Wild Volatility To Send Stocks Down 35-45% This Year | Cem Karsan

When today's guest was on this program last back in December, he predicted the following:1. That a contraction in global liquidity could set the stage for severe market corrections and increased volatility -- check2. That stocks would peak early in 2025, and then experience a 15-20% correction -- check3. That new U.S. trade tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from trading partners, triggering a global trade war -- check, especially in regards to ChinaSo far he's 3 for 3.He also recommended that investors start 2025 defensively, reducing equity exposure, avoiding long-duration bonds, and instead load up on T-bills and gold.Again, this was a winning combination. So who is this prescient forecaster?None other than Felix Zulauf, Founder and CEO, Zulauf Consulting.He usually only does public interviews once a year, but given the recent market turbulence, he has decided to return early to help investors make sense of what's most likely to happen next from here.We're extremely fortunate -- and grateful -- that he has selected Thoughtful Money as one of the few platforms he's granting an interview to this week.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#recession #volatility #bullmarket _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Well, 2025 is here and the US housing market is still in an injured state.Will we start to see some healing this year?Or may things take a turn for the worse?Today we have the good fortune to be joined by Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the excellent reventure app.Nick will walk us through his latest outlook on the US home prices and share a number of charts with us.Spoiler alert: the weakness we've seen grow in previously hot markets like Florida and Texas is now starting to spread to key states like California.What does that bode for the rest of 2025?WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKETS? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

TO BUY GOLD & SILVER, contact Andy's firm at [email protected] metals expert Andy Schectman gives his latest update on the gold & silver markets. He'll also take live audience Q&A.

In his last two appearances on this program, today's gues predicted the market would start to become more volatile.In the fall, he didn't necessarily think that would mean lower stock prices. And he was proven correct.But he did express worry that as we entered 2025, continued higher volatility would start to become a problem for investors.And boy, did he nail things with that prediction."Volatile" is perhaps a gentle word for the major market swings we've seen this year, especially over the past week.To find out where he sees things headed from here, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors & Kai Wealth, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

The swift spike in US Treasury yields has caught some of America's largest hedge funds by surprise, and the severe losses they're suffering are suddenly threatening to spill over into the banking system.These "basis trade" players are highly levered in what they considered very safe, very predictable assets.But bond yields jumped so quickly in response to the Trump tariff tempest, that losses -- highly levered ones -- ensued. Now these firms risk defaulting on the banks that provided the leverage for these trades.Could these create another credit system crisis like 2008?It's possible, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. It by no means inevitable, but the risk is worth watching very closely.As a result, Lance's firm has reduced its equity exposure and pulled in the duration of its bond sleeve.Lance shares all the details in this week's Market Recap.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

When markets are in turmoil as they are now, I often emphasize that the most useful people to interview are asset managers.Because they don't have the luxury of merely having an opinion on the road ahead -- they have to commit capital to their convictions, and be judged upon the results.Today we have the great fortune of having the return appearance of one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van EckJan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes.As we've done the past several quarters now, Jan and I will spend the next hour discussing his latest macro and market outlooks, as well as where he sees the biggest opportunities for investors right now.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Macro & market analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares the latest investing trends that have her attention + takes live Q&A from the viewing audience

Wall Street feels like the world just got turned on its head.The once-bulletproof market rally shifted into reverse, with stocks falling for weeks to oversold levels in the short-term.And just when traders thought a bounce was due, President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs announcements sent the markets plunging by percentages not seen since the worst of the COVID crisis.What is going on and what's most likely to happen from here?Is a recession inevitable at this point?To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined today by David Hay, the up-until-recently Chief Investment Officer & Principal at Evergreen Gavekal.He is just days into his retirement from that role, which means he's free to be a lot more detailed and specific with us in his answers now that he’s not subject to compliance constraints.

I've stated many times on this program that perhaps the easiest macro trend to forecast is that our fiat currencies will continue to lose purchasing power.Today's guest explains why, and what we can do to protect our wealth from this scourge in his new book: The Big Print, What Happened To America and How Sound Money Will Fix ItWe're fortunate to be joined by investor, sound money advocate and - now - author, Lawrence Lepard.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Stocks got slaughtered this week in the wake of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs.The S&P is now off more than -15% from its all-time high earlier this year. The NASDAQ is down over -20% from its ATH and is officially now in a "bear market".So, is this The Big One?Will stocks continue to crash? Perhaps triggering a recession?Or, might there be reasons for a rebound after the dust settles?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss in depth in today's Market Recap. I do my best to ask him the most pressing questions that investors most have on their minds after this scary -- and painful -- week.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com