Neil Shearing: The World Isn’t Deglobalizing; It’s Fracturing

Our guest on the podcast today is Scott Bondurant. Scott is the founder and chief investment officer of Bondurant Investment Advisory, a registered investment advisor based in the Chicago suburbs. He is also an adjunct professor at Northwestern University, where he teaches an undergraduate course on the history of investing. He recently published a white paper about the importance of incorporating mean reversion in financial planning and portfolio construction, which we’ll be discussing in this podcast. Scott has a BA from Stanford University and an MBA from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business. He started his career at Kidder Peabody and also worked for Paine Webber and Morgan Stanley before becoming a managing director for UBS.BackgroundBioBondurant Investment AdvisoryMean Reversion“Hidden in Plain Sight: The Dramatic Impact on Financial Planning and Portfolio Construction When Mean Reversion Is Incorporated in Risk and Return Expectations,” by Scott Bondurant, papers.ssrn.com, Nov. 25, 2024.“Understanding ‘Mean Reversion’ Can Make or Break Retirement,” by Scott Bondurant, rethinking65.com, June 13, 2024.“Mean Reversion: Unlocking a Foundational Investing Principle,” sbondinvest.com, Feb. 8, 2024.OtherFair Disclosure, Regulation FD“Charley Ellis: Indexing Is a Marvelous Gift,” The Long View podcast, morningstar.com, Aug. 5, 2025.Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation, by Edward ChancellorStocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies, by Jeremy Siegel“Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle,” by Jeremy Siegel and Richard Thaler, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter, 1997.“Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?” by Robert Shiller, papers.ssrn.com, April 12, 2004.Nebo Wealth

Listen Now: Listen and subscribe to Morningstar’s The Long View from your mobile device: Apple Podcasts | SpotifyOur guest on the podcast today is Joe Davis, global chief economist at Vanguard and global head of the firm’s Investment Strategy Group. He chairs the firm’s Strategic Asset Allocation Committee, which governs multi-asset class investment solutions. And he is a member of the senior portfolio management team of Vanguard’s Fixed Income Group. Joe is the author of a new book called Coming Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments. Joe earned his B.A. from St. Joseph’s University and his master’s and Ph.D. in economics at Duke University.BackgroundBioComing Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your InvestmentsTariffs and Treasury Bonds“Tariffs and Market Volatility: Perspectives for Investors,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, April 7, 2025.“Vanguard Warns of 9% Treasury Bond Yields if Deficits Keep Ballooning,” by Sam Bourgi, investorsobserver.com, June 17, 2025.“US Equity Outperformance,” video commentary by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Feb. 4, 2025.Artificial Intelligence and Megatrends“America Needs an AI Boom to Grow Out of Our Debt Problem. There Is No Guarantee,” by Joe Davis, barrons.com, May 23, 2025.“AI’s Impact on Productivity and the Workforce,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, March 4, 2025.“Active Investing? Don’t Overlook Value in the Age of AI,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Feb. 20, 2025.“Megatrends and the US Economy, 1890-2040,” by Joe Davis, Lukas Brandl-Cheng, and Kevin Khang, papers.ssrn.com, June 10, 2024.Other“Joe Davis: ‘We Will See China-Like Growth for a Time in the United States,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 14, 2021.

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and the author of a new book, The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. In addition to managing a team of economists and serving as a voice in the investment community, Neil is an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank. He joined Capital Economics in 2006 from the United Kingdom’s Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University of London and the University of York.BackgroundBioThe Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global EconomyChatham House“Neil Shearing: What You Might Be Missing About the Current Economy,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 16, 2024.Global Economic Fracturing, Tariffs, and AI“America or China? As the Global Economy Fractures, the World Will Have to Choose,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 14, 2025.“Trump, Institutions, and the Deafening Silence of the Markets,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 6, 2025.“Chinese Overcapacity Is a Disinflationary Gift and a Geopolitical Threat,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 21, 2025.“Fiscal Stability Is Now as Much About People as Policy,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 14, 2025.“This Trade War Is the Symptom—Global Fracturing Is the Cause,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 7, 2025.“’Tariff Man’ Returns, US-China Diverging Price Risks—and Is AI Triggering a Jobs Bloodbath?” The Weekly Briefing podcast, capitaleconomics.com, July 11, 2025.“Chip Choke: What Happens if China Throttles Taiwan’s Economy,” by Neil Shearing, afr.com, April 26, 2025.OtherHuaweiSmoot-Hawley Tariff ActBIS Triennial Central Bank Survey“America’s Biggest Rare-Earth Producer Makes a Play to End China’s Dominance,” by Jon Emont, wsj.com, July 15, 2025.

Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I’m Dan Lefkovitz, strategist for Morningstar Indexes. Our guest this week is Lawrence Lam. Lawrence is managing director and founder of Lumenary Investment Management based in Melbourne, Australia, a firm that specializes in founder-led companies globally. Lawrence is also the author of a new book called The Founder Effect. Lawrence has also been an investment banker, a derivatives consultant, and a financial regulator. He holds degrees from the University of Melbourne and is a lifetime basketball player.BackgroundBioLumenary Investment ManagementThe Founder EffectFounder-Led Companies“Four Signs a Founder-Led Company Isn’t Worth the Hype,” by Lawrence Lam, afr.com, May 2, 2025.“Lessons From the Rise and Fall of Founder-Led Companies,” by Lawrence Lam, firstlinks.com, March 26, 2025.Founder-Led Companies Mentioned“Yvon Chouinard: The Founder of Patagonia,” by Charlie King, sustainabilitymag.com, Oct. 4, 2024.FUCHSFortinetHermesUniqloReplyFlight CentreCase StudyChemist WarehouseLe Specs“Chemist Warehouse Founder Reveals His Success Secrets,” by Lawrence Lam, Morningstar.com.au, May 30, 2023.Other“Social Loafing in Psychology: Definition, Examples & Theory,” by Riley Hoffman, simplypsychology.org, Sept. 7, 2023.Arista

Today on The Long View, we’re featuring an episode from another Morningstar podcast, The Morning Filter, which you can subscribe to on Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.Usually, Susan Dziubinski sits down every Monday morning with Morningstar’s chief U.S. market strategist Dave Sekera to talk about the week ahead.But we’ve got something a bit different for you on the podcast this week. Instead of our usual deep dive into the market and stocks, we’re taking a step back to look at the big picture of investing: things like how to build a smart portfolio, avoid common investment mistakes, and time-tested principles to invest by.Our special guest is Christine Benz. Christine is Morningstar’s director of personal finance and retirement planning. She’s also the host of The Long View podcast and author of the book How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful and Wealthy Retirement.  Episode highlights: What you need to know from stocks to bonds, and core investments to dividend payers Things you shouldn’t overlook in retirement and tips for setting yourself up for successIs “set it and forget it” a good way to invest in today’s market? Read about topics from this episode. Tune in to The Long View podcast.Access Christine Benz’s article and video archive on Morningstar.com.Order a copy of Christine’s book, How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful and Wealthy Retirement.Register for the 2025 Bogleheads Conference.Watch the How to Retire podcast, a companion podcast to the How to Retire book. Follow Dave on social media.Dave Sekera on X: @MstarMarketsDave Sekera on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davesekera

Our guest on the podcast today is Nick Murray. Nick has written several influential books about investing and financial advice, including The Game of Numbers, Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth, and his latest, This Time Isn’t Different. His newsletter for financial advisors is called “Nick Murray Interactive,” and he also frequently leads seminars for financial advice professionals. Nick started out at EF Hutton, then moved on to Shearson and eventually to Bear Stearns. Since then, he has built his career around advising financial advisors.BackgroundAbout Nick MurrayNick Murray Interactive newslettersBooks and E-BooksThis Time Isn’t Different: Shockproofing Our ClientsThe Game of Numbers: Client Acquisition for Financial Advisors 2010Simple Wealth, Inevitable WealthNick Murray’s Scripts: What to Say and How to Say ItBehavioral Investment CounselingTalking It Over, Just The Two Of Us: A Guide for the Financial Advisor’s Life Partner with Joan MurrayAround the Year with Nick Murray: Daily Readings for Financial AdvisorsPodcasts and More“Financial Advisor Nick Murray,” Bloomberg Masters in Business podcast by Barry Ritholtz, Aug. 7, 2015“The Man Who Saved My Career: How Nick Murray came along and showed me my true purpose in this business,” by Josh Brown, downtownjoshbrown.com, May 21, 2024“The Value Proposition of a Financial Advisor With Nick Murray,” The Unlock podcast, May 21, 2024“The Golden Door For Financial Advice With Nick Murray,” The Unlock podcast, May 31, 2024“My Financial Planning Heroes: Nick Murray,” by Juniper team, juniperwealth.co.uk/blog, Jan. 1, 2025“Nick Murray’s Hard Truths for Advisors” by Jane Wollman Rusoff, thinkadvisor.com, March 5, 2015“Lessons Learned From the Legendary Financial Advisor Nick Murray,” Think Smart With TMFG podcast, Oct. 14, 2022“Murray: Financial Healing,” Consuelo Mack Wealthtrack, May 6, 2016

BackgroundBio“Charley Ellis: Why Active Investing Is Still a Loser’s Game,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 27, 2020.Rethinking Investing: A Very Short Guide to Very Long-Term InvestingWinning the Loser’s Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful InvestingIndex Investing and ETFs“Stock Pickers Are on a Record Run With Investors. Don’t Be Fooled, Says Index Fund Guru,” by Jason Gewirtz, cnbc.com, Feb. 14, 2025.“Investment Costs Make a Huge Difference,” by Robin Powell, ifa.com, Feb. 17, 2025.ETF Edge interview with Charley Ellis, cnbctv, Feb. 10, 2025.OtherRegulation Fair DisclosureAlfred MarshallThinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman

