The Fed Hikes Rates but Crypto Shrugs, Plus a Bitcoin Reserve Bill Advances and the SEC Steps Up

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, its first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12 to 0 vote

The Clarity Act, the big crypto market structure bill, failed its Senate cloture vote, coming up short of the 60 votes needed, with every Democrat and four Republicans voting no.

AI leaders are wanting to slow down AI progress. fomc meeting. clarity act. wild week.

Bitcoin pulled back to around $77,000 after two high inflation prints, and the odds of a Fed rate hike next week jumped towards 80 percent.

The Hunter Biden LAPTOP meme coin collapsed right after launch

Bitcoin just flashed a golden cross, its first in over a year, where the 50 day average crosses back above the 200 day. Historically that is a bullish signal, though it often comes with a pullback first, and I explain why I would not be shocked to see a retest of the lows before new highs. I also cover spiking oil after the US destroyed five Iranian tankers, rate hike odds heading into the Fed, Robinhood's new stake in Crypto.com, and Strategy now holding 845,050 Bitcoin.

ome strange things are happening in crypto. I break down the $320 million self-described white hat hack of Bitcoin's Liquid sidechain, Hunter Biden's new LAPTOP meme coin and why I think it is bad for the space, Matt Hogan's call for $1.3 million Bitcoin by 2035, and the Clarity Act vote on September 15. Plus the big week ahead, with inflation prints and the Fed decision as hike odds sit near a coin flip. My take stays the same: be careful chasing the altcoin pump.

Altcoins like Zcash are going up fassttt, but after being in this space since 2013, this pattern makes me cautious, not greedy. I break down why I'm not chasing, the crowded long setups on Zcash, Solana, and Hyperliquid, and the big week ahead: PPI Thursday, CPI Friday, then the Fed on September 16. A hold likely sends us higher short term, a hike could bring a sell off. Either way, it's noise if you know what you're holding.

Bitcoin ripped above $82,000 for the first time in months, reclaiming the closely watched 50 week moving average, and the whole market jumped around 5 percent. But I am not convinced the bear market is over, and in this episode I explain why.The big driver was Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Speaking at a Reuters interview, he said that if disinflation continues over the next two weeks, he would be inclined to support holding rates at the September 15 to 16 meeting, a notably more dovish tone than Chair Kevin Warsh struck at Jackson Hole. Waller was clear it is conditional: if August inflation comes in hot, he would consider a hike. That makes the August CPI report on September 11 the real swing factor, with the jobs report landing first.I walk through what Waller said on jobs, GDP, tariffs, and energy, why falling long term yields tend to push money into risk assets, and how the odds of a September hold jumped while hike odds for the rest of the year fell. I also cover JD Vance and Trump pushing for lower rates, the altcoins running hard right now, and why I am staying cautious on smaller coins.In this episode:Bitcoin reclaims the 50 week and tops $82KWhy I am still not convinced the bear market is overWhat Fed Governor Waller said and why it moved marketsWhy August CPI on September 11 is the key catalystFalling yields and why they fuel cryptoThe bear market signals that still remain, including realized price near $53KWhat I would buy on a pullback

Bitcoin is quiet right now, and that might actually be a good thing. In this episode I walk through the exchange liquidation map and why the setup looks far less primed for a violent dump than it did just a week ago, plus why the bottom of the bear market has historically landed within the next 30 to 60 days.I also get into the bind the Federal Reserve is stuck in, framed by James Lavish: whether they raise or cut rates this month, long term rates likely keep climbing either way. Lawrence Lepard argues the only real fix left is a big print. From there I cover why Bitcoin and gold have been such strong hedges against long dated Treasuries, Ray Dalio's call to sell bonds and hold gold plus a little Bitcoin, oil rising on the Middle East escalation, and Japan's 10 year yield hitting 3 percent for the first time since 1996, along with the yen carry trade risk that could tighten global liquidity.In this episode:Why the liquidation map has me less worried about a big dumpWhy the bottom could be 30 to 60 days awayThe Fed is trapped: rates rise whether they hike or cutWhy asset holders in Bitcoin, gold, and stocks win from hereWhy Ethereum and Solana carry more downside risk than BitcoinJapan's 10 year hits 3 percent and the yen carry tradeWhether I am still buying up here