AI 2040: Plan A

Prevediamo che l'impatto dell'intelligenza artificiale superumana nel prossimo decennio sarà enorme, superando quello della rivoluzione industriale.Abbiamo scritto uno scenario che rappresenta la nostra migliore ipotesi su come potrebbero svilupparsi gli eventi. Si basa su estrapolazioni di tendenze, simulazioni strategiche, feedback di esperti, esperienza presso OpenAI e precedenti successi nel campo delle previsioni.

Nous prévoyons que l'impact de l'IA surhumaine au cours de la prochaine décennie sera énorme, dépassant celui de la révolution industrielle.Nous avons écrit un scénario qui représente notre meilleure estimation de ce à quoi cela pourrait ressembler. Il s'appuie sur des extrapolations de tendances, des simulations stratégiques (wargames), des commentaires d'experts, l'expérience acquise chez OpenAI et nos succès précédents en matière de prévision.

Predecimos que el impacto de la IA sobrehumana en la próxima década será enorme, incluso mayor que el de la Revolución Industrial.Redactamos un escenario que representa nuestra mejor suposición de cómo sería eso. Se basa en extrapolaciones de tendencias, juegos de guerra, comentarios de expertos, experiencia en OpenAI y pronósticos anteriores acertados.

AI companies are racing to build AIs that are smarter than humans in every way. In AI 2027, we predicted that this would result in either extinction or irreversible concentration of power.1Plan A is our positive vision for what should happen instead.In this scenario, humanity delays the development of superintelligence until 2040, makes all AI research public, allows dozens of companies globally to catch up to the frontier, and intentionally enters a regime of mutually assured compute destruction.

We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like. It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes.(This is the short version without footnotes or expandable boxes.)

We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like. It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes.