Apocalypse Soon? The US and NATO at a Crossroads

With Chris galavanting across Europe, Stimson's Emma Ashford joins Melanie and Zack to debate whether the United States is undermining deterrence in Europe. What does a decreased U.S. conventional commitment mean for the risk of nuclear escalation? And might Vladimir Putin see this as an opportunity to test the alliance by attacking a NATO member, either now or in the future? Emma also commends Scotland's Tartan Army while Melanie criticizes the firing of General Christopher Donahue and Zack laments the dismissal of career officials by the acting Director of National Intelligence.   Show Links:   Celeste A. Wallander, "The Coming Crisis of NATO Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, May 28, 2026. Rose Gottemoeller, "The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026. Ellen Nakashima and Warren P. Strobel, "New acting intel czar Bill Pulte starts trimming staff as Trump urged," Washington Post, June 25, 2026. Daryl Press and Jennifer Lind, "The Broken Nuclear Umbrella: What Comes After Extended Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026.  Recommended Reading: Evan Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, "Friendly Proliferation and the Future of the Japan-US Alliance," The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2026.  Samuel Charap and Hiski Ahukkala, Europe's Next War: The Rising Risk of NATO-Russia Conflict, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026. Michael Kofman, The Next Russia Threat: Moscow's Military Power after Ukraine, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026. David J. Bobb and Tony Williams, Divided Over the Declaration: How an Enduring Debate Sustains the Vision of America. 

In this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the benefits and costs for U.S. allies and partners who host U.S. bases on their territory. As traditional allies have limited air space and basing access to the United States during the Iran war, has a major fault line in American strategy been publicly exposed? And if allies do limit wartime access in the future, will it stop the United States from fighting both wise and unwise wars? Grievances for Keir Starmer's government in the UK, especially its approach to national security and energy; for Tulsi Gabbards' decision to release information about supposed U.S. biolabs on her way out the door, and to all of those saying that stopping a war requires a vote of Congress, but starting one doesn't. Attas to Americans (and Canadians and Mexicans) for welcoming the world for the World Cup games; a lukewarm atta to the New York Knicks for winning the NBA Championship; and an enthusiastic atta to Melanie's niece Miriam for making the swim team!   Show Links:   Rachel Metz, "Iran and the Hidden Cost of Wartime Access," Foreign Affairs. Austin Carson, Rachel Metz, and Paul Poast, "Allies and Access: Implications of an American Turn Away from Alliances," International Organization. 2025;79(S1):S103-S116. doi:10.1017/S0020818325100982. Tongfi Kim, "Why Alliances Entangle But Seldom Entrap States,' Security Studies, 2011; 20(3), 350–377. Jared Isaacman, X post, June 9, 2026. John Bew, What's Britain's Place in the Post-Iran World Order?", The Spectator (US), April 16, 2026. Ivana Kottasova, Two Top UK Defense Officials Resign over Military Spending in Fresh Blow to Keir Starmer, CNN, June 12, 2026.  Zack Cooper (editor), "Extended Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific," National Bureau of Asian Research, June 15, 2026. Mira Rapp-Hooper and Zack Cooper, "Washington's Asian Allies Need a Backup Plan," Foreign Policy, June 11, 2026.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a chat about how Mexico is handling the drug cartels, which continue to perpetrate terrible violence and facilitate massive corruption in the country. Can President Claudia Sheinbaum enact an anti-cartel strategy that will reduce the violence? Are institutions in government and the private sector too corrupt for any strategy to succeed? Will Trump, whose patience with Sheinbaum is limited, order military strikes on cartel targets in Mexico? And does she have any leverage to prevent this?   Chris recognizes the life and legacy of Brian Finlay, Stimson's President and CEO, who passed away on June 3rd.   Show Links:   David Mora, Why Mexico's Cartels are So Hard to Defeat: The Real Test of Sheinbaum's Security Strategy, Foreign Affairs, May 20, 2026.   Jim Geraghty, In the Information War, the US Unilaterally Disarmed, Washington Post, May 26, 2026. Gavin Bade, Santiago Perez, and Christopher Otts, The Trump Administration Wants Autos Under USMCA to Be at Least 50% Made in America, Wall Street Journal, May 29, 2026. Fact Sheet: AUKUS Pillar II Signature Project, Department of Defense, May 30, 2026. Maria Abi-Habib and Eric Schmitt, Guatemala Agrees to Joint Strikes with U.S. Against Drug Gangs, New York Times, May 28, 2026. "Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy | The Lionel Gelber Prize". Declan Walsh, "Inside the Ebola Epicenter, the Virus Rages With Little to Stop It," New York Times, May 30, 2026. Michael Cohen and Will A. Smith, "Is the Iran War Worth It?" May 29, 2026. "Remarks by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore (As Delivered)," U.S. Department of War, May 30, 2026. Stimson Remembers the Life and Legacy of President and CEO Brian Finlay • Stimson Center

