Net Assessment Assesses the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment

The team sits down to talk about the new OSTP report, Science: A New Golden Age. What role should the government have in the scientific enterprise? What should national scientific goals be? It is time to integrate new funding models into research and development, or does that unacceptably increase the risk for politicization of science? Does the report's emphasis on breakthroughs that benefit the public more quickly ignore the importance of foundational research?   Coming up on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Chris gives an atta to Joe Biden for making the hard decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan 5 years ago. Zack has a shoutout for Moderna and Merck for continued work on mRNA cancer vaccines, and Melanie congratulates British Prime Minister Andy Burnham for going to Kyiv and giving Ukraine classified data so it can produce Scalp long-range missiles.   Show Links:   Gil Barndollar, "Five Years Later, Biden Was Proven Right in Withdrawing From Afghanistan," American Prospect, August 17, 2026. Matthew Harper, Jason Mast, and Angus Chen, "Inside Moderna and Merck's cancer vaccine triumph," STAT News, August 24, 2026. Eric S. Edelman, "The Unintended Consequences of Trump's Turn Against South Korea," The Dispatch, August 21, 2026. Michael Kratsios, Science: A New Golden Age, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, July 2026. Includes Russell T. Vought/Michael Kratsios Memorandum for the Heads of Executive Departments and Agencies, July 21, 2026. Vannevar Bush, Science: The Endless Frontier, GPO, 1945. Bill Ackman, X post, August 19, 2026. Andrea Palasciano, US Presses Allies on Ideological Loyalty Ahead of Troop Cuts, Bloomberg, August 14, 2026. George Parker and Polina Ivanova, Andy Burnham Condemns Russia's 'Outrageous Threats' to UK During Kyiv Visit, Financial Times, August 24, 2026.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Michael Fuchs's recent article arguing for a U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East. They also discuss the impact of the Iran War and shifting American attitudes towards Israel as well as the Saudi-U.S. nuclear deal and the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani collective defense agreement. Chris commends the Congressional Budget Office's battleship assessment, and Melanie gives credit to CSIS's team for its work on munitions, while Zack laments the Congress giving the executive branch more leeway on tariffs. *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links: Michael Fuchs, "America Must Let Go of the Middle East," Foreign Affairs, August 8, 2026. Matthew Kroenig and Henry Sokolski, "The Saudi Nuclear Deal Invites Disaster," Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2026. Daniel Poneman, "Critics of the U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Have It Exactly Wrong," New York Times, August 6, 2026. "Advancing American Safety, Strength, and Prosperity in Southeast Asia," U.S. Mission to ASEAN, July 23, 2026. Neil Irwin, "Trump may get a big, new tariff authority," Axios, August 6, 2026. "The Navy's New Battleship Program: Costs and Implications for the Shipbuilding Industrial Base, Congressional Budget Office", August 5, 2026. Philip E. Auerswald, "The Irrelevance of the Middle East", The American Interest, May 2007 Justin Logan, "Why the Middle East Still Doesn't Matter", Politico Magazine, October 9, 2014. "The U.S.-Saudi Agreement for Civil Nuclear Cooperation: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions", Arms Control Association, August 7, 2026. Christopher Preble and Alessandro Perri, "Assumption Testing: The Iran War Is a Case of Alliance Entanglement", Stimson Center, August 3, 2026. Christopher Preble and Lucas Ruiz, "In a Nuclear World, Arms Control Is the Only True Deterrent", Inkstick, August 10. 2026. Mark Cancian and Chris Park, Six Reasons Why the US is Low on Munitions, CSIS, July 31, 2026. CSIS Missile Defense Project Alexandra Sharp, The Middle East Tries Its Hand at a NATO-Style Pact, Foreign Policy, August 7, 2026. Daniel C. Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller, Trump's Saudi Nuclear Deal is Diplomatic Malpractice, Foreign Policy, July 27, 2026. Eric S. Edelman, With the Saudi Deal, Trump Risks Aiding and Abetting a Nuclear Arms Race, The Dispatch, July 28, 2026. 

