US Market Open: US-Iran mediation efforts to continue, though US sources suggest the chance of a deal is limited; USD gains

US Envoy Witkoff said mediators will continue their work, and he hopes talks will be constructive and promising.However, US sources told Al Hadath that the chance of a deal is limited and major disputes and obstacles remain.US equity futures give back earlier gains as focus turns to the Trump-Xi meeting.DXY bids higher despite lower energy prices; EUR little moved following broadly stronger PMI metrics.Fixed income benchmarks trade rangebound, as energy lacks a clear direction (Brent +0.3%).Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P PMIs Flash (Sep), SARB Policy Announcement. UN Meetings include Trump-Sharif meeting, Senior Iranian leaders-GCC meeting, Iranian President Pezeshkian address. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone & Lane, Fed's Barr. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he thinks a settlement will be reached with Iran, and noted that some US-Iran communication has taken place even today and that the relationship with Iran is developing.US President Trump said envoys Witkoff and Kushner met with Iran mediators and that there were lots of good thoughts. Trump later commented that he thinks Iran will do something good.Trump also warned that they may have to blow up Pickaxe Mountain and that they will attack if they see activity. He reiterated that he thinks the Iran war could end after the Midterms, maybe before.Crude futures were subdued overnight after declining yesterday amid hopes for diplomacy following US-Iran talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed following the similar handover from the US; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include Global S&P PMIs Flash (Sep) and the SARB Policy Announcement. UN Meetings include the Trump-Sharif meeting, Senior Iranian leaders-GCC meeting, and Iranian President’s address. Speakers include ECB's Vujcic, Cipollone & Lane, Fed's Barr. Supply from Germany and the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude benchmarks have reversed earlier gains after Kyodo reported, citing an Iranian official, that Iran has suggested to the US administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and stops military operations related to Hormuz.Alongside the Kyodo report were constructive comments by the IRGC, stating that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate.Brent has returned below USD 94/bbl on the above headlines.A constructive risk tone followed, with equity futures and fixed income rising while the USD weakened.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, NBH Policy Announcement. UN Meetings: UN General Debate including Trump, Macron, Burnham; Trump-Zelensky meeting; Trump-Burnham meeting; Trump-Gulf Leaders meeting. Comments from ECB's Lagarde & Nagel, Fed's Williams, Jefferson & Barkin. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he had meetings regarding Iran and that Iran is not doing well; the Pakistani Interior Minister held consultations in Iran on efforts to advance the peace process.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he will present US President Trump with a US-China AI pact, while Trump is to decide on a US-China AI deal this week.APAC stocks mostly gained following the advances on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq outperformed.DXY was little changed but held on to the prior day's gains; 10yr UST futures took a breather following recent gains.European equity futures indicate a slightly positive cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Italian 2025 Deficit Update, NBH Policy Announcement. UN Meetings: UN General Debate including Trump, Macron, Burnham; Trump-Zelensky meeting; Trump-Burnham meeting; Trump-Gulf Leaders meeting. Comments from ECB's Lagarde & Nagel, Fed's Williams, Jefferson & Barkin. Supply from UK, Germany and the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump reportedly said on Sunday that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran as he left the Camp David retreat a day early to return to the White House.Pakistani Interior Minister travelled to Iran to discuss bilateral relations and cooperation, but it will be unrelated to Iran-US matters.German Chancellor Merz vowed to stay on despite a ‘disaster’ in regional elections, with partial results showing his CDU at just under the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.US equity futures gain as "successful" US-China talks boost optimism.DXY muted despite softer energy prices; EUR unreactive following German politics.Fixed income benchmarks are firmer given the downside in the crude complex (Brent Dec'26 -1.7%).Looking ahead, highlights include comments from ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Fed's Goolsbee and BoC's Macklem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump reportedly said on Sunday that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran as he left the Camp David retreat a day early to return to the White House.Crude futures initially advanced at the open following reports over the weekend that Houthis targeted a Saudi oil facility in Yanbu and with air raid alerts issued in Riyadh.Crude prices then retreated throughout the session despite the lack of fresh news behind the reversal, although Trump also signalled openness to meeting Iran's President.German Chancellor Merz vowed to stay on despite a ‘disaster’ in regional elections, with partial results showing his CDU at just under the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with cautious gains; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include comments from ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Fed's Goolsbee and BoC's Macklem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 1.25%, as expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote.In the press conference, BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ believes the phase of policy has changed but clarified that the objective is now to stabilise underlying inflation at around 2%.US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in tech as gains extend following Nvidia's Huang comments of doubling chip sales in 2027.DXY is slightly firmer; JPY the clear laggard as 2 dissenters give the BoJ a dovish tilt.Fixed income benchmarks are lower due to multiple factors which include elevated energy prices and hawkish ECB speak.Crude prices pare earlier downside despite a clear driver.Looking ahead, highlights include Quad witching, US Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Aug). Speakers include Fed's Bowman and Schmid. Credit Rating upgrades from Morningstar DBRS on France, Scope Ratings on France, and Moody's on Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump told Axios he is at a "critical juncture" regarding the war in Iran, weighing whether to launch massive new attacks or pursue a different path to end the conflict.BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 1.25%, as expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote; USD/JPY outperformed.Crude futures were lacklustre after declining yesterday alongside de-escalatory reports.APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, where markets reversed the post-FOMC moves amid a Fed credibility boost and lower oil prices.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include Quad witching, German PPI (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Aug), US Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Aug). Speakers include BoJ Governor Ueda, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bowman and Schmid. Credit Rating upgrades from Morningstar DBRS on France, Scope Ratings on France, and Moody's on Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump threatened to impose heavy tariffs on Europe if it considers Europe's decision to grant Canada observer status a hostile act.US President Trump said they are working very hard on Russia and Ukraine, while he added that the Ukraine war is the toughest war to end and is the one driving up diesel prices. On Iran, Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and hopefully we're more at the end of the Iran war.US equity futures climb and have pared entirely the downside seen post-Fed.DXY gives back some of Wednesday's gains; NZD strengthens following a stronger growth report.US 10-year yields fall back below 5%; Gilts on watch with BoE ahead.Energy benchmarks fall amid a lack of geopolitical escalation and constructive Trump comments.Looking ahead highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/12), Housing Starts (Aug), Building Permits Prelim. (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug). BoE Policy Announcement, CNB Policy Announcement. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Fed hiked rates by 25bps as expected in a unanimous decision, while the median projection saw another hike by year-end before rates remain on hold throughout 2027.The statement reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability, a message echoed by Chair Warsh in the press conference.US stocks were pressured and the major indices largely finished lower; APAC stocks traded mixed, DXY and yields held onto post-FOMC gains.US President Trump said the US may impose heavy tariffs on Europe if it considers Europe's decision to grant Canada observer status a hostile act.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Wednesday.Looking ahead highlights include EU Inflation Final (Aug), US Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/12), Housing Starts (Aug), Building Permits Prelim. (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug). BoE Policy Announcement, CNB Policy Announcement. Comments from ECB's Lane. Supply from Spain, France & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk