Mike Pyle: Looking for Uncorrelated Sources of Return

Our guest this week is Mike Pyle of BlackRock. Mike is managing director and deputy head of the Portfolio Management Group, which encompasses BlackRock’s fundamental and systematic investing teams across fixed income, equities, and multi-asset. He has also served as BlackRock’s chief investment strategist and portfolio manager of the Tactical Asset Allocation Team. Prior to and in between stints at BlackRock, Mike served extensively in government. He held economic policy roles in both the Obama and Biden administrations, participating in summits and negotiations. Mike holds degrees from Dartmouth, Yale, and Cambridge.BackgroundBioBlackRock Global Equity Market Neutral Institutional BDMIXTariffs, Policy, and Hedge Funds“US Resilience Has Been Underestimated: BlackRock’s Pyle,” video interview, Bloomberg.com, May 13, 2025.“Global Macro Matters: The Hidden Power of Smarter Macro Hedge Fund Allocations,” by Raffaele Savi, Phil Green, Michael Pensky, Stephanie Lee, Ronald Kahn, Michael Pyle, and Shams Orr-Hruska, blackrock.com, 2025.“More Room for Hedge Funds,” by Vivek Paul, Jeff Shen, Pierre Sarrau, Devan Nathwani, BlackRock.com, Aug. 20, 2025.Artificial Intelligence and DispersionMike Pyle’s video on AI-related investment on LinkedIn“At the Frontier: Insight on AI Technology Stocks,” by BlackRock, advisorperspectives.com, Sept. 15, 2025.“Equity Market Outlook: Q3 2025,” BlackRock.com.“Alpha Reimagined: How Big Data, AI and the Human Element Can Combine to Better Pursue Consistent Alpha,” BlackRock.com.OtherLarry Fink’s 2025 Annual Chairman’s Letter to Investors Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today on the podcast, we’re welcoming Barry Ritholtz. He’s co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a firm that was launched in 2013. He’s the creator and host of Masters in Business, one of the earliest finance-related podcasts. He also regularly posts on The Big Picture, where he’s been covering everything investing related since 2003. He is the author of Bailout Nation, and his latest book, How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth—and How to Avoid Them, has just been published.Background and BooksBarry Ritholtz LinkedInRitholtz Wealth ManagementBailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy, with New Post-Crisis UpdateHow Not to Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behavior that destroy wealth—and how to avoid themPodcasts and MoreMasters in Business podcastThe Big Picture“Masters in Business - Ray Dalio Full Show,” Masters in Business podcast, Nov. 30, 2018“An Interview With Ken Feinberg: Masters in Business,” Masters in Business podcast, Oct. 9, 2015“MiB: Charley Ellis on Rethinking Investing,” Masters in Business podcast, Feb. 21, 2025“Why Fear Is an Investor’s Worst Enemy” by Samantha Lamas from the 2017 Morningstar ETF Conference, Morningstar.com, Sept. 12, 2017“Rabbithole: What Do People Get Wrong About Money?” The Big Picture, March 10, 2025“It’s Been 40 Years Since Our Cover Story Declared ‘The Death of Equities,’ ” by Peter Coy, Bloomberg, Aug. 13, 2019ReadingsWinning the Loser’s Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing, Eighth Edition, by Charles D. EllisExpert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, by Philip E. TetlockFour Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals, by Oliver BurkemanPrinciples, by Ray Dalio Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Kerry Hannon. Kerry is a senior columnist and on-air expert for Yahoo Finance and writes about retirement, jobs, career transitions, entrepreneurship, leadership, and personal finance. She has written 14 books about retirement, careers, and personal finance and is co-author of a new book, Retirement Bites: A Gen X Guide to Securing Your Financial Future. Kerry is a former columnist and contributor for The New York Times, MarketWatch, Forbes, PBS, and AARP. She graduated from Duke University.BackgroundBioRetirement Bites: A Gen X Guide to Securing Your Financial Future, by Kerry Hannon and Janna Herron401(k)s and the Current Market“401(k) Savers Stayed Strong Through Market Volatility, Fidelity Found,” Video interview with Kerry Hannon, kerryhannon.com, June 15, 2025.“Experts Caution Adding Private Assets Like Crypto to 401(k)s,” Video interview with Kerry Hannon, kerryhannon.com, Aug. 17, 2025.“Retirement Savers Are Eager to Invest in Private Assets, New Survey Finds,” by Kerry Hannon, yahoofinance.com, Aug. 25, 2025.“Robust Returns and Steady Saving Yield Record Number of 401(k) Millionaires,” by Kerry Hannon, yahoofinance.com, Sept. 13, 2025.“401(k) Savers Play It Safe, Even as Demand for Private Assets Surge,” by Kerry Hannon, yahoofinance.com, Sept. 9, 2025.Social Security and Target-Date Funds“An Increasing Number of Americans Are Claiming Social Security Early This Year. What’s Up?” Video interview with Kerry Hannon, kerryhannon.com, May 14, 2025.