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss public attitudes toward the United States and China, and the Trump administration's response  -- which mostly seems to deny that they matter. Why does much of the world view the United States less favorably, and China more favorably, than it did just a few years ago? Is this just a temporary decline that can be overcome with a new administration or nicer advisors? Does it even matter to American interests if we aren't loved? Grievances to the Pentagon for its secrecy and dissembling around casualties in the Iran War, and for thinking that its problems can be solved with more testosterone, and to the Coast Guard for its Polar Security Cutter program which is grossly overbudget and badly delayed. Attas to members of Congress for calling out the Pentagon's secrecy and dissembling around the Iran War, to those who pushed back on the Trump administration's plan to investigate the New York Times and Google for a series of leaks surrounding the new Air Force One, and for those uncovering and publishing the COVID files.   Show Links:   Jonathan Schulman, Laura Silver, Laura Clancy, and William Miner, "People in Many Countries Now View China More Positively Than the U.S.," Pew Research Center, July 15, 2026. "America's Report Card in Southeast Asia," Net Assessment, War on the Rocks, April 11, 2024. Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby, @USWPColby, X, July 14, 2026. Opinion, "Iran, China, Canada? A Defense of Trump's Grand Strategy," Interesting Times, New York Times, July 23, 2026. Biyon Sony Joseph, "Washington misreads middle power cooperation," Lowy Institute, July 23, 2026. Helene Cooper, Lara Jakes, and John Ismay, "Number of U.S. Troop Deaths Suddenly Appears Lower on Pentagon Website," New York Times, July 23, 2026. Helene Cooper, "Pentagon Changes How It Reports Casualties in Iran War," July 26, 2026. Tom Nichols, "The American People Need the Truth About the Iran War," The Atlantic, July 22, 2026. Nancy A. Youssef and Jonathan Lemire, "War by Any Other Name," The Atlantic, July 21, 2026 Jenny Leonard, Trump's Aides See China Cheating on Trade, But Shun Reprisal, Bloomberg, July 15, 2026. Alexander Burns, A New Report Offers a Stark Warning to Centrists, July 24, 2026. Sam Westfall and Dan Diamond, Fauci's Diary Reveals His Thoughts on a 'Rambling' Trump and His Own Fame, Washington Post, July 27, 2026. Malte Humpert, U.S. Polar Security Cutter Delayed to 2033 as Costs Top $6 Billion, GAO Warns, gCaptain, July 22, 2026. Ron Wyden, Statement on Congressional Trade Powers Reform Act of 2026, July 22, 2026.  Sebastian Junger, "There's More to Peak Military Performance Than Testosterone. I've Seen It." Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2026. Michael M. Grynbaum and Jonah E. Bromwich, "U.S. Withdraws Subpoenas Issued to New York Times Journalists," New York Times, July 23, 2026

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a look at the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment. Does the document get the threats, and their prioritiztion, right? How does Trump administration policy align with what the intelligence community determines to be the most critical threats facing the US in the next year? Has the two-decades-old ODNI experiment has run its course? Chris commends Global Affairs Canada and the Stimson Center for jointly honoring the late Stimson Center president, Brian Finlay, with an award in his name, the Brian Finlay Innovation in Threat Reduction Award. Zack has some kind words for Senator Lindsey Graham, who just passed away, and Melanie criticizes NATO leaders for wimping out at the end of a summit where the primary goal was to demonstrate the ability to fight.   Show Links:   2026 Annual Threat Assessment, ODNI, March 14, 2026. Andreas Kluth, If the US Keeps Messing with this Spy Agency, It'll Pay a High Price, Bloomberg, July 9, 2026. Dan Lomas and Matthew Savill, Missing Intelligence: The Trump Administration, Iran, and the US Intelligence Community, Royal United Services Institute, May 21, 2026. Ott Tammik, Erodgan's NATO Gift of Revolvers Runs into Europe's Gun Laws, Bloomberg, July 10, 2026. Aaron Blake, Tulsi Gabbard Went Down to Georgia, and No One in the Trump Administration Wants to Take Credit, CNN, February 5, 2026. "Global Affairs Canada and the Stimson Center Launch the Brian Finlay Innovation in Threat Reduction Award," Stimson Center, July 1, 2026. Melanie Marlowe, X, 10:28 PM – 7/6/26.

