The Last Year of War or Peace - Foresight for 2026

Is 2026 the last year of war or the first year of peace in Europe?In this Visegrad Insight online discussion, Monika Sus and Wojciech Przybylski map out the key forecasts for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2026 and beyond: where democratic security is most vulnerable, and what ‘war fatigue’ and hybrid warfare can do to elections and institutions.The conversation weighs plausible 2026 scenarios for the Russia-Ukraine war, including the risks of a ‘pause’ rather than a settlement, and assesses how the United States, Russia and China shape Europe’s security system. It also explores Europe’s readiness for turbulence: defence production, resilience against sabotage and disinformation and the strategic stakes of European Union enlargement, from Ukraine and Moldova to the Western Balkans.This episode is for anyone searching for a sober prognosis of what could happen in 2026, from political dynamics to security risks and economic security choices.Recorded online on 15 January 2026.Watch on YT: https://youtu.be/UwKmeijXz-YListen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6tRPrp0jZWuWqd1UiNkVGv?si=qZHmFrW6T_29apn_Zt6lMgListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/the-last-year-of-war-or-peace-foresight-for-2026/id1515725435?i=1000746025538&l=en-GB

In this Visegrad Insight podcast episode, Wojciech Przybylski speaks with Anna Gielewska of  ⁨@vsquare_project⁩  about a cross-border investigation with Front Story and Context Romania. They discuss alleged undeclared online support linked to Romanian far-right politician George Simion during Karol Nawrocki’s presidential campaign, what can and cannot be proven, and why Poland’s rules on in-kind support look outdated in the platform era. The conversation also touches on the United States National Security Strategy and the European Union debate on a Democracy Shield.This podcast is supported by the 4-year European Commission’s Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values Programme (CERV) framework programme. It is part of our "Foresight on EU Values and Democratic Security" that we have been running in 2023-2025.Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ZTkBEeP9os4Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/make-europe-great-again-and-the-cross-border/id1515725435?i=1000742479611&l=en-GB

Does the European Union have an ‘intelligent’ green strategy that is failing in practice while Hungary pursues a ‘dumb’ one that seems to work?In this episode of the Visegrad Insight Podcast, Wojciech Przybylski speaks with Hungarian journalist Vilmos Weiler about the surge of Chinese and Korean battery investments in Hungary and what this means for European competitiveness, economic security and environmental safety.This podcast is a part of our Europe Future Forum Polish-Hungarian Perspectives project. Through a programme of meetings with experts, political advisers and opinion leaders from both countries, we aim to explore Poland’s and Hungary’s perspectives on the transformations underway in the European Union at the threshold of an age of economic warfare. Supported by the Wacław Felczak Institute for Polish-Hungarian Cooperation.Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0ZVjpVC-rAListen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5rS975XzpvScfteSbUFuaM?si=fA_K_aAVSkytXZmjQ15A4g

Wojciech Przybylski unpacks the new United States national security strategy and its ‘chaotic hypocrisy’ towards Europe, then turns to Hungary to ask what an honest energy transition would really look like.In conversation with Ada Ámon, executive director of the Budapest Climate Agency, this episode explores:– How deeply Hungary is locked into Russian oil, gas and nuclear fuel– Why successive governments chose cheap energy over efficiency and resilience– How Hungarian households have already shown they can cut consumption by twenty to thirty per cent– How EU funds were diverted away from citizens and into government buildings, weakening real climate action– What smarter pricing, better incentives and local innovation could do for Hungary’s energy futureThis podcast is a part of our Europe Future Forum Polish-Hungarian Perspectives project. Through a programme of meetings with experts, political advisers and opinion leaders from both countries, we aim to explore Poland’s and Hungary’s perspectives on the transformations underway in the European Union at the threshold of an age of economic warfare. Supported by the Wacław Felczak Institute for Polish-Hungarian Cooperation.

Why is Ukraine plastered across Hungary’s billboards and campaign ads as if it were on the ballot itself? And what does Viktor Orbán really gain from keeping Volodymyr Zelensky in the minds, hearts and social media algorithms of Hungarians?In this episode of the Visegrad Insight Podcast, Wojciech Przybylski speaks with Viktória Serdült, journalist at HVG in Budapest, about how Ukraine became the central prop of Hungary’s permanent election campaign.Together they discuss:How the ‘pro-war / pro-peace’ propaganda line turned into a full-blown anti-Ukraine campaign in HungaryWhy Zelensky, Ursula von der Leyen and Péter Magyar are glued together on Fidesz billboards as the alleged ‘pro-war’ trioWhat ordinary Hungarians actually think about the war and Ukraine’s EU membership, beyond government messagingThe role of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine and long-term mistrust in shaping public opinionHow agriculture, gas transit and EU funds quietly sit behind the slogans about peace and sovereigntyWhy Russia is barely mentioned in Budapest’s rhetoric about a war that Moscow startedWhat to watch in 2025–2026 as Hungary heads into yet another high-stakes electoral cycle with Ukraine at the centreWatch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/jdmBOuqQgLwListen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6DjmhfAz6U2y4zOqa9zQ5u?si=z-nh1ZYNQj6dtGUp1V3Kbg

