Commercial Real Estate Recovery: Where Are We in the Cycle? | Mike Acton, AEW

Commercial real estate values fell 20% without a recession, a first in US history. Michael Bull, CCIM and AEW's Mike Acton explain what comes next. Mike Acton, CFA, Head of Research & Strategy, North America at AEW Capital Management, has studied real estate cycles at AEW since 1990. He explains why the US is at the very beginning of the next up cycle in property values, why returns over the next year will come almost entirely from income, and why scarce new construction could give this recovery a longer runway: lower IRRs, but higher equity multiples over the hold. The conversation covers commercial real estate transaction volume returning to a 2018 and 2019 pace, how oil prices and a 10-year Treasury near 5% shape the interest rate outlook, reshoring and foreign capital flowing into US property, and why rising stock values are pushing more institutional dollars into real estate allocations. Mike also walks through the sectors AEW likes most. Senior housing leads the list as the first baby boomers turn 80, and retail is recovering after more than 10 years with almost no new construction. He also explains why AEW is waiting on data centers, and what the late 1990s teach investors about holding real estate through a technology boom. In this episode: 00:00 Where Commercial Real Estate Stands in the Cycle 01:16 Values Fell 20% Without a Recession: A First in US History 03:01 Returns Ahead Come From Income, Not Appreciation 04:00 The Buying Window: Lower IRR, Higher Multiple 05:40 Transaction Volume Back to a 2019 Pace 06:45 Oil Prices, Inflation, and a 5% 10-Year Treasury 08:12 Reshoring, Foreign Capital, and US Property 10:20 Institutional Allocations: Same Percentage, More Dollars 11:12 Core vs. Opportunistic: Capital Returns to Core 12:04 Senior Housing: Baby Boomers Turning 80 15:08 Retail's Recovery After a Decade of No New Supply 16:09 Office, CapEx, and Old-Fashioned Real Estate Skill 17:39 Final Takeaway: What the Dot-Com Era Teaches Investors 19:25 Data Centers and the Obsolescence Risk Connect with Mike Acton: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-acton-38b26765/ AEW Capital Management Website: https://www.aew.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RealEstateInvesting #CREForecast #SeniorHousing #RetailRealEstate #DataCenters #InterestRates #InstitutionalInvesting #AEW #MichaelBull #CREShow

Holiday retail sales are forecast to grow 4.3% to 4.9% while retail space stays scarce. ICSC CEO Tom McGee joins Michael Bull, CCIM to explain why.   Retail sales have more than doubled since the global financial crisis, yet very little new retail space has been built. The result is historically high occupancy across regional malls, open-air centers, and standalone retail, with retailers competing for well-positioned space. Tom breaks down ICSC's fourth quarter forecast of $1.7 trillion in retail sales, why the top 10% of earners account for 50% of all consumer spending, and why the other 90% are watching prices closely.   The conversation covers the formats with the most momentum (grocery-anchored and suburban open-air centers), what happens to dark drugstores, and findings from ICSC's Shopping in the Age of AI report with McKinsey on convenience-oriented and discovery-oriented stores. Tom explains why ICSC events are built for dealmaking, including 4,000 participants at ICSC+PROPTECH in Las Vegas, and Michael shares how an AI-drafted markup of a listing agreement nearly derailed an $11 million listing.   In this episode: 00:00  Retail Outlook: Gas Prices, Tariffs, and Inflation 01:10  Retail Sales Growth and a Strong Job Market 03:30  Holiday Forecast: $1.7 Trillion, 4.3% to 4.9% Growth 05:18  Top 10% of Earners Drive 50% of Consumer Spending 06:20  Stock Market, Home Equity, and the Wealth Effect 06:59  Gas Prices and Discretionary Spending 07:50  Shopping in the Age of AI: Convenience vs. Discovery Stores 10:53  ICSC Southeast: Dealmaking in Atlanta 12:46  ICSC Las Vegas and 4,000 at ICSC+PROPTECH 14:32  Who's Expanding: Discount, Grocery-Anchored, Open-Air 16:20  Dark Drugstores: Why Vacant Retail Gets Snapped Up 18:10  Retail Tips: Merchandising, Pricing, Customer Service 20:09  Chick-fil-A Outparcels and Retail as Social Space 21:49  AI-Lawyered Leases and Listing Agreements 24:12  Final Takeaway: A Resilient Consumer and Warning Signs   Connect with Tom McGee: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tommcgee2/ ICSC Website: https://www.icsc.com   Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/   For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.   America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.   TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com   Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com   Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com   Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/   #RetailRealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #ICSC #ShoppingCenters #HolidaySales #RetailSales #ConsumerSpending #RetailAI #MichaelBull #CREShow