“Some Retirees Will See Bump in Social Security Benefits in April,” Video interview with Kerry Hannon, kerryhannon.com, March 26, 2025.“Social Security Benefits Will Rise 2.5% in 2025,” by Kerry Hannon, yahoofinance.com, Oct. 13, 2024.“How to Build Your Own Target-Date Retirement Fund,” by Kerry Hannon, yahoofinance.com, Feb. 15, 2025.“2025 Target-Date Fund Investment Strategy,” Morningstar.com.“Americans’ Retirement Vehicle of Choice Just Topped $4 Trillion,” Video interview with Kerry Hannon, kerryhannon.com, May 21, 2025.Return to Office and Job Changes“More Men Are Returning to the Office. Here’s Why That Matters to Women,” by Kerry Hannon, yahoofinance.com, July 20, 2025.“Author: Getting Employees Back to the Office Is at an “Inflection Point,'” by Kerry Hannon, yahoofinance.com, Aug. 24, 2025.“Changing Jobs Can Shake-Up Saving for Retirement. Here’s How to Avoid That,” Video interview with Kerry Hannon, kerryhannon.com, May 3, 2025.OtherReality Bites (1994 movie)My Social Security account“Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice,” by Scott Cederburg, Aizhan Anarkulova, and Michael S. O’Doherty, papers.ssrn.com, July 10, 2025 (revised).“How Americans View Their Jobs,” by Juliana Menasce Horowitz and Kim Parker, pewresearch.org, March 30, 2023.“Kerry Hannon: Remote Work Trend Benefits Older Workers,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Oct. 21, 2020. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today on the podcast, we welcome back two previous guests. Dana Anspach is the founder and CEO of the financial planning firm, Sensible Money, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, and she has been practicing as a financial planner since 1995. Dana is also the author of the lecture series “How to Plan for the Perfect Retirement,” available on The Great Courses, and the author of the books Control Your Retirement Destiny and Social Security Sense. She has begun blogging about her own retirement journey on The Retirement Manifesto website.Fritz Gilbert retired in his mid-50s and has been blogging about his retirement experience ever since. He is the creator of The Retirement Manifesto, and he also wrote a book about retirement called, Keys to a Successful Retirement: Staying Happy, Active, and Productive in Your Retired Years.BackgroundDana Anspach BioSensible MoneyHow to Plan for the Perfect Retirement on The Great CoursesControl Your Retirement Destiny: Achieving Financial Security Before the Big Transition, by Dana AnspachSocial Security Sense: A Guide to Claiming Benefits for Those Age 60-70, by Dana Anspach“Dana Anspach: How to Build an All-Weather Retirement Plan,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Oct. 18, 2022.Fritz Gilbert BioThe Retirement ManifestoKeys to a Successful Retirement: Staying Happy, Active, and Productive in Your Retired Years, by Fritz Gilbert“Fritz Gilbert: Early Retirement Made Simple,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Oct. 27, 2021.Blogging and Phases of Retirement“A New Chapter for The Retirement Manifesto,” by Dana Anspach, theretirementmanifesto.com, May 22, 2025.“When to Start Planning for Retirement: Understanding the ‘Pre-Go’ Years,” Video with Dana Anspach, sensiblemoney.com, July 2, 2025.“Retirement—My Journey From ‘No, Never’ to ‘Maybe One Day,’” by Dana Anspach, theretirementmanifesto.com, June 5, 2025.“The Ten Commandments of Retirement,” by Fritz Gilbert, theretirementmanifesto.com, March 6, 2018.“The 4 Phases of Retirement,” by Fritz Gilbert, theretirementmanifesto.com, Feb. 1, 2024.“Why 28% of Retirees Are Depressed,” by Fritz Gilbert, theretirementmanifesto.com, June 22, 2023.Spending in Retirement and Social Security“Scared to Spend? (You’re Not Alone),” by Fritz Gilbert, theretirementmanifesto.com, Nov. 21, 2024.“The Role of Annuities in Retirement Planning 2024,” Webinar with Dana Anspach, sensiblemoney.com, May 24, 2024.“5 Top Regrets of Retirees (and How to Avoid Them),” by Fritz Gilbert, theretirementmanifesto.com, Jan. 30, 2025.“How Social Security Spousal Benefits May Change My Claim Date,” by Dana Anspach, theretirementmanifesto.com, June 26, 2025.“Rethinking the 4% Safe Withdrawal Rule,” by Fritz Gilbert, theretirementmanifesto.com, Nov. 18, 2021.“Don’t Cheat Yourself With the 4% Rule! 2021,” Webinar with Dana Anspach, sensiblemoney.com, May 18, 2021.The Safe Withdrawal Rate Series (Early Retirement Now with Karsten Jeske, also known as “Big Ern”)Tax Planning“The Golden Age of Roth Conversions,” by Fritz Gilbert, theretirementmanifesto.com, Oct. 12, 2023.