With Chris galavanting across Europe, Stimson's Emma Ashford joins Melanie and Zack to debate whether the United States is undermining deterrence in Europe. What does a decreased U.S. conventional commitment mean for the risk of nuclear escalation? And might Vladimir Putin see this as an opportunity to test the alliance by attacking a NATO member, either now or in the future? Emma also commends Scotland's Tartan Army while Melanie criticizes the firing of General Christopher Donahue and Zack laments the dismissal of career officials by the acting Director of National Intelligence.   Show Links:   Celeste A. Wallander, "The Coming Crisis of NATO Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, May 28, 2026. Rose Gottemoeller, "The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026. Ellen Nakashima and Warren P. Strobel, "New acting intel czar Bill Pulte starts trimming staff as Trump urged," Washington Post, June 25, 2026. Daryl Press and Jennifer Lind, "The Broken Nuclear Umbrella: What Comes After Extended Deterrence," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026.  Recommended Reading: Evan Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, "Friendly Proliferation and the Future of the Japan-US Alliance," The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2026.  Samuel Charap and Hiski Ahukkala, Europe's Next War: The Rising Risk of NATO-Russia Conflict, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026. Michael Kofman, The Next Russia Threat: Moscow's Military Power after Ukraine, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2026. David J. Bobb and Tony Williams, Divided Over the Declaration: How an Enduring Debate Sustains the Vision of America. 

In this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the benefits and costs for U.S. allies and partners who host U.S. bases on their territory. As traditional allies have limited air space and basing access to the United States during the Iran war, has a major fault line in American strategy been publicly exposed? And if allies do limit wartime access in the future, will it stop the United States from fighting both wise and unwise wars? Grievances for Keir Starmer's government in the UK, especially its approach to national security and energy; for Tulsi Gabbards' decision to release information about supposed U.S. biolabs on her way out the door, and to all of those saying that stopping a war requires a vote of Congress, but starting one doesn't. Attas to Americans (and Canadians and Mexicans) for welcoming the world for the World Cup games; a lukewarm atta to the New York Knicks for winning the NBA Championship; and an enthusiastic atta to Melanie's niece Miriam for making the swim team!   Show Links:   Rachel Metz, "Iran and the Hidden Cost of Wartime Access," Foreign Affairs. Austin Carson, Rachel Metz, and Paul Poast, "Allies and Access: Implications of an American Turn Away from Alliances," International Organization. 2025;79(S1):S103-S116. doi:10.1017/S0020818325100982. Tongfi Kim, "Why Alliances Entangle But Seldom Entrap States,' Security Studies, 2011; 20(3), 350–377. Jared Isaacman, X post, June 9, 2026. John Bew, What's Britain's Place in the Post-Iran World Order?", The Spectator (US), April 16, 2026. Ivana Kottasova, Two Top UK Defense Officials Resign over Military Spending in Fresh Blow to Keir Starmer, CNN, June 12, 2026.  Zack Cooper (editor), "Extended Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific," National Bureau of Asian Research, June 15, 2026. Mira Rapp-Hooper and Zack Cooper, "Washington's Asian Allies Need a Backup Plan," Foreign Policy, June 11, 2026.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a chat about how Mexico is handling the drug cartels, which continue to perpetrate terrible violence and facilitate massive corruption in the country. Can President Claudia Sheinbaum enact an anti-cartel strategy that will reduce the violence? Are institutions in government and the private sector too corrupt for any strategy to succeed? Will Trump, whose patience with Sheinbaum is limited, order military strikes on cartel targets in Mexico? And does she have any leverage to prevent this?   Chris recognizes the life and legacy of Brian Finlay, Stimson's President and CEO, who passed away on June 3rd.   Show Links:   David Mora, Why Mexico's Cartels are So Hard to Defeat: The Real Test of Sheinbaum's Security Strategy, Foreign Affairs, May 20, 2026.   Jim Geraghty, In the Information War, the US Unilaterally Disarmed, Washington Post, May 26, 2026. Gavin Bade, Santiago Perez, and Christopher Otts, The Trump Administration Wants Autos Under USMCA to Be at Least 50% Made in America, Wall Street Journal, May 29, 2026. Fact Sheet: AUKUS Pillar II Signature Project, Department of Defense, May 30, 2026. Maria Abi-Habib and Eric Schmitt, Guatemala Agrees to Joint Strikes with U.S. Against Drug Gangs, New York Times, May 28, 2026. "Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy | The Lionel Gelber Prize". Declan Walsh, "Inside the Ebola Epicenter, the Virus Rages With Little to Stop It," New York Times, May 30, 2026. Michael Cohen and Will A. Smith, "Is the Iran War Worth It?" May 29, 2026. "Remarks by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth at the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore (As Delivered)," U.S. Department of War, May 30, 2026. Stimson Remembers the Life and Legacy of President and CEO Brian Finlay • Stimson Center

