereum and Solana carry more downside risk than BitcoinJapan's 10 year hits 3 percent and the yen carry tradeWhether I am still buying up here

Bitcoin is hovering around $78K and still sitting in greed, but a lot happened today. Trump came out swinging, saying interest rates are too high and a hike would be ridiculous, which puts him at odds with his own Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Meanwhile the odds of a rate hike this year have climbed to as high as 77 percent heading into the next FOMC meeting.I break down Tom Lee's case for why Q4 could be strong, from institutional allocation to the four year cycle bottoming in the next one to two months, plus the chart that suggests we could be 30 to 60 days from the bottom. I also cover Ray Dalio on why debt problems end in currency devaluation, Michael Saylor ending a 10 week pause with a fresh 4,603 Bitcoin purchase, and Hyperliquid's move to enter the US through Kraken's Bitnomial.In this episode:Why buying in greed rarely pays offTrump vs the Fed on rates and the 30 year yieldTom Lee's catalysts for a strong Q4The cycle chart pointing to a bottom in 30 to 60 daysRay Dalio on debt and currency devaluationSaylor buys 4,600 Bitcoin againHyperliquid could be coming to the US

This week can be pretty crazy for the markets. My plan.

Bitcoin just ripped from $62K to almost $80K in three days, and sentiment flipped from extreme fear to greed. So the question is do we buy now or wait for things to settle?In this breakdown, I walk through the data that changed how I think about this. If you missed Bitcoin's 10 best days, your annual return went negative in nine of the last 15 years. Miss 50 days across a decade, and a 200x asset can hand you a loss. That is why trying to time the top and bottom is so dangerous.I also cover Ray Dalio warning of a US debt crisis and recommending 15% in Bitcoin and gold, Standard Chartered calling for $500K by 2030, and why I just closed my own long even though I stay bullish long term.

Most people have left crypto — if you're still here, this one's for you.In this episode, Aaron Bennett shares the biggest mistake he made after getting into Bitcoin back in 2013: selling into fear. He breaks down why every four-year cycle comes with a fresh "this time is different" panic, where Bitcoin actually sits versus past bear markets, and why gold and silver being ~30-50% off their highs shows this isn't some isolated crypto bubble.Covered in this episode:The 2013–2017 selling mistakes — and the lesson that stuckWhy every cycle has a scary macro reason to sell (this time: Iran headlines)Where we are vs. prior bear markets and the ~53K realized priceThe AI rotation and when the four-year cycle could bottomQuantum computing FUD, the 2022 contagion, and why we came backSignal over hype — the stories actually moving markets, most days.

Ionic Digital Vote & Mashinsky Fights For $3 Billion FTX Claim

In this video, I'm sharing why bitcoin is selling off below $60K, perspectives from being in the market for a few cycles, and the realized price.