Today on the podcast we welcome back Cliff Asness. Cliff is the founder, managing principal, and chief investment officer at AQR Capital Management. Cliff writes often about investing and financial matters on AQR’s website and has been a prolific researcher throughout his career, with his contributions appearing in many of the leading scholarly journals, including the Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analyst’s Journal, the Journal of Finance, and the Journal of Financial Economics. Before co-founding AQR, Cliff was a managing director and director of quantitative research for the asset management division of Goldman Sachs. Cliff Asness, welcome back to The Long View.BackgroundBio@CliffordAsness“Cliff Asness: Value Stocks Still Look Like a Bargain,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 31, 2022.Macro Forecast, Market-Timing, and Equities“2035: An Allocator Looks Back Over the Last 10 Years,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, Jan. 2, 2025.“(So) What If You Miss the Market’s N Best Days?” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, June 5, 2025.“Why Not 100% Equities,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, Feb. 12, 2024.“Exceptional Expectations: US vs. Non-US Equities,” by Antti Ilmanen and Thomas Maloney, aqr.com, Q2 2025.Alternative Assets and Artificial Intelligence“In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, Sept. 4. 2024.“Should Hedge Funds Hedge?: Why Some Alts Should Have a Beta of 1.0,” by Cliff Asness, aqr.com, March 28, 2025.“We Have ‘Surrendered More to the Machines,’ Says Quant Fund Titan Cliff Asness,” by Costas Mourselas and Amelia Pollard, ft.com, June 3, 2025.“CIO Perspectives: An Interview With Cliff Asness,” aqr.com, Sept. 1, 2024.OtherWisdomTree“AQR Launches the AQR Fusion Mutual Fund Series,” AQR Funds News, aqr.com, June 25, 2025.Asian Financial Crisis

Today on the podcast we welcome back Nick Maggiulli. He’s the author of a new book called The Wealth Ladder: Proven Strategies for Every Step of Your Financial Life. His first book was called Just Keep Buying. In addition, Nick writes a wonderful blog called Of Dollars and Data, which is focused on the intersection between data and personal finance. In his day job, Nick is the Chief Operating Officer and Data Scientist at Ritholtz Wealth Management. He received his bachelor’s degree in economics from Stanford University. Nick, welcome back to The Long View.BackgroundBioOf Dollars and DataThe Wealth Ladder: Proven Strategies for Every Step of Your Financial LifeJust Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your WealthTopics Discussed“How to Make More Without Working More,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, July 7, 2025.“How Much House Is Too Much?” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Oct. 22, 2024.“Rich vs Wealthy: Summarizing the Differences,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, April 18, 2023.“What Is Liquid Net Worth? [And Why It’s So Important],” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Dec. 5, 2023.“Do You Need Alternatives to Get Rich?” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, May 28, 2024.“Concentration Is Not Your Friend,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, March 14, 2023.Other“Nick Maggiulli: ‘The Biggest Lie in Personal Finance,’” The Long View, Morningstar.com, April 12, 2022.Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances“High Income Improves Evaluation of Life But Not Emotional Well-Being,” by Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton, Princeton.edu, Aug. 4, 2010.“Experienced Well-Being Rises With Income, Even Above $75,000 Per Year,” by Matthew Killingsworth, pnas.org, Nov. 14, 2020.“Income and Emotional Well-Being: A Conflict Resolved,” by Matthew Killingsworth, Daniel Kahneman, and Barbara Mellers, pnas.org, Nov. 29, 2022.Of Dollars and Data Popular Posts“Even God Couldn’t Beat Dollar-Cost Averaging,” by Nick Maggiulli, ofdollarsanddata.com, Feb. 5, 2019.Get Good With Money, by Tiffany AlicheThe Millionaire Fastlane, by MJ DeMarcoThe Intelligent Asset Allocator, by William BernsteinHow to Retire, by Christine Benz

Our guest this week is Brian Selmo. Brian is a portfolio manager and research director at First Pacific Advisors. Since 2013, he has comanaged the FPA Crescent Fund with Steve Romick and Mark Landecker, and in 2021, he became comanager of the FPA Global Equity ETF. Both strategies are highly regarded by Morningstar’s Manager Research Team. Before joining FPA in 2008, Brian worked as an analyst at Third Avenue Management and at Rothschild, and was founder and portfolio manager of Eagle Lake Capital. Brian holds a degree from Johns Hopkins.Show NotesBackgroundBioLinkedInFPAFPA Crescent FundSteve Romick: ‘We Think Defensively’, The Long View podcast, Aug. 25, 2020.Morningstar Awards for Investing ExcellenceReferencesIn an Uncertain World: Tough Choices From Wall Street to Washington, by Robert E. Rubin and Jacob Weisberg