NDR's Clissold: If '26 gains get too big, we just might be in a bubble

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research is expecting a modest year of gains for the stock market in 2026, and he says that would be better for investors because another year of double-digit gains — the fourth straight year at that level — has only happened one other time, as the Internet bubble of the late 1990s was inflating. Clissold said he expects 2026 to be a 6-7 year, to borrow from the popular meme with the kids, noting that it will be a decent return delivered after a good start to the year, a middle period of struggles and a strong finish. Michele Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge.com, says she expects the stock market — as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 — to have a flat year, with 7,000, a level barely higher than the market is at now, being roughly her high for the year. Within that flat year ahead, Schneider is expecting a rough go in terms of volatility; she also said that other indexes and sectors — most notably the small-cap Russell 2000, but also transportation, retail and biotechnology — represent opportunities to do better than the broad market in the year ahead. Plus, Kimberly Flynn, president at XA Investments, discusses the just-launched XAI Interval Fund Credit Index, which tracks the performance of non-listed closed-end interval funds and tender offer funds in the alternative-credit space, and how having the benchmark should help investors as they look at adding private credit and other alternatives to their portfolios. 

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. discusses her outlook for 2026. where she expects to see a broadening out — with more than just the mega-cap names driving stocks higher — but says investors will "have to do homework" to make the right moves amid heightened volatility and instability. She discusses how 2025 was not as far away from expectations as many people think, why she doesn't see a recession ahead but worries that rate cuts and threats to Federal Reserve independence could change that, and discusses "the three C's of the artificial intelligence cycle," and how the economy has moved from creating AI to catalyzing it and now to cultivating how it can impact businesses and the economy. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at a month-old actively managed liquid alternatives fund as his "ETF of the Week." And in the Market Call, David Snowball, founder of MutualFundObserver.com looks at funds and ETFs and warns about many newfangled products like the one Rosenbluth recommended, advocating for investors to keep things more simple, arguing that "The best thing we can do is make a good plan, find reasonable managers, and walk away."

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says he expects the stock market can produce another year of modest gains, without a recession, but he notes that his concerns are the potential for Federal Reserve policy mistakes and whether consumer spending can remain strong. He says the top two quintiles of consumers — the upper portion of a K-shaped recovery — are flush right now, and they make up about half of the economy's total spending and should be able to provide a tailwind that helps the market ride through any slowdown period. George Schultze, founder of Schultze Asset Management — the author of "The Art of Vulture Investing" — discusses buying (or short-selling) distressed securities in current market conditions. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener who felt her financial adviser was pushing her to make decisions that she thought were, at best, sub-optimal, and at worst a breach of financial responsibility. Chuck — who has written two books on choosing and working with financial advisers — thinks the problem is communications and expectations, which should make it straightforward to fix.

Jared Lou, portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at William Blair, says that the outlook for Venezuela and its place in the investment world has "dramatically changed" with the removal of president Nicholas Maduro. Lou noted that Venezuelan debt should be able to be restructured now, creating "a much better future than they had just a few days ago." Lou says emerging markets are well positioned for a big year in 2026, with continued dollar weakness also contributing to tailwinds.   WalletHub.com released its list of the "Best Credit Cards for 2026" today, and Chip Lupo, an analyst for the site, discusses not only some of the best deals but why consumers may want to be shopping for new credit cards now, even if they don't need one, noting that many credit deals have changed and improved. He says card users who fail to keep up with their perks and benefits will lose out and waste some of their credit dollars. Cecilia Amo, founder of Amo Law Legacy Planning discusses how consumers who want to avoid estate planning may doom their families to problems with probate, lost assets and much more. At a time of year when many people are trying to improve their financial lives, she talks about how estate planning does not have to be difficult, and the peace of mind it provides.

Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, says three consecutive years of stock market gains aren't going to come to a dead stop, but he does think the market's pace will slow down in 2026, where he has a target for the Standard & Poor's 500 of 7,150. Johnson expects a strong first quarter, but suggests investors might want to start building up cash for a pullback that could occur in the second or third quarter, noting that this market is "acting more like a light switch than a dimmer," meaning it will have on-off volatility rather than more gentle moves. David Goerz, chief executive and chief investment officer at Strategic Frontier Management, sees the market reaching a similar peak — he picked 7,200 on the S&P as his target — and also forecast a correction or downturn in the spring or early summer, but he says that the fundamentals behind his process suggest that small-caps and international stocks will be the areas that ultimately carry the market higher. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses how Venezuela — in the news due to the arrest of its president — should not be overlooked for its economic impact, despite being a frontier market, discusses how energy markets will sort out the issues there and talks about how capitalism continues to show its dominance over socialism.