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Wess Mitchell's proposed U.S. strategy of consolidation. They discuss whether this strategy would finally realign America's objectives with its resources. They also question the Trump administration's ability or willingness to execute such an approach. Chris commends Tom Stevenson's essay on the war in Afghanistan, Melanie questions the lack of American ambassadors worldwide, and Zack expresses frustration with the meager results of the Trump-Xi meeting. Show Links: Robbie Gramer, Trump Still Hasn't Appointed More Than 100 Ambassadors, Some to Key Allies, Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2026. Chao Deng, This Arkansas Town is Humming with the Sound of Missile Making, Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2026. Zachary Federico, Utah Breaks Down Occupational Licensing Barriers for Veterans, ALEC, May 14, 2026. Sean Hannity interview with Donald Trump, May 14, 2026.  Wolfgang Munchau, Boots on the Ground is Trump's Best Option, UnHerd, May 11, 2026 Tom Stevenson, We Were Doing Well When I Left, London Review of Books, May 2026. Gil Barndollar and Jason Dempsey, Don't Believe the Generals, The Atlantic, September 2, 2022. A. Wess Mitchell, "A Grand Strategy of Consolidation," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2026. Sal Mercogliano, "The Great Battleship Debate," What's Going on With Shipping channel, YouTube, May 12, 2026.

Do we live in a world governed only by force, one in which the United States' military and economic power alone will advance U.S. interests? Or are the Trump administration's efforts to intimidate even U.S. allies and partners bound to generate resistance? And what will be the consequences for Americans if Trump's predatory behavior fails? Grievances for Charles Lieber, a former Harvard scientist now building China's i-BRAIN lab, for Beijing's efforts to block U.S. economic sanctions, and to the U.S. State Department for refusing to recognize foreign service officers killed in the service of the country. Attas to Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy for declining to bail out Spirit Airlines, for King Charles for his flawless visit to the United States, and to those members of Congress finally standing up to Trump's claim that he can wage war wherever he wants, for as long as he wants.   Show Links:   Stephen Walt, "The Predatory Hegemon" Foreign Affairs, March/April 2026. Elissa Miolene, "Exiled from State, America's foreign service holds its own memorial," Devex, May 4, 2026. "China's Commerce Ministry blocks US sanctions against five refineries," Reuters, May 2, 2026. "Sean Duffy stands up for taxpayers," Washington Post, May 3, 2026. Alex Bristow, "James Curran is Wrong about Japan's Realist PM and China," Sidney Morning Herald, May 3, 2026. David Kirton, "Convicted Former Harvard Scientist Rebuilds Brain Computer Lab in China," Reuters, April 30, 2026.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a discussion about whether the United Nations can and should continue in its current form. Has it outlived its original purposes? Does it serve the interests of the United States and the world? Should the United States continue to reduce its presence at the UN, or should it work to make the international body more relevant and effective? What should be the focus of the Secretary-General who takes the helm in 2027?   Chris is appalled at the unserious leadership at the top of the FBI, Zack has a shoutout for Anthropic, which is working with the US government, financial institutions, and other major entities to understand their vulnerabilities to increasingly sophisticated AI, and Melanie objects to the obvious and growing corruption in Washington.    *The Net Assessment Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Show Links:   Jeremy Lott, "The president and the pope: Trump tangles with an American pontiff," Washington Examiner, April 17, 2026. Sarah Fitzpatrict, "The FBI Director Is MIA," The Atlantic, April 17, 2026. Christopher Preble and Lucas Ruiz, "Why Strategic Superiority (Still) Doesn't Matter: Nuclear Crises and the Failure of Theory," April 16, 2026. "Untangling the Web of US Alliances," Stimson Center, In-Person and Online Event, May 5, 2026. Peter Caddick-Adams, Can the United Nations Survive?", Engelsberg Ideas, April 15, 2026. Impact Exchange: Reimagining Economies Through Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, February 24, 2026. Volodymyr Zelensky, X post, April 19, 2026. Saikrishna Prakash, The Presidential Pardon: The Short Clause with a Long, Troubled History.