Seix Fears More Zombie Borrower Distress as Interest Rates Stay High

Investors underestimate the hazards in private debt, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. “There’s a lot of additional credit risk that people are often taking in some of these private situations that you kind of turn a blind eye to,” Christian Stracke, the $2.3 trillion asset manager’s president, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “There is a fairly large overhang of problem loans that were made in years earlier this decade that will take years to burn through,” he adds. They also discuss deteriorating debt underwriting standards in the technology sector, Europe’s big defense investment opportunity and the “sell America” trade.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pressure on highly-indebted companies will intensify as interest rates remain elevated, according to Seix Investment Advisors. “We have a lot of credit zombies — B3/B minus or CCC rated credits — that still have very weak interest coverage, generating zero free cash flow,” George Goudelias, chief investment officer of the firm’s leveraged finance platform, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jean-Yves Coupin in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “There are mine fields to avoid in this market,” he adds. They also discuss the impact of private credit on public leveraged finance, why Seix is bearish on technology and how rising “sell America” sentiment could affect corporate debt.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Despite all the negative headlines around private credit, Neuberger Berman says direct loans pay a lot more than traded debt and barely make a loss. “We pretty consistently see a 200 basis point differential,” Susan Kasser, the gobal investment management firm’s head of private debt, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Our annualized loss rates are one basis point,” she adds. They also discuss how artificial intelligence helps to pinpoint investment opportunities and why private markets will probably continue to get bad press.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Venezuela debt holders will likely have to wait years to get their money back after regime change in the oil-rich nation, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “The near-term challenges are nothing short of massive,” says Damian Sassower, chief emerging-markets credit strategist, in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “I think the rest of this year is spent trying to figure out how to make Venezuela investable,” said Spencer Cutter, who covers US energy producers for BI. They also discuss opportunities and risks for American and Canadian oil companies, the sale of Citgo Petroleum and the “domino effect” on China.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Credit is one of many overvalued markets and the technology sector is particularly risky, according to Richard Bernstein Advisors. “We’re kind of in an everything bubble at the moment,” Mike Contopoulos, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Tech is going to come back down to earth a little bit this year,” said Contopoulos. RBA, which invests across asset classes via exchange-traded funds, has no exposure to corporate credit. They also discuss value in collateralized loan obligations, mortgage-backed securities and Europe.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Long-term debt bets on technology companies that are borrowing heavily for AI may end in tears, according to Newfleet Asset Management. “It’s one of the biggest risks out there,” said Dave Albrycht, the multi-sector fixed income manager’s president and chief investment officer. “There’s no free lunch in the bond market,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. Besides investment-grade companies borrowing to fund equity-like risk, they discuss the risk of Oracle falling to junk, why asset-backed securities are a hedge and how leveraged loans will be worth buying when the Federal Reserve stops cutting rates.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

KKR is looking to Europe and Japan for yield as US debt spreads grind tighter. “Investors are very focused on relative value in a market where there’s not a lot,” Tal Reback, global investment strategist for the firm’s credit and markets business, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “In general, investors are much more intrigued about how to diversify geographically,” she adds. They also discuss what KKR thinks could be a $1 trillion European asset-backed debt opportunity, private credit default risk, valuations of direct loans, sector bets and business development companies.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The technology-funding frenzy could become a bust for credit markets if AI falls short of lofty expectations, according to Barclays. “If we get to a point where we see a lot of this issuance coming to the market — and then there’s some changes, where maybe certain things are a little bit less viable or a little bit less attractive — that leads to some downside risks,” Brad Rogoff, the firm’s global head of research, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike Campellone in the latest Credit Edge podcast. They also discuss “late-cycle” behavior, private-debt risk, asset-based finance and portfolio trades, as well as Barclays’ 2026 forecasts for credit spreads, defaults and global issuance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global investors are looking more at European private credit as US returns get squeezed, according to London-based hedge fund Arini. “They want to focus on a place where they think there’s rule of law, where they think there’s opportunity set — and that’s really been Europe,” Mathew Cestar, the firm’s president, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephane Kovatchev in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Europe pays about 50 basis points more on private loans than the US to compensate for its relative complexity, says Cestar, who leads the Arini’s direct lending business. The firm generates additional spread by focusing on middle-market, non-sponsor deals across the continent. Cestar also discusses credit agreements, defaults, the potential for investment in defense and where by country and sector he sees the best opportunity.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vanguard Group, the world’s second-largest money manager, is wary of junk bonds given how expensive they’ve become. “Where the market is today doesn’t leave a lot of room for negative surprises,” Michael Chang, head of high-yield corporate credit at the $11 trillion asset manager, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matthew Geudtner in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “Spreads are pretty tight, yields are about average — it’s not the best time to be investing in high yield,” Chang says. They also discuss Vanguard’s preference for debt from utilities and consumer staples companies, how to get extra yield from leveraged loans and how to profit from liability-management exercises.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.