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Wess Mitchell's proposed U.S. strategy of consolidation. They discuss whether this strategy would finally realign America's objectives with its resources. They also question the Trump administration's ability or willingness to execute such an approach. Chris commends Tom Stevenson's essay on the war in Afghanistan, Melanie questions the lack of American ambassadors worldwide, and Zack expresses frustration with the meager results of the Trump-Xi meeting. Show Links: Robbie Gramer, Trump Still Hasn't Appointed More Than 100 Ambassadors, Some to Key Allies, Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2026. Chao Deng, This Arkansas Town is Humming with the Sound of Missile Making, Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2026. Zachary Federico, Utah Breaks Down Occupational Licensing Barriers for Veterans, ALEC, May 14, 2026. Sean Hannity interview with Donald Trump, May 14, 2026.  Wolfgang Munchau, Boots on the Ground is Trump's Best Option, UnHerd, May 11, 2026 Tom Stevenson, We Were Doing Well When I Left, London Review of Books, May 2026. Gil Barndollar and Jason Dempsey, Don't Believe the Generals, The Atlantic, September 2, 2022. A. Wess Mitchell, "A Grand Strategy of Consolidation," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026. Sal Mercogliano, "The Great Battleship Debate," What's Going on With Shipping channel, YouTube, May 12, 2026.

Do we live in a world governed only by force, one in which the United States' military and economic power alone will advance U.S. interests? Or are the Trump administration's efforts to intimidate even U.S. allies and partners bound to generate resistance? And what will be the consequences for Americans if Trump's predatory behavior fails? Grievances for Charles Lieber, a former Harvard scientist now building China's i-BRAIN lab, for Beijing's efforts to block U.S. economic sanctions, and to the U.S. State Department for refusing to recognize foreign service officers killed in the service of the country. Attas to Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy for declining to bail out Spirit Airlines, for King Charles for his flawless visit to the United States, and to those members of Congress finally standing up to Trump's claim that he can wage war wherever he wants, for as long as he wants.   Show Links:   Stephen Walt, "The Predatory Hegemon" Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026. Elissa Miolene, "Exiled from State, America's foreign service holds its own memorial," Devex, May 4, 2026. "China's Commerce Ministry blocks US sanctions against five refineries," Reuters, May 2, 2026. "Sean Duffy stands up for taxpayers," Washington Post, May 3, 2026. Alex Bristow, "James Curran is Wrong about Japan's Realist PM and China," Sidney Morning Herald, May 3, 2026. David Kirton, "Convicted Former Harvard Scientist Rebuilds Brain Computer Lab in China," Reuters, April 30, 2026.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about whether the United Nations can and should continue in its current form. Has it outlived its original purposes? Does it serve the interests of the United States and the world? Should the United States continue to reduce its presence at the UN, or should it work to make the international body more relevant and effective? What should be the focus of the Secretary-General who takes the helm in 2027?   Chris is appalled at the unserious leadership at the top of the FBI, Zack has a shoutout for Anthropic, which is working with the US government, financial institutions, and other major entities to understand their vulnerabilities to increasingly sophisticated AI, and Melanie objects to the obvious and growing corruption in Washington.    *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links:   Jeremy Lott, "The president and the pope: Trump tangles with an American pontiff," Washington Examiner, April 17, 2026. Sarah Fitzpatrict, "The FBI Director Is MIA," The Atlantic, April 17, 2026. Christopher Preble and Lucas Ruiz, "Why Strategic Superiority (Still) Doesn't Matter: Nuclear Crises and the Failure of Theory," April 16, 2026. "Untangling the Web of US Alliances," Stimson Center, In-Person and Online Event, May 5, 2026. Peter Caddick-Adams, Can the United Nations Survive?", Engelsberg Ideas, April 15, 2026. Impact Exchange: Reimagining Economies Through Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, February 24, 2026. Volodymyr Zelensky, X post, April 19, 2026. Saikrishna Prakash, The Presidential Pardon: The Short Clause with a Long, Troubled History.

On this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack consider whether the porcupine strategy that Taiwan is currently implementing is the best plan to deter or defend against China. What could Taiwan be doing better, and how can the United States and other friendly countries help? And have we learned any lessons from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz that are relevant to a Taiwan conflict? Chris laments the administration's proposed defense budget, and Melanie pans VP JD Vance for going to Hungary to campaign for Victor Orban. Zack gives a shout out to the astronauts and engineers behind Artemis II, and Melanie commends the U.S. military's successful rescue of downed pilots in Iran.    Show Links:   Stacie Pettyjohn and Molly Campbell, "Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age," War on the Rocks, March 27, 2026. Stacie Pettyjohn and Molly Campbell, "Hellscape for Taiwan: Rethinking Asymmetric Defense," CNAS, February 26, 2026. Stephanie Yang, "As Taiwan steels its defenses against China, some are hatching escape plans," CNN, April 3, 2026. Editorial, "Taiwan's self-defense paradox," Washington Post, April 5, 2026. Raymond Kuo and Catherine Kish, "Taiwan's Will to Fight Isn't the Problem," War on the Rocks, September 5, 2025. Alastair Gale, Japan's Tomahawk Missile Order Delayed by US Use in Iran, Bloomberg, April 3, 2026. Gerry Doyle, "US Deploys Bulk of Stealthy Long-Range Missiles for Iran War," Bloomberg, April 4, 2026. Phil Stewart, Idrees Ali, and Humeyra Pamuk, "How a Perilous US Rescue Mission in Iran Nearly Went Off Course," Reuters, April 7, 2026.  Supporting Stimson