Where are foreign investors putting capital in US commercial real estate? Michael Bull, CCIM asks Gunnar Branson, CEO of AFIRE, what the mid-year Pulse shows.   Gunnar Branson leads AFIRE, the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate, whose members are institutional investors from 24 countries. Twice a year AFIRE surveys them on their US allocations, risks, and opportunities. This year's headline is a turn toward infrastructure and energy. Data centers are pulling institutional capital, and for the first time a majority of respondents say energy availability and cost shape where they invest.   On property types, industrial still tops the wish list and multifamily follows, but office has climbed to number 3. Gunnar explains why New York has almost no Class A office space available, why retail's comeback is the model for office, and why mixed-use, 24/7 neighborhoods are winning tenants. Michael shares why he calls office the buy of the decade, with a 200,000 square foot tower coming to market at about $64 a foot.   The conversation also covers the US economy (90% of respondents see politics as a negative force on investment, while 94% say this is a time for long-term investing), Japanese capital and the weak yen, why nearly half of the world's institutional quality real estate sits in the US, the housing affordability gap, build-to-rent and manufactured housing, household financial stress, tariffs and immigrant labor, and why location still matters.   In this episode: 00:00  Introduction: how foreign investors view the US 01:25  The AFIRE Pulse: institutional investors from 24 countries 02:22  From real estate to infrastructure: data centers lead 04:56  Generational capital and the long-term US view 05:28  Europe and the Middle East: a pause in new investment 06:11  Data centers: top opportunity and top risk 07:17  Office climbs to #3 behind industrial and multifamily 09:15  Office as the buy of the decade: lessons from retail 11:37  Buying office at $64 a foot: the low-basis play 12:27  US economy: strong growth, 90% see politics as a negative 14:52  Japanese capital, the yen, and long-term thinking 15:42  Why the US wins: nearly half of institutional real estate 18:09  The housing shortage and affordability 19:07  Build-to-rent, single family rentals, and manufactured housing 24:02  Household stress: 19% now at the breaking point 25:19  The biggest headline: energy infrastructure 27:44  Beyond the capital stack: new players in real estate 29:07  Tariffs, reshoring, and immigrant labor costs 31:48  Visas, universities, and where capital follows 33:35  Location, location: why investors favor vibrant cities   Connect with Gunnar Branson: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gunnarbranson/ AFIRE Website: https://www.afire.org/   Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/   For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.   America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.   TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com   Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com   Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com   Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/   #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #ForeignInvestment #RealEstateInvesting #AFIRE #DataCenters #Infrastructure #OfficeMarket #Multifamily #IndustrialRealEstate #AffordableHousing #CREShow

