How To Trade Macro In A War

Alf and Brent reflect on correlations converging to 1 across asset classes, risk management practices in macro deleveraging events, and a game theory approach to how the war could unfold from here.

Alf and Brent discuss the terms of trade shock that the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing. The duo walk through scenarios and probabilities and what framework can be used to trade such a market environment,

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how the appointment of the new Fed Chair could shape the US policy making objective in the bond market. The repercussions on the USD and on the incentive schemes for other large bond market players (e.g. Japanese investors) are not to be underestimated.

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the April-2025-like price action which coincided with the tariff threats. Now that the TACO is here, the real question is: will this episode encourage global pension funds to hedge their gigantic USD exposure?

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent focus the discussion on Japanese short-term and long-term macro: is the MoF ready to intervene? How do you trade these policymaker-induced setups? And in the long-run, will the market keep punishing the JPY and long-end bonds or will the Bank of Japan turn hawkish and surprise the market?

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In the first TMTF episode of 2026, Alf and Brent discuss every single macro asset class under the sun: equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. The duo also talks about the reaction function of the Fed, and a few idiosyncratic ideas.

The Nasdaq has now sold off nearly 10% from the highs, and the pain in momentum assets is even more severe. Alf and Brent discuss whether there are reasons to believe more pain lies ahead, or this is the time to step in and buy the dip.

Alf and Brent discuss the resurgence of the ''run it hot'' trade: Trump floating around new fiscal stimulus and government reopening odds seem to have revived the trade. How to best approach markets going forward? Want to reach out to Alf or Brent? Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg chat, or [email protected] Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg chat, or [email protected]

Alf and Brent discuss the market reaction to the ''deal'' between Trump and Xi: what happens next? The duo also covers the Fed and BoJ decisions, the state of the AI trade, and the Supreme Court hearings on tariffs starting next week.

Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: ⁠TMTF Trade Of The Week Alf and Brent discuss the vicious momentum unwind which took down precious metals and various speculative stock market sectors: what should we expect now? The duo also discusses the upcoming US CPI, and take a step back to assess the big picture macro setup we will likely face for the next 6-9 months.