Fed Hike Next? Oil, Inflation and the Bond Market Warning

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris, Saied and Rajeil break down a market that feels more like a casino than a pricing mechanism, from Trump-driven headline volatility and bond market warning signs to rising oil risks, shaky Fed cut expectations, and why the stock market may be ignoring the bigger problem entirely. They dig into the growing disconnect between equities and Treasuries, the real inflation threat hiding in energy, the possibility that the Fed may be forced to hike instead of cut, and why housing, flipping, and rate-sensitive assets are all flashing caution signs. Along the way, they also go off on AI addiction, productivity pressure, geopolitical chaos, and the uncomfortable reality that in a world run by algorithms, hype, and revisions, staying “plugged in” is no longer optional. This one is part macro breakdown, part group therapy, and fully THS.💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays. Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com🔗 Resources:$3 Trillion SPX Swing in 56 Minutes (The Kobeissi Letter via X)Trump Postpones Iran Strikes 5 Days (WSJ via Apple News)20-Year Treasury Briefly Crosses 5.00% (CNBC)2-Year Note Auction: Bid-to-Cover 2.44 (Seeking Alpha)Fed's Goolsbee: Could See Rate Hikes If Inflation Gets Out of Control (MarketWatch)⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Jerome Powell hit pause, but the economy definitely didn’t. In Episode 327, Chris and Saied break down a Fed that still looks stubbornly out of step with reality, a private credit market flashing louder warning signs than most of Wall Street wants to admit, and fresh housing data that makes the affordability crisis impossible to spin away. From rising default rates and redemption freezes in private credit to oil shock risk, sticky inflation, AI-driven job disruption, and a market still clinging to rate-cut fantasies, this episode is a sharp, funny, and brutally honest look at an economy being propped up by debt, narrative, and hope. It sounds grim because it is grim, but as always, THS is less about panic and more about spotting where the next real opportunity gets created in the wreckage.💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays. Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com🔗 Resources:Fed Chair Powell says that he will serve as Fed Chair until his successor is confirmed (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)Private Credit Default Rate Surpasses 2008 Crisis Peak (@tftc21 via X)The $265 Billion Private Credit Meltdown: How Wall Street's Hottest Investment Craze Turned Into a Panic (Fortune via Yahoo Finance)February 2026 Home Sales: 4.09 Million — Lowest Since 2009 (@nickgerli1 via X)Top 10% of Earners Account for Nearly Half of All U.S. Consumer Spending — Near-Record High (@andrewyang via X)⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

This episode is what happens when the economy shows up looking polished, but the mascara is running. Chris, Saied, and Rajeel break down the slow-motion mess unfolding across jobs, housing, private credit, and the Fed, while war, oil, and rate pressure lurk in the background like a tab nobody wants to pick up. It’s part macro breakdown, part group therapy, part comedy special... and somehow still one of the clearest explanations of why everything feels like it’s breaking at once.💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays. Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com🔗 Resources:Federal judge quashes subpoenas of Fed Chair Jerome Powell (CNN)Nonfarm Payroll Revisions — January 2026 Data (The Kobeissi Letter via X)Lennar Q1 2026 Gross Margins are Lowest Since 2009 (Lance Lambert via X)Housing Affordability Collapse: February Home Sales Hit 17-Year Low (Nick Gerli1 via X)US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Hits Lowest Level Since the 1980s (The Kobeissi Letter via X)Deutsche Bank Highlights Private Credit Risks as Portfolio Grows (Reuters via X)⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Episode 325 is what happens when a jobs report, crypto’s glow-up, Fed-chair musical chairs, and a live geopolitical powder keg all walk into the same podcast and nobody leaves with lower blood pressure. Chris and Saied tear into the bizarre disconnect between war headlines and market optimism, question whether Wall Street has confused “priced in” with “blindfolded,” break down oil, rates, and why replacing Powell with Warsh is a lot messier when inflation and recession risk are both lurking in the room, and still find time to laugh their way through the chaos like only THS can. In other words: a little macro, a little mayhem, and a strong reminder that just because the market is acting calm does not mean the world is.💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays. Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com🔗 Resources:We skipped the links and just kept it as real as possible this week.⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

AI isn’t coming “eventually.” It’s coming this year... and the biggest scam is that you’re training the model that replaces you every time you use it. We break down Nvidia’s blowout quarter and why the market still shrugged, then zoom out to the darker part: the circular financing and “investment” theater where Big Tech writes checks to OpenAI… and OpenAI hands it right back as infrastructure spend. We talk the real endgame (jobs → AGI → UBI → asset owners win), and we close with the only sane answer: own assets, learn agentic AI, and build yourself into the part of the system that can’t be commoditized.💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays. Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com🔗 Resources:Nvidia just reported record Q4 revenue (Christopher M. Naghibi via X)The Macroeconomic Consequences of AI (Moody’s Analytics)Report: Jobs That Are Most And Least Impacted By AI (Forbes)The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership (OpenAI)The Investment Example (Christopher M. Naghibi via X)What Sam Altman Doesn't Want You To Know (More Perfect Union)⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Inflation “cooled” to a 2.4% headline print and yields eased, so the market tried to act like everything’s fine. Then you pay your utility bill, buy groceries, or look at a mortgage payment and remember we’re living in a post 2020 price reset economy. In this episode, we break down why CPI can look “better” while real life stays expensive, why housing is still stuck even with slightly lower rates, and how incentives are doing the heavy lifting for builders while affordability remains the real problem. We also hit the reality check in autos with record 1.67T in debt and subprime delinquencies at an all time high. And because the timeline can’t just be normal, we wrap with the AI ladder, from narrow tools to agentic systems, and what it means when the robots go from talking to doing.💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays. Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com🔗 Resources:Consumer Price Index Summary (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)Treasury yields slip after slightly lighter CPI reading (CNBC)⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

