Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Despite headlines that have dominated the news stating concerns about the stock market and its ability to keep thriving under a new political administration, Mick Heyman, founder of Heyman Investment Counseling, doesn't see the warning signs of a terrible market. "Close your eyes, it's fear of heights, and just let the long-term trend continue on," Heyman said. He is not the only one who sees little trouble evident on the horizon, as Vuk Vuković, chief investment officer at Oraclum Capital, sees the economy being able to avoid a recession throughout 2025. Ravi Chintapalli from the Global Fixed Income team at Nuveen, says in The NAVigator that structural changes have made the junk bond market stronger, while reducing default risk; as a result, yields of 7 percent should be normal and comfortable in 2025. Plus Mac Sykes, portfolio manager at Gabelli talks financial stocks in the Market Call. 

Ben Harburg, founder of CoreValues Alpha — manager of the firm's Greater China Growth ETF — says that consumers in China have over $21 trillion in household savings sitting on the shelf and that as that money starts to be spent, it will drive the Chinese market to a long recovery. That should be happening at a time when Chinese stocks "are near rock bottom" but U.S. equities have been running to record highs, making China a good diversifier for American investors looking for protection against a setback here.  Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a free cash-flow ETF that opened in 2023 and that has risen to the top of its large-cap value peer group this year as his ETF of the Week. In the Market Call, Noland chief executive officer at Left Brain Wealth Management, returns to the show to discuss his version of growth investing; one area he particularly likes now is the big cruise companies.

Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co. — one of the longest-tenured and most decorated bond fund managers in history — says that the Federal Reserve has done its job and managed to avoid most of the trouble that observers feared was coming. Moreover, it has positioned the economy and the bond market to keep humming along. Yet Fuss also singles out several factors, including climate change and geo-politics, that are not usually factors in bond investing that are having a big impact on bond investing now. WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo discusses the site's research on the best and most-popular gift cards for the holiday season, and Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds, talks in the Market Call about how he practices deep-value investing at a time when the market is at record-high levels.

Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates, says investors "have a lot to look forward to," starting with a strong ending to the year and a big January effect, but he notes that conditions are right to keep the economy chugging along and pushing through the occasional stumble and correction. That said, he notes in The Big Interview that he is worried about the potential for trouble in the private credit market — where investors have been chasing super high yields for several years — to potentially create a full-blown market crash, akin to what the market experienced in 2008. Navellier also talks about his stock-picking methodology and his grading system in The Market Call. In the Talking Technicals segment, Xander Gray, founder and chief executive officer at XG Capital Strategies says that there's a recession and significant market drop coming, likely to start before the end of the first quarter of the new year. The recession is the fallout of the inverted yield curve; while many experts have said the economy will avoid the downturn that typically comes with that condition, Gray says there are plenty of reasons why investors should remain defensive now.

Todd Kellenberger, portfolio manager for public REITs at Principal Asset Management, expects that the Federal Reserve will make two to three interest rate cuts in 2025, but that the way rates move will be the real determinant in how the year plays out for real estate investors. Kellenberger says that the central bank's actions will be determined by inflation and jobs data, but he notes that if rates stay benign it will still be a good market for real estate, with the potential for much more if rates move more and the economy has a soft landing where real estate fundamentals improve. He gives his outlook for a variety of REIT types in a wide-ranging Big Interview. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs puts MicroStrategy Inc. in the Danger Zone, noting that the company is essentially a costly, leveraged play on bitcoin with more risk than an investor would face just owning cryptocurrency directly. And Michael Lowenberg, portfolio manager for the Modern Capital Tactical Income fund, talks in the Money Life Market Call about what he looks for in closed-end funds.