What are the goals in the US war in Iran? Is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz manageable, or is the Iranian threat to shipping a challenge that must be confronted? And can it be resolved at an acceptable cost? Melanie, Chris, and Zack, discuss the latest from the war, with a particular focus on the threat posed to international shipping in the vital waterway. Grievances for Jeremy Corbyn, and for the Trump administration's decision to remove sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. Attas to Japanese Prime Minister Takaichii Sanae for navigating her meeting with President Trump, to a federal judge for affirming that the press has First Amendment rights, and to Sean Penn for skipping the Academy Awards ceremony. Melania also acknowledges the incredible life and career of New York Times' war reporter John Burns who passed this month.   Show Links:   Caitlin Talmadge, "The Hormuz Minefield: In the Strait, Iran Holds the Advantage—and America Has No Good Options," Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2026. Rosemary Kelanic, "Trump Is Making Jimmy Carter's Mistake on Iran and Oil," New York Times, March 9, 2026. Charlie Savage, "Striking Down Pentagon Press Limits, Judge Vindicates Independent Journalism," New York Times, March 20, 2026. Michael Cohen and Christopher Preble, "The Perils of Lethality," Stimson Center, June 24, 2026 Phil Klay, "Trump Has Made a Fundamental Miscalculation about Iran," New York Times, March 22, 2026. Eli Stokols, Ben Johansen, Jack Detsch, and Paul McLeary, "Inside the White House Plan to Sell the Iran War Online," Politico, March 18, 2026. Alan Cowell, "John F. Burns, Prize-Winning Foreign Correspondent for The Times, Dies at 81," New York Times, March 13, 2026. Jack Watling, "Iran's Hormuz Blockade is Its Most Powerful Card Against Trump and Israel. It Won't Back Down Easily," The Guardian, March 16, 2026.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about how America's allies and partners, after decades of relying on the US for security, are derisking from what they view as an increasingly unpredictable and unfriendly power. How much of their hedging is about President Trump, and how much is due to the growing clout of middle powers, world events, or other factors? What should our allies be doing to constructively protect themselves in terms of their economic and national security? And what do the reactions of world leaders to the conflict in Iran tell us about how they view their relationships with the United States?   Chris has a grievance for people, especially those with inside information, betting on war, Zack congratulates Congress for exercising its oversight responsibilities, and Melanie wonders what the purpose of the UN even is anymore.    Show Links:   James M. Lindsay, "Will US Allies Succeed in Hedging Against the United States?", Council on Foreign Relations, February 18, 2026. Shayan Sardarizadeh, X feed. Emmanuel Macron, Speech on France's Nuclear Deterrence, March 4, 2026. "At Last, Reasons to be Cheerful about European Tech," The Economist, March 1, 2026. Henry J. Gomez, "Vance's anti-war posture collides with his more hawkish views on Iran," NBC News, March 3, 2026. Chris Cook, Oliver Hawkins, Eade Hemingway and Stephanie Stacey, "Polymarket users won big with unusual bets on US attack on Iran," Financial Times, March 3, 2026 Flight 93 National Memorial (U.S. National Park Service)

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the wisdom of President Trump's proposal for a Golden Fleet of new American "battleships." They question the strategic logic, timelines, cost estimates, and political dynamics behind the proposal. Chris commends USA Hockey for its gold medal performance at the Olympics while Melanie questions Eileen Gu's comments there and Zack expresses appreciation for the Supreme Court's tariff decision.   Show Links:   Eli Rosenberg, "Who is US women's hockey star Megan Keller? A BC alum, and more," NBC Connecticut, February 19, 2026. Christopher A. Preble and Celia Clark, "The Brooklyn Navy Yard revived | 12 | A defense conversion case study," 2016. Sam Mercoliagno, X post, February 22, 2026. Ben Jensen, "Why the Golden Fleet Will Sail," CSIS, January 9, 2026.   Fighting Instructions, US Navy, February 9, 2026.   Carline Downey, "Alysa Liu Is a Spunky, Gen Z National Treasure and a Force of American Athleticism," National Review, February 21, 2026. Sean Gregory, "'I Don't Believe in Limits': How Eileen Gu Became Freestyle Skiing's Biggest Star," Time, January 22, 2026. Trent Hone, "Why the U.S. Navy Doesn't Build Battleships Anymore," War on the Rocks, January 12, 2026. Mark Cancian, "The Golden Fleet's Battleship Will Never Sail," CSIS, December 23, 2025. U.S. Navy, "Webpage currently under construction," accessed February 24, 2026. Ellen Nakashima et al., "Tulsi Gabbard's appearances at Fulton County FBI raid raises questions," Washington Post, January 30, 2026 Zack Cooper, "Asia After America," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026