Commercial real estate has moved from downturn to recovery, but the gains are uneven. Rich Hill of Principal Asset Management joins Michael Bull, CCIM to map where the opportunities are. Rich Hill is Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Real Estate Research and Strategy at Principal Asset Management, which manages roughly $110 billion of commercial real estate globally. He explains why US total returns have risen for about 8 consecutive quarters, why real estate cycles average around 16 years, and why net operating income growth will drive returns in a cycle with little room left for cap rate compression. Beneath muted headline returns, the top quartile of properties is performing well while the bottom quartile has failed to launch. Rich walks through the US housing mismatch and a selective view on Class A apartments, build-to-rent under the ROAD to Housing Act, senior housing demand from the growing 70+ population, and why power centers and unanchored retail look attractive. On office, 90% of vacancy sits in 30% of buildings and 40% of buildings have no vacancy at all. With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, Rich and Michael discuss why properties trading below replacement cost are holding back new supply, and why commercial real estate worked for decades with Treasury rates at 4% to 5%. In this episode: 00:00  Where Are the Commercial Real Estate Opportunities? 01:32  CRE Recovery: 8 Quarters of Rising Returns and 16-Year Cycles 03:48  Muted Headline Returns and the Dispersion Underneath 06:28  Selective Conviction and the US Housing Mismatch 08:35  Class A Apartments, Class B Value-Add, and AI Job Risk 09:55  Build-to-Rent and the ROAD to Housing Act 10:59  Senior Housing: The Growing 70+ Population 12:01  Retail Real Estate: Power Centers and Unanchored Centers 14:13  AI, White-Collar Jobs, and the Office Market 16:40  Below Replacement Cost: Why New Supply Has Stalled 18:37  Investing With a 5% 10-Year Treasury 19:46  Back to Normal: CRE at 4% to 5% Treasury Rates Connect with Rich Hill: https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-hill-2156387/ Principal Asset Management Website: https://www.principalam.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #CREOutlook #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #BuildToRent #RetailRealEstate #OfficeMarket #SeniorHousing #InterestRates #PrincipalAssetManagement #CREShow

Retail sales are running 5.3% ahead of last year, beating NRF's 4.4% forecast. Michael Bull, CCIM asks NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews why shoppers keep spending. Consumer sentiment sits near the lowest readings on record, yet shoppers keep buying. Mark Mathews, Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research at the National Retail Federation, explains why most of the 2026 growth is real rather than inflation: goods inflation is running about 0.8%, and a dollar spent on a durable good 30 years ago costs about 79 cents today. Mark breaks down the K-shaped consumer (the top 20% of households drive about 60% of spending), how $60 billion in extra tax refunds offset higher gas prices through August, and why retailers who win on price are winning now. He also covers diesel and tariff costs, blended e-commerce and physical stores, AI shopping assistants, TikTok and influencer-driven sales, and his outlook for holiday spending. For owners and investors in retail real estate and net lease retail, this is a clear read on the consumer behind the rent checks. In this episode: 00:00 Retail Real Estate: Are Retailers Really Doing Well? 01:41 Retail Sales Up 5.3% vs. NRF's 4.4% Forecast 03:44 Who's Winning: Retailers That Own Low Prices 04:55 Dollar Stores and the K-Shaped Consumer 06:03 Gas Prices, the Top 20% and $60B in Tax Refunds 08:30 Consumer Confidence Near Record Lows 10:07 Diesel, Tariffs and Who Absorbs the Cost 11:30 E-Commerce, Blended Commerce and Physical Stores 13:07 Why Shoppers Still Want to Touch the Product 13:51 AI in Retail: Big Investment, Unclear Payoff 15:51 Showing Up in AI Search Results 18:11 Retail Sales Outlook and Holiday Spending 19:28 Advice for Retailers and Retail Property Owners 21:14 TikTok, Influencers and the Customer as Emperor 22:24 Wrap-Up Connect with Mark Mathews: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-mathews-cbe-4522913/ National Retail Federation Website: https://nrf.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #RetailRealEstate #RetailSales #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #NRF #ConsumerSpending #NetLease #RetailForecast #Economy #AIinRetail #BullRealty #CREShow