Brandon Thurber, chief market strategist at Regions Asset Management, says the market is looking strong for the next 12 to 18 months, provided it can avoid a big earnings shortfall. With high earnings expectations, he sees earnings pressure overhanging a market that is overbought but which still has pockets that represent good values. Thurber sees the market broadening out, with mid-caps being part of the rally but small companies likely to keep struggling, delivering moderate growth despite increased levels of volatility than investors have seen this year. Likewise, Buck Klintworth of Chase Investment Counsel — co-manager of the Chase Growth Fund — says that all of the market's underlying fundamentals are positive right now, and he suggests to stick with a friendly trend, even though they should look for "any cracks that begin to develop" that could be signs that the economy is turning. Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh Asset Management — which runs the Smart Trust Unit Investment Trusts — expects that rate cuts in the next two years will drive investors to turn for income alternatives "since they can't find the 5 percent in the short-term CDs any more." That will drive investors toward business development companies and leveraged municipal closed-end funds, and he discusses the benefits of playing those areas of the market using unit investment trusts.

Lauren Sanfilippo, senior investment strategist for Bank of America Merrill and Private Bank, says that the market has reached highs on the backs of a few stocks, but that it is now rotating away from those popular trades. That will reward investors who stay balanced and diversified as the market broadens out next year, moving away from the Magnificent Seven stocks and a few names driving results to rewarding more companies with solid balance sheets in sectors from defense to technology, industrials and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a short-duration, actively managed fixed-income fund his ETF of the Week. WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo, discusses the site's research into how average rates on department-store credit cards have popped to roughly 33 percent, but also how consumers looking to deferred interest deals wind up paying more because they don't understand how the programs work. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about paper stock certificates.

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, sees "rational exuberance" on today's market, noting that the stock market is a little bit expensive but not dramatically above long-term normal forward earnings numbers, and he notes that expectations are reasonable, a little  high but reasonable. Further, he suggests that all-time low levels of leverage and little debt on the books of the Standard & Poor's 500 is "a significant risk offset" to the current worries that make investors nervous. Author Michael Sincere — who writes the Long-Term Trader column at MarketWatch — discusses his new book, “Help Your Child Build Wealth: A Parents' Guide to Teaching Children to be Successful Investors,” and then sticks around to discuss technical analysis and how he sees the market moving on from the election and through the change of administrations into 2025.

Josef Schuster, president of IPOX Schuster, says that the market for initial public offerings isn't just hot right now — it has outperformed the stock market this year, despite the market having gone up to record-high levels — but it is safer than it has been in years, with fewer issues going public and with much of the risk of default having been shifted to the pre-IPO market. And while artificial-intelligence plays have gotten a lot of the headlines and attention, Schuster says that industrials and other sectors have seen more stable and generally more profitable IPO activity. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Wholesale Beer Association says that the November Beer Purchasers Index shows a highly unusual but completely neutral outlook for distributor sentiment, meaning the industry can't tell if times are bullish or bearish with year-end in sight. Plus college financial aid advisor Jack Wang, host of the new "Smart College Buyer" podcast, helps Chuck answer a listener's question about college loans coming due, and jeopardinging an unprepared parent's finances.

Bill Smead, manager of the Smead Value Fund, (SMVLX), says that the market has "all the pre-conditions for the [Standard and Poor's 500 to do very poorly," noting that current conditions are the "antithesis of 1980," when everyone got excited about Ronald Reagan took office at a time when stocks were cheap and inflation and interest rates are high. This time, he says, people are getting excited "at the end of a huge run .... a financial euphoria episode." He says in the Market Call that these conditions will lead to strong market performance over the next two decades, but to much tougher sledding over the next few years. One area that investors might turn to for relief would be gold, which has been on a big run in 2024 to get to record-high levels, and Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says he thinks that precious metals rally and gains are sustainable for at least the next 18 months — even if it goes through a short-term correction caused by profit-taking — because the conditions that have created the rally are likely to remain in place. Plus, Allison Hadley discusses a study fone for Luke Zion Jewelry which showed that Americans spend nearly $1,500 a year on "fashion."