In April 2026, Hungarians go to the polls again. The choice is framed as ‘war and peace’ by Viktor Orbán, and ‘corruption and oligarchy’ by Péter Magyar. But is Hungary’s real problem that its oligarchs are not independent tycoons at all, but extensions of the state itself?In this Visegrad Insight videocast, Wojciech Przybylski speaks with two insiders of Hungary’s economic and political transformation: former central banker and regional investment banker András Simor and former economy minister and governor of the National Bank of Hungary Péter Ákos Bod.This podcast joins the series of conversations within the pilot Polish-Hungarian bilateral framework at the Europe Future Format by the Res Publica Foundation.Learn more about this format: https://europefuture.forum/europe-future-forum-polish-hungarian-perspectives/.Explore Europe Future Forum: https://europefuture.forumWatch the full episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/r-l242SBIbMListen on Apple Podcast: ⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/pl/podcast/visegrad-insight-podcast/id1515725435Listen on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/7aA9iqd8rUxFMYMemjikuw?si=68781dd9de824b6b

In this episode of the Visegrad Insight Podcast, Tomasz Kasprowicz speaks with Andreas Treichl, chair of Erste Foundation and former chief executive of Erste Group Bank, about the future of banking, capital markets and pensions in Central and Eastern Europe.Learn more about Europe Future Forum: https://europefuture.forum/⁠📌 What is inside this episode:Why Central and Eastern Europe was unfairly branded the 'wild East' after the financial crisisHow unfinished banking union, weak capital markets and poor pension design hold the EU backWhy funded second-pillar pensions are key to Europe’s green transition and ageing societiesWhat better financial literacy, housing policy and cross-border cooperation could do for the regionWatch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/xiMxQmwjjJQListen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/194cGi2JMHdbNhQePx1pNz?si=99sQ1o7IT9WEJrKLnBvEKAListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/nationalism-in-banking-is-simply-stupid-can-central/id1515725435?i=1000737250724&l=en-GB

Finland’s Under-Secretary of State for International Trade, Jarno Syrjälä, joins Tomasz Kasprowicz, Vice-President of the Res Publica Foundation, to unpack how smaller European states navigate a harsher economic security environment. We discuss European Union trade unity under stress, the US–China rivalry, China’s rare earth leverage and why dialogue and flexible processes still matter. We also cover Finland’s shift after joining NATO in 2023, economic security, resilient supply chains and the balance between openness and strategic foresight. Watch on YouTube:⁠⁠⁠ https://youtu.be/4ts8BzOjNuYListen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2iO97FXH3JKgebrJTQadx9?si=-aD7NCjjTeKVtXXPmxVQIgListen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/europes-trade-storm-with-jarno-syrj%C3%A4l%C3%A4/id1515725435?i=1000736111238&l=en-GB

Economic security alert. Wolfgang Münchau, co-founder and director of Eurointelligence, and author of ‘Kaput: The End of the German Miracle’ book, pulls no punches in an exclusive interview with Wojciech Przybylski – Germany’s mercantilist miracle is over, China now out-competes on quality, and Europe’s economic security hangs by fragile threads. From rare-earth chokeholds to failing diversification, Münchau and Przybylski expose why grand EU programmes mask a deeper inability to secure critical supply chains and strategic autonomy – Brussels and Berlin still opt for slogans over strategy. So what Central Europe must do to escape the fallout? --Watch on YouTube:⁠⁠⁠ https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL52PCgrDNDoQqela9O-ZadsD35-GjRvXQ&si=qhYQFSHAHuJKZ10m⁠⁠⁠Listen on Apple Podcast: ⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/pl/podcast/visegrad-insight-podcast/id1515725435⁠⁠⁠Listen on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/7aA9iqd8rUxFMYMemjikuw?si=68781dd9de824b6b

What do 94% of Poles dream about in 2025 – and how are their fears shaping the future?Next to the weekly democratic and economic security outlook, in this episode of the Visegrad Insight Podcast, recorded live at the Freedom Games in Łódź, Maia Mazurkiewicz – CEO of the PZU Foundation, part of the biggest Polish insurance company – unveils the first-ever comprehensive report on the dreams of Poles: “Czy Polacy potrafią marzyć?” (Do Poles Know How to Dream?), commissioned by her organisation.Despite war on the border, economic pressure, and global uncertainty, 93.5% of Poles still dream – and this groundbreaking study reveals what they dream about, why, and how dreams build resilience in turbulent times.English Version Coming November 2025 – Download the Polish report now:👉 https://fundacja.pzu.pl/czy-polacy-po...Follow us and subscribe on https://visegradinsight.eu for the English launch and regional comparisons.Watch on YouTube:⁠⁠⁠ https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL52PCgrDNDoQqela9O-ZadsD35-GjRvXQ&si=qhYQFSHAHuJKZ10m⁠⁠⁠Listen on Apple Podcasts: ⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/pl/podcast/visegrad-insight-podcast/id1515725435⁠⁠⁠Listen on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/7aA9iqd8rUxFMYMemjikuw?si=68781dd9de824b6b