“My Biggest Surprise in Retirement,” by Fritz Gilbert, theretirementmanifesto.com, June 12, 2025.OtherFreedom for FidoThe Four Phases of Retirement: What to Expect When You’re Retiring, by Riley MoynesDie With Zero: Getting All You Can From Your Money and Your Life, by Bill Perkins“Guaranteed Income: A License to Spend,” by David Blanchett and Michael Finke, Retirement Income Institute, June 2024.A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More, by Bill BengenAsset Dedication Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is author and retirement coach, Larry Jacobson. Larry is the author of a book called Your Ideal Retirement Workbook, A Step-by-Step Guide to Retiring With Purpose and Fulfillment, which coaches its readers on the steps to take to find purpose and identity in retirement. He embarked on a career as a retirement coach after stepping away from corporate life, and he sold his business in order to sail around the world.BackgroundLarryJacobson.comYour Ideal Retirement Workbook: A Step-by-Step Guide to Retiring With Purpose and FulfillmentYourIdealRetirementWorkbook.comThe Boy Behind the Gate: How His Dream of Sailing Around the World Became a Six-Year Odyssey of Adventure, Fear, Discovery, and LoveTED Talks episodesSail Into RetirementOtherOwntheStage.comBuoyTraining.comRetirement Coaches AssociationTransitions, by William BridgesMaslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is Scott Bondurant. Scott is the founder and chief investment officer of Bondurant Investment Advisory, a registered investment advisor based in the Chicago suburbs. He is also an adjunct professor at Northwestern University, where he teaches an undergraduate course on the history of investing. He recently published a white paper about the importance of incorporating mean reversion in financial planning and portfolio construction, which we’ll be discussing in this podcast. Scott has a BA from Stanford University and an MBA from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business. He started his career at Kidder Peabody and also worked for Paine Webber and Morgan Stanley before becoming a managing director for UBS.BackgroundBioBondurant Investment AdvisoryMean Reversion“Hidden in Plain Sight: The Dramatic Impact on Financial Planning and Portfolio Construction When Mean Reversion Is Incorporated in Risk and Return Expectations,” by Scott Bondurant, papers.ssrn.com, Nov. 25, 2024.“Understanding ‘Mean Reversion’ Can Make or Break Retirement,” by Scott Bondurant, rethinking65.com, June 13, 2024.“Mean Reversion: Unlocking a Foundational Investing Principle,” sbondinvest.com, Feb. 8, 2024.OtherFair Disclosure, Regulation FD“Charley Ellis: Indexing Is a Marvelous Gift,” The Long View podcast, morningstar.com, Aug. 5, 2025.Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation, by Edward ChancellorStocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies, by Jeremy Siegel“Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle,” by Jeremy Siegel and Richard Thaler, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter, 1997.“Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?” by Robert Shiller, papers.ssrn.com, April 12, 2004.Nebo Wealth Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Listen Now: Listen and subscribe to Morningstar’s The Long View from your mobile device: Apple Podcasts | SpotifyOur guest on the podcast today is Joe Davis, global chief economist at Vanguard and global head of the firm’s Investment Strategy Group. He chairs the firm’s Strategic Asset Allocation Committee, which governs multi-asset class investment solutions. And he is a member of the senior portfolio management team of Vanguard’s Fixed Income Group. Joe is the author of a new book called Coming Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your Investments. Joe earned his B.A. from St. Joseph’s University and his master’s and Ph.D. in economics at Duke University.BackgroundBioComing Into View: How AI and Other Megatrends Will Shape Your InvestmentsTariffs and Treasury Bonds“Tariffs and Market Volatility: Perspectives for Investors,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, April 7, 2025.“Vanguard Warns of 9% Treasury Bond Yields if Deficits Keep Ballooning,” by Sam Bourgi, investorsobserver.com, June 17, 2025.“US Equity Outperformance,” video commentary by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Feb. 4, 2025.Artificial Intelligence and Megatrends“America Needs an AI Boom to Grow Out of Our Debt Problem. There Is No Guarantee,” by Joe Davis, barrons.com, May 23, 2025.“AI’s Impact on Productivity and the Workforce,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, March 4, 2025.“Active Investing? Don’t Overlook Value in the Age of AI,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Feb. 20, 2025.“Megatrends and the US Economy, 1890-2040,” by Joe Davis, Lukas Brandl-Cheng, and Kevin Khang, papers.ssrn.com, June 10, 2024.Other“Joe Davis: ‘We Will See China-Like Growth for a Time in the United States,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 14, 2021. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and the author of a new book, The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. In addition to managing a team of economists and serving as a voice in the investment community, Neil is an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank. He joined Capital Economics in 2006 from the United Kingdom’s Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University of London and the University of York.BackgroundBioThe Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global EconomyChatham House“Neil Shearing: What You Might Be Missing About the Current Economy,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 16, 2024.Global Economic Fracturing, Tariffs, and AI“America or China? As the Global Economy Fractures, the World Will Have to Choose,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 14, 2025.“Trump, Institutions, and the Deafening Silence of the Markets,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, Aug. 6, 2025.“Chinese Overcapacity Is a Disinflationary Gift and a Geopolitical Threat,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 21, 2025.“Fiscal Stability Is Now as Much About People as Policy,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 14, 2025.“This Trade War Is the Symptom—Global Fracturing Is the Cause,” by Neil Shearing, capitaleconomics.com, July 7, 2025.“’Tariff Man’ Returns, US-China Diverging Price Risks—and Is AI Triggering a Jobs Bloodbath?” The Weekly Briefing podcast, capitaleconomics.com, July 11, 2025.“Chip Choke: What Happens if China Throttles Taiwan’s Economy,” by Neil Shearing, afr.com, April 26, 2025.OtherHuaweiSmoot-Hawley Tariff ActBIS Triennial Central Bank Survey“America’s Biggest Rare-Earth Producer Makes a Play to End China’s Dominance,” by Jon Emont, wsj.com, July 15, 2025. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I’m Dan Lefkovitz, strategist for Morningstar Indexes. Our guest this week is Lawrence Lam. Lawrence is managing director and founder of Lumenary Investment Management based in Melbourne, Australia, a firm that specializes in founder-led companies globally. Lawrence is also the author of a new book called The Founder Effect. Lawrence has also been an investment banker, a derivatives consultant, and a financial regulator. He holds degrees from the University of Melbourne and is a lifetime basketball player.BackgroundBioLumenary Investment ManagementThe Founder EffectFounder-Led Companies“Four Signs a Founder-Led Company Isn’t Worth the Hype,” by Lawrence Lam, afr.com, May 2, 2025.“Lessons From the Rise and Fall of Founder-Led Companies,” by Lawrence Lam, firstlinks.com, March 26, 2025.Founder-Led Companies Mentioned“Yvon Chouinard: The Founder of Patagonia,” by Charlie King, sustainabilitymag.com, Oct. 4, 2024.FUCHSFortinetHermesUniqloReplyFlight CentreCase StudyChemist WarehouseLe Specs“Chemist Warehouse Founder Reveals His Success Secrets,” by Lawrence Lam, Morningstar.com.au, May 30, 2023.Other“Social Loafing in Psychology: Definition, Examples & Theory,” by Riley Hoffman, simplypsychology.org, Sept. 7, 2023.Arista Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today on The Long View, we’re featuring an episode from another Morningstar podcast, The Morning Filter, which you can subscribe to on Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.Usually, Susan Dziubinski sits down every Monday morning with Morningstar’s chief U.S. market strategist Dave Sekera to talk about the week ahead.But we’ve got something a bit different for you on the podcast this week. Instead of our usual deep dive into the market and stocks, we’re taking a step back to look at the big picture of investing: things like how to build a smart portfolio, avoid common investment mistakes, and time-tested principles to invest by.Our special guest is Christine Benz. Christine is Morningstar’s director of personal finance and retirement planning. She’s also the host of The Long View podcast and author of the book How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful and Wealthy Retirement.  Episode highlights: What you need to know from stocks to bonds, and core investments to dividend payers Things you shouldn’t overlook in retirement and tips for setting yourself up for successIs “set it and forget it” a good way to invest in today’s market? Read about topics from this episode. Tune in to The Long View podcast.Access Christine Benz’s article and video archive on Morningstar.com.Order a copy of Christine’s book, How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful and Wealthy Retirement.Register for the 2025 Bogleheads Conference.Watch the How to Retire podcast, a companion podcast to the How to Retire book. Follow Dave on social media.Dave Sekera on X: @MstarMarketsDave Sekera on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davesekera Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.