The Hormuz Hotline: Eddie Fishman

Michael is joined by Craig Singleton, Senior Director of the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, to preview the long-delayed summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. With the war in Iran looming over the meeting, Craig discusses whether Beijing will leverage its influence over Tehran as a bargaining chip or continue to provide the regime with a critical economic lifeline. He also focuses on the unbalanced dependencies that define the U.S.-China relationship—from the weaponization of trade to the national security risks posed by Chinese dominance in the battery and electric vehicle markets. Craig also explains what China's plans could be for Taiwan, and why the U.S. can't build its next industrial economy on supply chains controlled by Beijing. 

Michael is joined by Eddie Fishman, Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former State Department sanctions expert, to discuss the Trump administration's shift toward a "last-ditch" diplomatic and geoeconomic effort to resolve the Iran conflict. Eddie evaluates the effectiveness of the US Navy's new "guiding" mission in the Strait of Hormuz and whether a peaceful reopening of the waterway is actually scalable. Eddie also discusses the financial lifelines to Iran from continued trade through the Strait and the alternative oil exports the country is attempting, along with the ongoing impact on Europe and Asia.  

Michael welcomes Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security, to evaluate the sustainability of the US economic blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the realistic prospects for a nuclear breakthrough with Iran. Richard provides a reality check on the administration's declarations of victory, explaining why a meaningful nuclear agreement remains weeks, if not months, away. He explores the likelihood of a blockade-for-blockade swap and the potential for a narrow, three-to-four page framework to replace the sprawling agreements of the past. Finally, Richard assesses how Beijing could be evaluating US positioning and maritime pressure in the region.

Michael is joined by Gen. (Ret.) Joseph Votel, former CENTCOM Commander, to examine the high-pressure maneuvering between Washington and Tehran amid the recently extended Mideast ceasefire. Gen. Votel warns of a looming "escalation trap" as the US and Iran navigate a delicate truce. He also provides a candid assessment of a potential second round of negotiations in Islamabad and explains why the US must now work harder than ever on the diplomatic and strategic communications fronts to avoid a return to full-scale hostilities.

Former NSC Director for Iran Richard Nephew returns to NatSec Matters to discuss the tactical and economic shifts in the Mideast conflict. Richard, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, gives Michael a candid assessment of the military campaign so far, highlighting the sophistication of allied coordination while questioning whether U.S. tactics are translating into long-term strategic success. Richard also discusses the outlook for the current ceasefire and evaluates what concessions Washington might allow Tehran in order to cut a deal.

Michael is joined by Roger Zakheim, Washington Director of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, and Rich Goldberg, Senior Advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, to discuss the high-stakes blockade of Iranian ports by the US Navy. Following a busy weekend in Islamabad that failed to yield a long-term resolution to the Mideast conflict, the trio gathered Monday to analyze the shift from kinetic strikes to a total maritime strangulation of the Iranian economy and what it means for the regime's survival. Roger and Rich also discuss the realistic prospects for a future diplomatic agreement and the outlook for impacts on the global energy trade.

Michael sits down with Admiral (Ret.) Chris Grady, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to break down the tactical evolution of the Iran conflict following President Trump's recent address to the nation. Admiral Grady provides an insider's perspective on the new deadline the President has announced for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face devastating new strikes. He also explains the strategic calculus behind targeting Iran's energy infrastructure and deeply buried "missile cities." The conversation, recorded on April 3, 2026, explores the sophisticated "ecosystem" of Iranian defiance—from the mixing of missile propellant to the naval mechanics required to "cut the tail off the scorpion" and neutralize threats across the region's islands. Finally, Admiral Grady reflects on his time at the Bush National Security Council to explain how the U.S. is utilizing specialized assets like bunker busters to ensure the Iranian regime cannot threaten global security for a generation.

In this special episode, Michael discusses President Trump's primetime address to the nation on the Iran war with Matt Kroenig, Vice President for Geostrategy at the Atlantic Council. Matt offers his reaction to the President's forward-looking timeline and the administration's strategic claim that the conflict's final objectives are now within sight. He also assesses the likelihood of a ground invasion and how Iran might utilize "denial" attacks to fight back. Finally, Matt weighs in on shifting global alliances, including the impact of Elon Musk's decision to sever Russia's access to Starlink.

Michael speaks with Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, following his recent trip to Ukraine. Admiral Montgomery explores the warfare strategies currently defining the conflict, as well as the evolving "gray zone" tactics Russia is employing against the Baltics. He also identifies critical weak spots in the Russian military machine, from logistical vulnerabilities to strategic anxieties, and provides a sobering assessment of the "ground situation" in Ukraine. Finally, Admiral Montgomery explains why the war could realistically continue for another three years and what the US must do to maintain the defense of its allies in the face of persistent Russian aggression.  

Michael speaks with Dr. Seth Jones, president of CSIS's Defense and Security Department, to analyze a critical moment in the Iran conflict: are we headed for a diplomatic off-ramp or a rapid escalation toward regime change? Dr. Jones assesses the degradation of Iran's naval and drone capabilities and explains why the current campaign has successfully reset the regional balance of power. However, he also explores the "buying time" strategy of Iranian diplomacy and the increasing pressure from Gulf states to see the regime ended as it continues to strike commercial and energy targets. Finally, Dr. Jones examines the tactical shift in Israeli targeting and what it means for the long-term survival of the IRGC.