This episode is a full-on “the headline is the least important part” takedown. We break down how the U.S. manufacturing side of the jobs data is quietly screaming recession (32 straight months of declines… yeah, that’s a thing), while the media does victory laps on top-line numbers like we’re not all watching the revisions come in later with a chair and popcorn. Then we get into the weirdest plot twist of the labor market: retirees are re-entering and grabbing new roles at rising rates, while under-25 workers are fading from the “new job” pipeline—because apparently the American Dream is now a part-time shift… after you already retired. Add in the usual THS spice: AI hype, crypto whiplash, and the “sensational headlines vs. reality” problem that keeps everyone emotional and nobody informed.💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays. Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com🔗 Resources:Retirees are increasingly re-entering the labor market (Hedeye via X)NEW: Job growth SURGED in January, adding 130,000 total non-farm jobs and 172,000 private sector jobs (Rapid Response 47 via X)I wouldn’t exhale with today’s job numbers (Mark Zandi via X)Historic Negative Jobs Revisions: 1 Million Fewer Jobs Added In 2025 (Zero Hedge via X)2025 Worst Year for U.S. Hiring Since 2003 (Walter Bloomberg via X)U.S. home prices will be flat in 2026 (Lance Lamber via X)⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Markets had a little “AI anxiety attack” this week and Wall Street responded the only way it knows how: smash the sell button and ask questions later. We break down the $285B Anthropic-fueled rout, why the “automation boom” is starting to look like an entry-level job extinction event, and how Big Tech’s data-center dreams are already colliding with tighter financing and very real layoff math (looking at you, Oracle). Then we zoom out to the part nobody wants to talk about at cocktail parties: job cuts flashing red, wages getting blamed for everything, and a housing market that’s still wildly unaffordable because the underlying problem never left — it just changed outfits. Add a little bitcoin weakness for spice, and you’ve got Episode 321: the reality check Wall Street didn’t order, but absolutely needs.💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays. Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com🔗 Resources:New Anthropic AI problem (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)Bitcoin Prices Fall Below $75,000 To Reach Fresh 2026 Low (Forbes)Michael Burry says THIS is Bitcoin’s “death spiral” (Yahoo! Finance)Oracle plans biggest layoff in years (People Matters via Instagram)AI is gutting parts of the labor market (Ed Eldon via Instagram)Anthropic CEO on white collar jobs (AI.Rise.Co via Instagram)75% of tech jobs are about to disappear (Haris.Sy via Instagram)⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Episode 320 is a reminder that inflation isn’t a mystery and it definitely isn’t caused by your paycheck going up. This one cuts straight through the noise: tariffs aren’t “tough policy,” they’re a hidden tax, war risk isn’t some abstract headline, it’s an inflation accelerant, and the Fed is stuck trying to clean up a fiscal mess it didn’t create. While markets pretend everything is fine, corporate margins sit at historic highs, consumers keep spending, homeowners are insulated, and the cost quietly gets passed down the line. Wages get blamed, voters get distracted, and the money printer stays off-camera. Calm on the surface, pressure underneath... and a tariff time bomb sitting right in the middle of it all.💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays. Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com🔗 Resources:American consumers are bearing 96% of tariff costs, study finds (Morning Brew via Instagram)Tariffs have raised $200,000,000,000 in revenue for the U.S., but… (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)Consumer sentiment up 2.5 points from December, but… (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)Elon Musk made his first appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)Citi’s CEO Jane Fraser warns staff in memo… (Business Insider via Instagram)Starbucks jumps after U.S. sales rise for the first time in 2 years… (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)Rent concessions are on the rise in American Sunbelt cities… (Wall Street Journal via Instagram)The ‘Inverse Cramer’ fund launched 3 years ago… (Join Autopilot via Instagram)Studios’ share of the domestic box office in 2025 (CNBC via Instagram)⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Davos felt like a global ideas conference with elite vibes and thin solutions. AI talk shifted from fear to acceptance, while housing fixes turned into political theater full of carveouts and long-shot proposals. We break down why none of it moves the needle for real affordability, then zoom out to the real story: money, confidence, and a monetary system under pressure. As Ray Dalio warns and gold keeps signaling stress, Treasury yields do the real talking, because when the 10 year moves, everything follows.💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?This episode is proudly brought to you by Fridays. Because real wealth starts with your health. If you want to feel sharper, stronger, and more in control, visit joinfridays.com and use code HIGHER for an exclusive discount.📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com🔗 Resources:Recklessness is the spending of governments (DiscloseTV via X)Ray Dalio monetary order is breaking down (Pete Rizzo via X)Build-to-rent is exempt from White House’s order to 'ban' institutional homebuying (ResiClub)Understanding institutional landlord Invitation Homes’ new housing market bet (ResiClub)A 10% cap on credit card rates would be an "economic disaster..." (Yahoo! Finance via X)⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.