US Market Open: BoJ lifts rates by 25bps, but Ueda strikes a dovish tone, leading to JPY pressure; US equity futures are firmer

US President Trump reportedly said on Sunday that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran as he left the Camp David retreat a day early to return to the White House.Pakistani Interior Minister travelled to Iran to discuss bilateral relations and cooperation, but it will be unrelated to Iran-US matters.German Chancellor Merz vowed to stay on despite a ‘disaster’ in regional elections, with partial results showing his CDU at just under the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.US equity futures gain as "successful" US-China talks boost optimism.DXY muted despite softer energy prices; EUR unreactive following German politics.Fixed income benchmarks are firmer given the downside in the crude complex (Brent Dec'26 -1.7%).Looking ahead, highlights include comments from ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Fed's Goolsbee and BoC's Macklem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump reportedly said on Sunday that he is thinking of "blowing up" all of Iran as he left the Camp David retreat a day early to return to the White House.Crude futures initially advanced at the open following reports over the weekend that Houthis targeted a Saudi oil facility in Yanbu and with air raid alerts issued in Riyadh.Crude prices then retreated throughout the session despite the lack of fresh news behind the reversal, although Trump also signalled openness to meeting Iran's President.German Chancellor Merz vowed to stay on despite a ‘disaster’ in regional elections, with partial results showing his CDU at just under the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, but with cautious gains; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include comments from ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Fed's Goolsbee and BoC's Macklem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 1.25%, as expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote.In the press conference, BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ believes the phase of policy has changed but clarified that the objective is now to stabilise underlying inflation at around 2%.US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in tech as gains extend following Nvidia's Huang comments of doubling chip sales in 2027.DXY is slightly firmer; JPY the clear laggard as 2 dissenters give the BoJ a dovish tilt.Fixed income benchmarks are lower due to multiple factors which include elevated energy prices and hawkish ECB speak.Crude prices pare earlier downside despite a clear driver.Looking ahead, highlights include Quad witching, US Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Aug). Speakers include Fed's Bowman and Schmid. Credit Rating upgrades from Morningstar DBRS on France, Scope Ratings on France, and Moody's on Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump told Axios he is at a "critical juncture" regarding the war in Iran, weighing whether to launch massive new attacks or pursue a different path to end the conflict.BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 1.25%, as expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote; USD/JPY outperformed.Crude futures were lacklustre after declining yesterday alongside de-escalatory reports.APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, where markets reversed the post-FOMC moves amid a Fed credibility boost and lower oil prices.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include Quad witching, German PPI (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Aug), US Industrial/Manufacturing Production (Aug). Speakers include BoJ Governor Ueda, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bowman and Schmid. Credit Rating upgrades from Morningstar DBRS on France, Scope Ratings on France, and Moody's on Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump threatened to impose heavy tariffs on Europe if it considers Europe's decision to grant Canada observer status a hostile act.US President Trump said they are working very hard on Russia and Ukraine, while he added that the Ukraine war is the toughest war to end and is the one driving up diesel prices. On Iran, Trump said Iran wants to make a deal and hopefully we're more at the end of the Iran war.US equity futures climb and have pared entirely the downside seen post-Fed.DXY gives back some of Wednesday's gains; NZD strengthens following a stronger growth report.US 10-year yields fall back below 5%; Gilts on watch with BoE ahead.Energy benchmarks fall amid a lack of geopolitical escalation and constructive Trump comments.Looking ahead highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/12), Housing Starts (Aug), Building Permits Prelim. (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug). BoE Policy Announcement, CNB Policy Announcement. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Fed hiked rates by 25bps as expected in a unanimous decision, while the median projection saw another hike by year-end before rates remain on hold throughout 2027.The statement reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability, a message echoed by Chair Warsh in the press conference.US stocks were pressured and the major indices largely finished lower; APAC stocks traded mixed, DXY and yields held onto post-FOMC gains.US President Trump said the US may impose heavy tariffs on Europe if it considers Europe's decision to grant Canada observer status a hostile act.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Wednesday.Looking ahead highlights include EU Inflation Final (Aug), US Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/12), Housing Starts (Aug), Building Permits Prelim. (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug). BoE Policy Announcement, CNB Policy Announcement. Comments from ECB's Lane. Supply from Spain, France & the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian FM Araghchi said the MoU with the US is in effect and that Tehran wants to return to a peaceful solution, and added that Iran is not interested in continuing the conflict and looks forward to returning to a diplomatic solution.US equity futures gain, with the NQ outperforming following reports of a potential Intel-SK Hynix deal.DXY flat; GBP saw two-way price action as headline CPI returns above 3%.Fixed income benchmarks mixed; USTs await the FOMC policy announcement.Energy pares back the recent upside, helped by the constructive commentary from Iran.Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand GDP (Q2), Fed Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes. Speakers include ECB's Vujcic, Elderson & Nagel, Fed Chair Warsh.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US VP Vance told the NY Post that the conflict with Iran is expected to shift into a "much different phase" in the coming months.A US official said the military and Gulf countries have begun conducting daytime tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz, rather than only at night as in recent months, according to Axios.Crude futures pulled back after rallying again yesterday as a series of geopolitical and supply headlines lifted the benchmarks.APAC stocks were mixed in choppy trade, albeit with sentiment gradually improving; European equity futures indicate a modestly positive cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation (Aug), Italian Inflation Final (Aug), ECB Wage Tracker (Aug), US Retail Sales (Aug), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand GDP (Q2), Fed Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes. Speakers include ECB's Vujcic, Elderson & Nagel, Fed Chair Warsh. Supply from Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said Iranian forces have full control of the Strait of Hormuz and will prevent enemy vessels from crossing.The Bank of England has reportedly written plans with the DMO to overhaul its money-printing programme, with plans to stop selling 20- and 30-year gilts, according to the Telegraph.Global equities continue to be weighed on by higher energy prices and bond yields.DXY edges higher; GBP unreactive following a mixed jobs report.Fixed income benchmarks fall, with USTs underperforming; Gilts little moved amid the Telegraph report.Energy benchmarks remain at elevated levels as Houthis continue to strike Saudi military sites.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone and US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude futures remained firmer amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as Yemeni Houthis continued to target areas in Saudi Arabia, while Iran reiterated an unwillingness to negotiate an agreement with the US.IRGC Navy said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and remains under its control, according to Tasnim.APAC stocks traded mostly lower following the recent tech selling that was triggered by calls from industry CEOs for a slowdown in AI development; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.10yr UST futures declined amid gains in oil prices and after the US 10yr yield hit 5% for the first time since 2023; DXY edged higher in APAC trade.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs/Wages (Jul), French/Spanish Inflation Final (Aug), German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Sep), and US ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone. Supply from the UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk