TDI Podcast: The Probability Payoff (#955)

Capturing Maduro and Buying Greenland – all in a day’s work! Markets off to a great start – plenty of January to go… Venezuela oil – untapped opportunity – BUT let’s take a closer look. And our Guest – Todd Tresidder – Founder of FinancialMentor.com NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE’S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Todd Tresidder graduated from the University of California at Davis with a B.A. in economics and a passion for creating successful businesses. A serial entrepreneur since childhood, Todd went on to build his own wealth as a hedge fund investment manager before “retiring” at 35 to teach others. Today, he provides advanced investment and retirement planning education at FinancialMentor.Com showing you what works, what doesn’t, and why based on a depth of proven experience. Todd is a financial coach and educator at FinancialMentor.com. He’s the author of five financial planning books including ‘How Much Money Do I Need To Retire?,’ ‘Don’t Hire A Financial Coach,’ and ‘Variable Annuity Pros and Cons.’ You can connect with Todd via his website, Financialmentor.com, Twitter @FinancialMentor, or on Google+. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SHLD), (RTX), (SPY), (GLD), (XLE)

Prospective Perspective – we are looking ahead by looking back. A new year – what may drive returns into 2026. So many guests, so much wisdom as we kick off another great year of the TDI Podcast and a great compilation this week of guest clips from 2025.   Learn More at http://www.ibkr.com/funds Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/tdi-strategy/ Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SPY), (RTX), (NOC), (SHLD), (GLD)

Being disciplined pays off. Markets finishing in a good place – ready for 2026. Fun times ahead with a January warning. Inspired by Market Wizards with our guest, the renowned Jack Schwager.  NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE’S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Mr. Schwager is a recognized industry expert in futures and hedge funds and the author of a number of widely acclaimed financial books. Mr. Schwager is one of the founders of Fund Seeder (FundSeeder.com), a platform designed to find undiscovered trading talent worldwide and connect unknown successful traders with sources of investment capital. Previously, Mr. Schwager was a partner in the Fortune Group (2001-2010), a London-based hedge fund advisory firm. His prior experience also includes 22 years as Director of Futures research for some of Wall Street‘s leading firms, most recently Prudential Securities. Mr. Schwager has written extensively on the futures industry and great traders in all financial markets. He is perhaps best known for his best-selling series of interviews with the greatest hedge fund managers of the last three decades: Unknown Market Wizards, (2020),  Market Wizards (1989, 2012), The New Market Wizards (1992), Stock Market Wizards (2001), Hedge Fund Market Wizards (2012), and The Little Book of Market Wizards (2014). His other books include Market Sense and Nonsense (2012), a compendium of investment misconceptions, and the three-volume series, Schwager on Futures, consisting of Fundamental Analysis (1995), Technical Analysis (1996), and Managed Trading (1996). He is also the author of Getting Started in Technical Analysis (1999), part of John Wiley‘s popular Getting Started series. Learn More at http://www.ibkr.com/funds Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/tdi-strategy/ Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SPY), (NVDA), (TOST), (QQQ), (GLD)

The walls are coming down – the house of cards exposed. We have economic data – late but we got it. And that concludes the last full week of trading for 2025! And our guest – Robbie Miles, CEO of Live and Let Live NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE’S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Robbie Miles is the CEO of Live and Let Live – Live and Let Live is a global movement committed to building a freer, more peaceful world. As part of the Live and Let Live community, you’re surrounded by individuals who share a passion for personal responsibility, non-aggression, and being good humans. Here, we connect, collaborate, and grow together — exchanging ideas, supporting one another, and taking action that aligns with our shared values of peace, freedom, and human flourishing. Whether you’re here to learn, contribute, or lead, there’s a place for you in this movement. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SLV), (GLD), (ORCL)

The Fed cuts and keeps markets guessing. Silver hits a record – up 100% this year. Looking at frameworks and fake transparency. And our guest – Ed Easterling, Founder and President of Crestmont Research NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE’S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Ed Easterling is the founder and President of Crestmont Holdings, an Oregon-based investment management and research firm that publishes provocative research on the financial markets at www.CrestmontResearch.com. He has over thirty years of alternative investment experience, including financial markets, private equity, and business operations. Mr. Easterling is the author of recently-released Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights and Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles (Cypress House; 2005). In addition, he is contributing author to Just One Thing (John Wiley & Sons; 2005) and co-author of chapters in Bull‘s Eye Investing by John Mauldin. Mr. Easterling is a Senior Fellow and a Board Member at the Alternative Asset Management Center at SMU‘s Cox School of Business in Dallas, and previously served as a member of the adjunct faculty teaching the course on alternative investments and hedge funds for MBA students. Mr. Easterling holds a BBA in business, a BA in psychology, and an MBA from Southern Methodist University. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SPY), (QQQ), (NVDA), (IBM)