Data center demand is booming, but the buildings are going obsolete faster than they can fill up. Michael Bull, CCIM digs into the numbers with Ermengarde Jabir, PhD, Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics. The US data center market is now 31 to 32 gigawatts of power, and power, not square footage, is the right way to size it. Ermengarde explains why a 50,000 square foot data center built 10 or 15 years ago might now need only 25,000 square feet to house the newer racks and servers, leaving half the building empty. She walks through the sector's cap rates, a competitive 4% to mid-5% range, the shrinking risk premium as the 10-year Treasury pushes past 4.6%, and who is actually building these now, from traditional developers to the big tech owner-operators alongside long-time REITs Digital Realty and Equinix. The conversation covers the data center types from co-location to hyperscale, why the shell is simple like an industrial warehouse but the interior build-out and cooling are where the cost lives, office-to-data-center conversions and the load-bearing floor test that makes or breaks them, the moratoriums and lost-tax-base math driving local approvals, and what the AI build-out really means for jobs. Ermengarde's bottom line on employment: not more or fewer jobs, but different jobs. In this episode: 00:00  Intro: The Data Center Debate 01:23  How Big Is the Market? 31 to 32 Gigawatts of Power 02:18  Why Power Beats Square Footage, and the Obsolescence Problem 03:53  Data Center Types, From Co-Location to Hyperscale 04:47  Who Is Building Now: Developers, REITs, and Big Tech 07:54  Hyperscale Build-Out and the Shift to Liquid Cooling 10:28  Data Center Cap Rates: 4% to Mid-5% and the Risk Premium 12:11  Office-to-Data-Center Conversions and the Load-Bearing Test 14:08  Moratoriums, Zoning, and the Local Tax-Base Math 16:03  The Future: Why Exponential Growth Cannot Last 19:11  Data Centers and Jobs: Construction vs Permanent 22:43  AI and Employment: The 4.1% Headline and What It Hides 25:35  Office-Using Employment: Peak or Another Cycle? 27:03  Final Takeaway: Different Jobs, Not Fewer Connect with Ermengarde Jabir, PhD: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ermengarde-jabir-phd-3114829a/ Moody's Analytics Website: https://www.moodysanalytics.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #DataCenters #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #DataCenterRealEstate #AI #CapRates #Hyperscale #AdaptiveReuse #RealEstateInvesting #CREForecast #MoodysAnalytics #MichaelBull

Senior housing is posting record absorption while new supply sits at Great Financial Crisis lows. Michael Bull, CCIM talks with Arick Morton, Chief Executive Officer of NIC MAP, about what that gap means for owners, investors, and developers. Arick walks through the numbers behind the demand story: median occupancy back near 93%, more than 30 of the top 100 metros running a 95% median, transaction volume touching all-time highs, and price per unit up meaningfully. Cap rates have compressed into the 6 handles for stabilized Class A and B product in good markets, with 5 handles trading in some cases. The supply side is the harder half. Labor costs climbed 30% to 35% between 2021 and early 2023, and because buildings sat around 80% full, almost none of it was passed through to rents. Occupancy has healed, margins have not fully caught up, and the unlevered yield on cost math still comes up short in many markets. Arick lays out what has to change before a sustained construction cycle starts. Then the opportunity set. The 80 plus population grows roughly 35% by 2030 and 65% to 70% by 2035, which means the industry needs to deliver about twice as many units as it has ever built, every year, for the next 20 years. Arick makes the case that expanding existing communities is the fastest pressure relief valve available, since roughly two thirds of the stock is 20 to 25 years old and much of it sits on land bought before land got expensive. He also covers third party management, regional density in portfolio construction, and where AI actually helps an operator. In this episode: 00:00  Senior Housing Market Outlook 2026 01:46  Meet Arick Morton, CEO of NIC MAP 02:14  Record Absorption and Capital Rotating In 03:45  Why Passive Capital Needs an Operating Partner 04:24  New Supply at Great Financial Crisis Lows 06:33  Labor Costs Up 30% to 35% and the Margin Gap 07:57  Occupancy: 93% Median, 95% in 30 Plus Metros 08:42  Active Adult, IL, Assisted Living, Memory Care, Skilled Nursing 10:45  Cap Rates: 6 Handles, and 5s for the Best Product 12:17  Transaction Volume at All-Time Highs and the NCREIF Index 13:46  Owner or Operator: The Third Party Management Question 15:42  Twice as Many Units, Every Year, for 20 Years 17:56  The Expansion Play: Building on Land You Already Own 20:02  AI, Data, and Regional Density for Operators 22:13  Where to Find NIC MAP Research 23:32  Final Takeaway Connect with Arick Morton: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arickmorton/ NIC MAP Website: https://www.nicmap.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Southeast U.S. commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #SeniorHousing #SeniorHousingInvestment #CommercialRealEstate #AssistedLiving #MemoryCare #IndependentLiving #SkilledNursing #CapRates #CREInvesting #RealEstateInvesting #NICMAP #CREShow

Industrial real estate demand is rebounding in 2026 after the slowest first half in eight years. Michael Bull, CCIM gets the latest from Marc Selvitelli, President and CEO of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (CREDA, the organization known for decades as NAIOP). Only 75 million square feet of industrial space delivered in the first half of 2026, the lowest in eight years. Yet 595 million square feet are now under construction, up 5% year over year, with vacancy essentially flat at 6.9%. Marc explains why the sector is normalizing toward historical norms instead of repeating the post-pandemic rocket ship, and why consumer spending and e-commerce still support the trend. One caveat sits under the numbers: the forecast assumes the conflict with Iran winds down in the second half of the year. The conversation also covers the CREDA sentiment survey (slow, steady, and quietly positive as capital returns), the return to office at 3.4 days a week, why power availability is now the single biggest constraint on new development, and the explosion in data centers, from 2% of members three years ago to 12% today. Marc and Michael dig into industrial outdoor storage (under 2% vacancy nationwide), medical office, office-to-residential conversions, senior housing technology, and what AI really does and does not change for brokerage. In this episode: 00:00  Intro: NAIOP Is Now CREDA 00:56  Why NAIOP Rebranded to the CRE Development Association 02:29  Industrial Demand Forecast: Slowest First Half in 8 Years 04:22  The Iran Conflict Assumption in the Forecast 05:10  595M SF Under Construction as Development Turns Up 06:19  Industrial Investment and Capital Coming Back 07:21  CREDA Sentiment Survey: Slow and Steady, Trending Positive 08:09  Multifamily Uncertainty and Office Finding Its Footing 09:44  Return to Office: 3.4 Days a Week, AI Firms at Five 10:34  Construction, Labor, and Power: The Biggest Constraint 12:12  Data Centers: From 2% of Members to 12% 14:39  Industrial Outdoor Storage: Under 2% Vacancy Nationwide 15:42  End-of-Year Opportunities: IOS, Medical Office, Conversions 17:23  A 185,000 SF Tower at 30%: The Office Condo Play 18:45  Senior Housing Demand and the Technology Gap 21:07  AI, Brokerage, and Why Relationships Still Win 25:24  Final Takeaway Connect with Marc Selvitelli, CAE: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marc-selvitelli-cae-7b6a991 CREDA Website: https://www.credaglobal.org Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #IndustrialRealEstate #NAIOP #CREDA #DataCenters #IndustrialOutdoorStorage #OfficeMarket #CREForecast #RealEstateInvesting #MedicalOffice #MichaelBull

Houston delivered 6,400 apartment units in Q1 while Class B absorption came in at negative 750. Michael Bull, CCIM and developer Victor Menasce break down what that means for apartment investors and developers in 2026. Victor Menasce, Senior Partner at Y Street Capital, has developed and owned property through multiple recessions and cycles. He explains why the traditional Class B value-add playbook of adding washers and dryers and pushing rents $50 a month is running out of room, how Class A concessions are pulling renters up and out of older product, and why lease surfing stretches stabilization timelines even in brand new buildings. The conversation also covers entitlement risk and the case for building by right, how opposition groups now organize on social media within weeks and use AI to research objections, the Austin multifamily oversupply and how long that absorption may take, and where the supply and demand mismatch actually sits today. Victor also makes the case for active adult housing as an underbuilt segment between market rate apartments and independent living, with resident tenure averaging around nine years. Plus construction cost trends, factory built delivery, and an insurance renewal that went from $58,000 to a $350,000 quote in a single year. In this episode: 00:00  Development Through CRE Cycles With Victor Menasce 01:28  Your Investment Thesis Ages Before the Project Delivers 02:13  Three Legs of the Stool: Capital Cost, Rents, Construction 02:47  Entitlement Risk and the Case for Building By Right 04:22  Local Counsel, Relationships, and