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, returns to the show to discuss his 10 forecasts for the year ahead, when he is expecting "a good, but not a great year" as the market navigates "a high-risk bull market." Doll, a Wall Street veteran who has been making annual forecasts and predictions for decades, says that every year has plenty of uncertainty, but he says it feels like there is more now. He's expecting positive economic growth, sticky inflation and earnings that are lower than analysts expect, which will put a cap on the market's ability to generate gains. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — reviews the forecasts he made a year ago for 2025, grading his wins and losses on everything from inflation levels and Treasury yields to discount levels and the performance of five funds he identified as potential buys. Plus, Chuck talks about how investors are caught in a cyclone of emotions — suffering from higher inflation while benefiting from a stock market that has been defying gravity — and how a straightforward to-do list for the new year can provide more financial stability and clarity for 2026 and beyond.

Phil Rosen, co-founder of Opening Bell Daily, discusses his recent piece on "The 10 stocks Wall Street is most bullish on for 2026" — as well as the ones analysts think will underperform the most. These aren't his picks — in fact, Rosen is clear that they're not in his portfolio -- but instead they represent where analyst estimates are most disconnected from the current stock price; while that condition could mean the stocks are poised for take-off, it also means they could be particularly impacted by an earnings miss or any problem that shakes up analysts. Justin deTray, managing director at Wealthspire Advisors, discusses how the biggest determinant of returns is investor behavior — managing loss aversion, recency bias, anchoring and other personality traps — rather than asset allocation, and what that means for how investors should re-position their holdings entering the new year. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits three of his "ETF of the Week" picks from 2025 to note which ones worked particularly well in terms of both performance but also in terms of attracting assets in a crowded ETF landscape. (Warning, one of these picks is a fund that can be labeled as "boring" due to its assets and investment style, but where returns are enviable compared to peers.) Plus, Chuck talks about five ways he hopes to improve his life — the behaviors he wants to change or things he wants to get done — that will help him in 2026 but also, he believes, for all the rest of his years.

Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research, says that investors may be expecting too much from the domestic stock market, which makes it more likely to disappoint them even if it delivers modest gains. He's more excited about the prospects of international stocks and the commodities market, where he says the values — relative to the domestic market — remain attractive and there is more room to run.   With year-end upon us, Chuck talks about some personal finance realizations he has made this year that have him adjusting his thinking for the future, to better balance money and happiness. He's discussing research which shows that how someone receives their income may be a bigger determinant in their happiness than how much money they have, and how financial security is not just about the number at the bottom of a net worth statement. Plus, Stephen Akin, founder of Akin Investments brings his stock-picking mix of technical momentum indicators and fundamental analysis back to the Market Call.

Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that while artificial intelligence dominated the media landscape for moving the market in 2025, he says that monetary policy was a bigger story for investors, moving gold, silver, precious metals to much bigger gains.  "Commodities told the story of 2025," Marolia said in "The Week That Is," and while he expects AI to continue to be a big story, he said investors should be paying more attention to gold and precious metals. Marolia also talks about the year ahead, one where he expects increased merger and acquisition activity, improvement for value stocks and small companies, a rebound in cryptocurrency and more. Chuck talks about goals versus resolutions for the year ahead, advocating for having a personal system that helps provide focus on personal growth and progress so that you can make the most of the year ahead. Plus, the show revisits a recent conversation with Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research,who said that the bull market after celebrating its third birthday is in a position to keep running and producing positive returns for longer. He's expecting a modest up year in 2026.

John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, relies on his massive stores of data to look ahead for 2026, and he foresees no recession, lower inflation and modest GDP growth for 2026, with less volatility due to the interest-rate picture but more market tension due to the global macro picture. Scott also discusses what he sees happening in the closed-end fund industry, and he selects five funds — including one that has been in the news recently for problems that raised its discount — that he's expecting big things from in the year ahead. Long-time business journalist Allan Sloan — a seven-time winner of the Loeb Award, business journalism's highest honor — returns to the show to discuss his recent piece for Barron's  in which he discussed his admiration for the way Michael and Susan Dell recently committed $6.25 billion of their own money to give 25 million kids $250 each to invest in mutual funds. But he doesn't like the mechanics of the new Trump accounts that are the vehicle for those young savers and he says their impact on changing lives will be much more limited than the hype is making it out to be. Plus, Chuck talks about avoiding mistakes that result in financial punishments if not completed by year's end: failing to take required minimum distributions and failing to spend down dollars set aside in Flexible Spending Accounts. He cites Vanguard data showing that the RMD problem is much bigger than many people expect, and he suggests ways that heatlh-care savers can legally spend down their accounts while there is still time.