Off-Ramp or Escalator - The Iranian Regime's Final Act?: Dr. Seth Jones

Michael speaks with Dr. Seth Jones, president of CSIS's Defense and Security Department, to analyze a critical moment in the Iran conflict: are we headed for a diplomatic off-ramp or a rapid escalation toward regime change? Dr. Jones assesses the degradation of Iran's naval and drone capabilities and explains why the current campaign has successfully reset the regional balance of power. However, he also explores the "buying time" strategy of Iranian diplomacy and the increasing pressure from Gulf states to see the regime ended as it continues to strike commercial and energy targets. Finally, Dr. Jones examines the tactical shift in Israeli targeting and what it means for the long-term survival of the IRGC.

Michael speaks with Yaakov Katz, former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post and author of "While Israel Slept", about the profound shift in the Israeli perspective as the focus of the war moves from regional proxies to a direct conflict with Iran. Yaakov explains why a majority of Israelis now support this military campaign, viewing it as a "unique historical opportunity" to dismantle the source of regional instability. He also examines the influence of President Trump on Israel's strategic calculus and offers a candid assessment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's dramatic political comeback following the October 7th attacks.

In this special episode, Michael zeroes in on the potential for a collapse in global energy security amid the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. First, he speaks with Clay Seigle, a senior energy security fellow at CSIS, about the economic impact of the dangerous choke point at the Straits of Hormuz, where a paralyzed trade is threatening to send global oil prices soaring. Clay also analyzes the strategic implications of U.S. strikes on military infrastructure at Iran's key oil depot on Kharg Island. Then, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), breaks down the high-stakes naval mechanics of reopening the Straits and why the U.S. must reset Iran's nuclear and ballistic capabilities by "five or seven years" to ensure long-term regional stability.

Michael speaks with Michael Doran, Director of the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East and a former senior director in the National Security Council, about the outlook for U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. Mr. Doran explains the internal power dynamics within the Iranian regime and why they matter to potential negotiations to de-escalate or end the conflict. He also explores the likely diverging interests of Israeli and American leaders, why understanding the influence of Iranian ethnic groups is vital to charting possible outcomes, and why he believes a citizen-led uprising to topple the government is unlikely.

Michael discusses the rapidly developing conflict in the Middle East with General Joseph Votel, former commander of CENTCOM and U.S. Special Operations Command. General Votel analyzes the strategic implications of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz and the challenges of a potential special operations raid to recover highly enriched uranium in the country. He also examines the shifting power dynamics within the Iranian regime, including how the new Supreme Leader's lack of religious credentials may lead to increased influence from the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Michael Allen discusses Iran's new Supreme Leader with Jeffrey Feltman, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and former UN Under-Secretary-General. Feltman examines the sudden rise of Mojtaba Khamenei following the death of his father, Ali Khamenei, and discusses the regime's internal cohesion despite widespread domestic opposition. He also explains Israeli military targeting strategies, the risk of a "race for the bomb," and the potential for significant regional escalation.

In an exclusive conversation, Michael talks to former National Security Council Director for Iran Richard Nephew about the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the regime's response. Richard, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, explores how a collapse of the Islamic Republic could unfold and the last-ditch retaliation measures the regime could take against its Middle East neighbors and U.S. forces in the region. He also evaluates leadership succession possibilities and growing concerns regarding nuclear proliferation.

Michael joins Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies to discuss the U.S.-Israel combined attacks on Iran. RADM Montgomery, an expert in U.S. national security, explores the potential for Iranian regime change, regional security impacts, and Iran's strategic vulnerabilities. He also breaks down the massive air power currently assembled in the region and the likelihood of an expanded Iranian retaliation campaign.

Michael speaks with Dr. Ryan Berg, Director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about the violent fallout from the Mexican army's deadly operation against drug kingpin "El Mencho." Ryan analyzes what's at stake for the U.S. as narco-barricades and violence force Americans to shelter in place, and explains how the U.S.-Mexico relationship is shifting as the White House turns up the heat on cartels. They also discuss the lingering fragility of the Cuban regime, and a high-stakes roadmap for Venezuela's future.  

Michael speaks with Josh Meservey, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and one of the nation's leading experts on African geopolitics and counterterrorism. Josh discusses the high-stakes Sudanese Civil War, its ripple effects across the Red Sea into the Middle East, and why the US has a stake in the region's stability, trade, and security. Josh also explains the Great Power competition unfolding in Africa as China works to escalate its influence.