Quick flip and pivot – Fed in focus. Stagflation alert – inflation remains sticky. Unemployment – ADP show massive losses in one category. Looking into the Prediction Markets with our guest, Andrew Wilkinson – Director of Trading Education at Interactive Brokers.    NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE’S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Andrew Wilkinson, Director of Trading Education at Interactive Brokers. Andrew joined Interactive Brokers in 2007 with a background in interest rate and derivative trading in the city of London during the 1990s. Andrew joined IBKR to create market commentary about stocks, options, forex and bonds for the website before helping create the IBKR Campus, which covers Traders’ Insight, Traders’ Academy, webinars, podcasts and a variety of other financial training for investors of all levels. Andrew has an MBA from Rollins College FL. Learn More at http://www.ibkr.com/funds Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/tdi-strategy/ eNVESTOLOGY Info – https://envestology.com/ Stocks mentioned in this episode: (BTCUSD), (DIA), (SPY)

Tax Relief Boosts Corporate Earnings S&P 500 Financial Performance Analysis Share Buybacks and Market Indices Guest, Howard Silverblatt – Senior Industry Analyst, Index Investment Strategy, for S&P Dow Jones Indices NEW! Download the AI Generated Show Notes (Guest Segment) Howard Silverblatt (@hsilverb) is Senior Industry Analyst, Index Investment Strategy, for S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI). In addition to general market research and commentary, Howard is responsible for the statistical analysis of S&P DJI’s family of U.S. Indices, including the world’s most followed stock market index, the S&P 500®. Howard has been with Standard & Poor’s since 1977, and has held various analytic, business development, and product positions. He joined S&P Indices in 1983 as an editor, and has since received numerous corporate and industry awards, most notably for his work on the creation and development of Standard & Poor’s core earnings and Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®). Howard is widely quoted in top tier news publications around the world, providing in-depth analysis and information on a myriad of topics impacting the investment industry. Howard graduated with a B.S. in Business Management from Syracuse University.   Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (NVDA), (DELL), (BTCUSD)

We got numbers! NVIDIA EARNINGS – now we know – remarkable turnaround on the news. Yen at critical levels – global markets should be on alert. This week’s guest – Tim Knight – a self proclaimed Permabear. NEW! Download the AI Generated Show Notes (Guest Segment) Tim Knight has been charting and trading since 1987. His first stock trade was, in fact, on October 19, 1987 – the day of the crash – which perhaps goes a long way explaining his disposition toward bearishness. He has been involved in personal computers since late 1979 and, starting at age 16, began writing a couple dozen books about using and programming computers. His most recent writing has been focused on charting and the history of financial markets, including his newest books, Panic, Prosperity, and Progress, and, more recently, Silicon Valley Babble On and Solid State, his first novel. He has been running Slope since March 29 2005 and has, during that time, written more than 30,000 posts on the site. In 1992 Knight founded Prophet, a web-based technical analysis company that was acquired by Investools (and, later, Ameritrade) in January 2005. Tim served as Senior Vice President of Technology for Investools from 2005 through 2010. Both Barron’s & Forbes consistently named Prophet the #1 website for technical analysis. Besides running the Slope of Hope, Tim also hosts a daily show on the tastylive network, Trading Charts with Tim Knight. You can find Sam Burns & Mill Street Research at https://slopeofhope.com/ and on Twitter at @slopeofhope. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (NVDA), (GLD), (BTCUSD), (MSFT), ($YEN)

The Government is back open – is that a good thing? October’s economic data may be lost forever. Investors questioning valuations and the skinny on robotaxis with our Guest – Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki. NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE’S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment)   Ross Gerber is the Co-Founder, President and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. Ross oversees Gerber Kawasaki’s corporate and investment management operations as well as serves individual clients. Ross has become one of the most followed investors on social and in traditional media. His investment ideas and advice have made him a regular in the business news and he is featured on CNN, CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg and Reuters as well as a contributing writer for Forbes.com. He has been ranked as one of the most influential investment advisors and Fintech innovators in America*. Ross and the Gerber Kawasaki team oversees well over a billion dollars of investments focused on technology, media and entertainment companies for clients and the firm. Gerber Kawasaki has grown to be a leader in Fintech by leveraging technology to work with a younger generation of clients. Ross is an expert in online marketing and social media as well as co-developed the company’s app for IOS. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (NVDA), (TSLA), (AMD), (MSFT), (GOOGL), (GEV), (ORCL), (CRM)

The Emperor New Clothes – looks familiar. A closer look at valuations Tariffs under fire – Supreme court hearings. And our Guest, Manual Blay – The Dow Theory.com  – Newsletter – Home of the Schannep & Blay Timing Indicators. NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE’S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) Manuel Blay is the editor of TheDowTheory.com, a top-ranked investment letter that has garnered a remarkable reputation for assisting investors in navigating Bear markets while maximizing profits during Bull markets. Mr. Blay’s investment Letter is frequently quoted by Forbes, MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance, etc. Furthermore, he has extended the application of the Dow Theory beyond stocks to encompass U.S. bonds and precious metals. Throughout his career, Mr. Blay has actively traded for his personal portfolio. Prior to his endeavors as a trader and investment writer, he held a directorial position at an investment fund management company. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz  Stocks mentioned in this episode: (DELL), (AMD), (NVDA), (AAPL), (F), (SPY), (QQQ)