Approval Timelines 05:04  Organized Opposition: Social Media Groups and AI Research 07:00  New Supply: Austin Oversupply and Rent Concessions 08:34  Lease Surfing and When Apartments Become a Commodity 11:19  Active Adult: The Gap Below Independent Living 12:11  Office Conversions and Mixed Use Done Right 13:35  Active Adult Demographics: 70% Singles, 9 Year Tenure 15:00  Construction Costs 2026: Labor, Trades, Supply Chain 16:03  Factory Built Delivery and Hambro Joist Time Savings 16:52  Insurance Shock: $58K Premium to a $350K Renewal Quote 18:40  Houston Q1 Data: Class B Squeezed From Above and Below 20:16  Closing Thoughts and Sponsors Connect with Victor Menasce: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce/ Y Street Capital Website: https://ystreetcapital.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #Multifamily #ApartmentInvesting #RealEstateDevelopment #ValueAdd #ActiveAdult #HousingSupply #ConstructionCosts #RealEstateInvesting #CRE #Houston #CREshow

Six years into the expansion, the commercial real estate cycle still looks early. Michael Bull, CCIM covers 2026 rates, supply, and office with BGO Chief Economist Ryan Severino, CFA. Ryan Severino, CFA, Chief Economist and Head of Research for the U.S. at BGO, explains why a cycle that is six years old still behaves like an early to mid cycle expansion. Debt sits at moderate levels, the labor market has room to run, and leverage has stayed disciplined. He sees runway left in the economy and in commercial real estate. The conversation covers where inflation and interest rates go from here, why the 10-year Treasury has trouble moving far off 4% on fundamentals alone, and how trade policy and the conflict in Iran are adding roughly 30 to 60 basis points to the long end of the curve. Severino also makes the case that today's rates only feel high because most people working in this industry have spent their entire careers in a market where the 10-year stayed below 5% for a quarter century. On the property side: the construction pipeline is the most benign on record relative to existing inventory, which means owners no longer need an outsized jump in demand to compress vacancy and restart rent growth. Severino explains why he is more constructive on office than most of the industry, drawing a direct comparison to how wrong the popular narrative on retail was for 15 years. Michael Bull adds a live example, a 17-story tower coming to market at $64 per square foot, below the cost of building out the space. The episode closes on what Severino calls a recovery out of order. In a normal cycle, capital markets recover first and space market fundamentals lag. This time fundamentals are recovering while elevated long-term rates hold the capital markets back. His view on the next 12 to 24 months: higher transaction volume, more attractive pricing, and a real estate return profile that compares well against a richly valued stock market. In this episode: 00:00  Where Are We in the CRE Cycle? What Inning Are We In? 01:08  Six Years In and Still Early Cycle: The Rain Delay Economy 03:17  Pandemic, Inflation, Trade War, Real War: A Fits and Starts Cycle 04:39  Inflation Resurgent: A Speed Bump, Not a Roadblock 06:37  The 10-Year Treasury: Why It Cannot Move Far Off 4% 07:58  A Quarter Century Below 5%: Today's Rates Are About Average 09:26  Michael's 17% Loan and Making Money at Higher Rates 10:28  Oil Prices and Iran: Why the U.S. Economy Shrugs Now 12:46  AI and Data Centers: Galactic Capital and Political Backlash 15:02  Record Low Construction: Why Supply No Longer Drives the Cycle 17:57  Office: The Contrarian Case and the Retail Playbook 20:07  A 17-Story Tower at $64 per Foot 20:42  Recovery Out of Order: Fundamentals First, Capital Markets Lagging 24:47  Relative Value: Real Estate Against a Richly Priced Stock Market 25:57  Final Takeaway: You Do Not Pay Today's Rate Forever Connect with Ryan Severino: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-severino-cfa-4409022/ BGO Website: https://www.bgo.com Connect with Michael Bull & The Show: Michael Bull, CCIM Bull Realty, Inc https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/ For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com. America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors. TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/ #CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RealEstateInvesting #CommercialRealEstateForecast #InterestRates #OfficeMarket #DataCenters #CapRates #RealEstateCycle #CREInvesting #Treasury #MichaelBull