Shutdown Fold 'Em, with Nate Silver

On this week’s show: is $140,000 a year the new poverty line? Is $400,000 a moderate income? Is the softening in car buying an indication that middle-income Americans have grown more financially pressed in recent months?Plus: we revisit the “you must refuse illegal orders” video in light of news reports about an awfully illegal-sounding “double tap” strike on a suspected drug boat off Venezuela, and we discuss the Trump administration’s crackdown on Afghan migrants. We also talk about casinos in New York City and two environments that bring Americans together: the craps table, and the Benihana table. Finally: Josh angers people on the internet. Get full access to Central Air at www.centralairpodcast.com/subscribe

In the spirit of Thanksgiving gatherings, Megan brought her husband to visit with us this week. Peter Suderman joins us to discuss holiday cocktails, an overly sympathetic story about an illegal immigrant who stole a man’s identity so he could work, the controversy over the “illegal orders” video from Democratic members of Congress (with reference to a useful op-ed by David French), and your dad/Sean Duffy’s campaign to get air travelers to behave themselves. About those holiday cocktails: go to centralairpodcast.com for a special Christmas-y mai tai recipe Peter helped Josh develop, and other links to holiday libations (and you can sign up for our newsletter there too). Get full access to Central Air at www.centralairpodcast.com/subscribe

We finally have word that the Epstein files will be made public, but is that a mistake? Ben and Megan offer their arguments for keeping the secrets secret, and Josh isn't sure about that — what is in there? And doesn't President Trump, who campaigned on releasing the files, deserve whatever happens once that happens?Also this week: the effort to rehabilitate the reputation of price controls (ew), a celebration of the end of the penny, and the TikTok proposition that “the new American dream is to leave.”Sign up for updates from us (and support the show) and www.centralairpodcast.com Get full access to Central Air at www.centralairpodcast.com/subscribe

Josh, Ben, Megan and special guest Nate Silver stress-test alternative ends to the government shutdown. What outcomes were actually available to Democrats? Then: Donald Trump’s poll numbers have materially deteriorated in the last month, and Democrats way outran their polls in elections last week. Are national polls understating Democrats’ national strength?Also in this episode: Nate’s take on the strange debate over whether moderate candidates win more elections, and yet another pro-sports betting scandal. Is gambling undermining sports as a civic institution? And finally: Teen Vogue.Feedback? Questions? Leave a comment at centralairpodcast.com or email us at [email protected]. Get full access to Central Air at www.centralairpodcast.com/subscribe

Josh, Ben and Megan take stock of the lessons for Democrats from Tuesday’s strong election result — and a look at how Republicans failed to speak to voters’ concerns about the cost of living. Also this week: hopes and fears for Zohran Mamdani, the ongoing meltdown at the Heritage Foundation, the ongoing meltdown on Nancy Mace’s Twitter feed over her treatment by TSA and airport staff at the Charleston airport, and a couple of stories about Ben and Josh's less-than-finest hours at the airport.Feedback? Questions? Leave a comment at centralairpodcast.com or email us at [email protected]. Get full access to Central Air at www.centralairpodcast.com/subscribe

This week, we’re Deciding to Win, or at least talking about a new manifesto about how to improve and moderate the Democratic Party’s image. Liam Kerr, one of the report’s authors joins us to talk about it.Also this week: the demolition of the East Wing of the White House and those who are very offended by it (not us), Karine Jean-Pierre’s very weird interview with The New Yorker, some lessons from an election in Argentina, and signs that the president’s trade war is starting to do significant economic damage in at least some parts of the country.Feedback? Questions? Leave a comment at centralairpodcast.com or email us at [email protected]. Get full access to Central Air at www.centralairpodcast.com/subscribe

Matt Yglesias joins Josh, Megan and Ben to discuss immigration: why (and how) the Biden administration bungled the issue so badly and how the Democratic party could start to regain voters' trust on the issue.Also in this episode: the problem of “the algorithm” and how it's really a problem of the audience with its bias toward negativity; Helen Andrews’ essay for Compact, which alleges that key institutions are suffering from an epidemic of “feminization”; the efficacy of the “No Kings” protests; and ...does Italy have too many restaurants?Sign up for updates from Central Air here. Get full access to Central Air at www.centralairpodcast.com/subscribe

This is the first episode of Central Air, a weekly politics podcast from and for the political center. Every other part of the political spectrum has a podcast — so, why not us?Josh Barro, Megan McArdle and Ben Dreyfuss talk about the state of the political center, and the exciting new initiatives that focus on what centrists are for, not just what we think is too extreme. Also this week:The oddly low-key government shutdown, and Democrats’ uphill fight to use the shutdown to get voters to focus on expiring Obamacare subsidies, naked cyclists in Oregon and the political trap of fighting Donald Trump over immigration, the overwrought freakout over Bari Weiss’s installation at CBS, and finally, did it make any sense that the Nakatomi Corporation would have had $640 million worth of bearer bonds in a vault in its new Los Angeles skyscraper?Learn more about Central Air — leave comments, sign up to support the show and receive updates on this new podcast — at www.centralairpodcast.com. Get full access to Central Air at www.centralairpodcast.com/subscribe

Megan, Ben and I react to Donald Trump’s very long address to Congress, the topic he did not want to talk about for very long (inflation), the tariffs he seems to realize people are skeptical about, and his emerging feud with the Premier of Ontario.Megan also discusses what she hated most about the speech (it had to do with RFK Jr.) and Ben identifies an emerging vibe shift — Trump, he says, is no longer riding high upon the vibes like he was a few weeks ago.Sign up to receive updates on our podcast episodes at www.joshbarro.com. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.joshbarro.com/subscribe

I'm back again with another talkative podcast for the political center with Mike Pesca, Ben Dreyfuss and Megan McArdle. This week we’re (unsurprisingly) focused on the ongoing actions of DOGE: the firings and freezes that Megan correctly identifies as less a cost-cutting effort than a strategy to punish and diminish institutions that Republicans see as dominated by the left. We also discuss Elon Musk’s family drama, the imminent return of Andrew Cuomo to New York politics, and the imminent release of the woke Snow White movie.Feedback? Questions? Get in touch at www.joshbarro.com or email [email protected]. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.joshbarro.com/subscribe