182: 3 Reasons the Stock Market May Have Bottomed

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading podcast, host Eric O'Rourke breaks down three key reasons why a potential short-term bottom may be forming in the market.Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and recent volatility, Eric walks through the signals that suggest the market may be stabilizing—and possibly preparing for a move higher.In this episode, you’ll learn:Why dip buyers stepping in during negative news could signal strengthWhat the recent drop in the VIX tells us about market sentimentHow stronger-than-expected economic data is influencing market directionWhy the market may already be looking past current headlinesHow short-term traders can think about longer-term market positioningEric also shares an important perspective on how the stock market tends to look months ahead—something many short-term traders often overlook.Whether you're trading SPX options or just trying to understand current market conditions, this episode offers a practical, data-driven view of what might come next.🔗 Resources & Links:Alpha Crunching (SPX trading tools, data, and community): https://alphacrunching.comStock Market Options Trading: https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.netAbout the Host:Eric O’Rourke is the founder of Alpha Crunching, a growing community focused on data-driven SPX options trading strategies. Through research, backtesting, and real-time tools, Alpha Crunching helps traders identify high-probability opportunities in short-duration trades.

Brian Terry’s Conservative Options Income Group: https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.netEric O’Rourke’s SPX Trading Community:https://www.alphacrunching.comTrading in a community gives you perspective, shared ideas, and support—far better than trying to figure it all out on your own.In this episode, Eric O’Rourke is joined by Brian Terry to break down how they’re navigating a highly volatile, headline-driven market. With uncertainty tied to global events and sharp intraday reversals, both emphasize that sometimes the best trade is no trade at all—and that sitting in cash can be a strategic edge.Brian shares how he’s staying active by focusing on strength in the energy sector, using diagonal call strategies and poor man’s covered calls on oil-related stocks showing relative strength. Rather than changing strategy structures, he explains how simply rotating into stronger sectors can maintain a bullish or neutral approach even in a weak market.Eric contrasts this with his SPX-focused approach, where many bullish credit spread strategies are no longer triggering. He discusses why “flipping” strategies (e.g., turning put spreads into call spreads) doesn’t always work, based on backtesting results. Instead, he’s adapting through shorter-duration trades, including 0DTE trend-based spreads, while being more selective—especially on volatile gap days.Check this Video: https://youtu.be/WLNR_5wf6YIThey also dive into:The impact of extreme intraday reversals on short-term tradingWhy timing (like the 10:30am window) can improve probabilitiesAdjusting position sizing and exposure during uncertain conditionsUsing moving averages (like the 100 and 200-day) to manage longer-term portfoliosThe challenge of knowing when to re-enter after going to cashThe episode wraps with a key reminder: markets like this require flexibility, patience, and discipline. You don’t need to force trades—wait for conditions to improve and protect capital so you’re ready when opportunities return.

In this episode, Eric O’Rourke is joined by Brian Terry from the Conservative Options Income Network (COIN) to break down a recent SPX iron condor trade that caught attention for its unusually wide structure.With volatility elevated and market conditions shifting, Brian walks through how he constructed a 7-day iron condor nearly 600 points wide—while still keeping defined risk and a high probability of success. The discussion covers how iron condors work, why wider strikes can make sense in high VIX environments, and how to think about risk, adjustments, and profit targets.They also dive into:Why Brian targets ~50% profit and exits earlyHow to manage trades when one side gets challengedThe pros and cons of rolling vs. closing one sideUsing iron condors as a “campaign” strategy in volatile marketsThe role of discretion vs. systematic tradingEric also shares how this type of neutral strategy can complement Alpha Crunching systems, especially when bullish setups are paused during bearish market conditions.If you’ve ever wondered how to trade iron condors in volatile markets—or how to stay active when directional strategies aren’t triggering—this episode is packed with practical insights.👉 Learn more about Alpha Crunching and join the community: https://alphacrunching.com 👉 Check out Brian’s COIN alerts: https://stockmarketoptiontrading.net

Want to trade SPX 0DTE with a proven system instead of guessing?Alpha Crunching gives you the tools, alerts, and community to do it.👉 Try it today and take 50% off with code SPX50 at AlphaCrunching.comIn this episode, Eric O’Rourke breaks down a practical question many options traders ask: what does it actually take to make $100 per day selling options?Using real SPX credit spread examples, Eric walks through different ways traders approach profit targets—from letting spreads expire worthless to taking profits early—and why focusing only on percentage returns (like 50%) can be misleading. He explains how spread width, contract sizing, commissions, and capital requirements all play a role in reaching consistent daily income goals.You’ll hear the trade-offs between:Selling narrower vs. wider spreadsTaking profits early vs. holding to expirationIncreasing contracts vs. increasing risk per tradeMoving further out of the money for higher probability setupsEric also shares how he’s been adjusting his own approach, including using wider spreads and targeting fixed dollar profits per trade, along with how tools like the Trend Spread Engine (TSE) fit into decision-making.If you're looking to better understand the mechanics behind generating consistent income with SPX credit spreads—without overcomplicating the strategy—this episode lays out the key concepts.👉 Learn more and explore strategies at AlphaCrunching.comJoin a growing community of SPX traders using data-driven tools and real-time alerts.

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric explains an idea that comes up frequently in the SPX trading community: the difference between market conditions and trading signals—and why that distinction matters when trading credit spreads.Many traders use indicators like moving averages or trend indicators strictly for buy or sell signals, such as a moving average crossover. But when trading premium strategies like credit spreads, Eric explains why it can be more effective to evaluate market conditions instead. For example, a simple condition like the 5-day moving average being above the 10-day moving average can indicate a bullish environment without waiting for the actual crossover signal.Eric also shares how this concept applies to the 0DTE Trend Spread Engine, where trend is checked at set time intervals throughout the day to determine whether conditions favor bullish or bearish credit spreads—without waiting for the indicator to flip signals.Because credit spreads benefit from time decay (theta) and only require the market to stay generally on the correct side of the trade, focusing on conditions rather than perfect timing can allow traders to increase trade frequency, trade smaller, and stay aligned with the broader market environment.About the HostThe podcast is hosted by Eric O’Rourke, options trader and founder of Alpha Crunching, a data-driven platform and community focused on trading SPX options strategies. Inside the Alpha Crunching community, traders explore tools like the Trend Spread Engine, backtested strategies, and market condition frameworks designed to help structure credit spread trading.Learn more about the community and tools at:👉 https://alphacrunching.com

Before we jump in — if you want to see the tools mentioned in this episode in action, including the 0DTE Trend Spread Engine and the 1DTE Bias indicator, visit AlphaCrunching.com to learn more and join the trading community.In this episode, Eric discusses the recent market breakdown and how current geopolitical tensions, volatility, and upcoming economic data are shaping trading decisions. With SPX experiencing sharp moves and uncertainty rising, he walks through how he’s adapting his approach and managing trades during this environment.A major theme is market structure and key levels. Right now, gamma positioning appears scattered across large round numbers, suggesting institutional traders themselves are uncertain. As a result, Eric is watching major SPX levels every 100 points (6600, 6700, 6800, etc.) as potential support and resistance zones while the market “ping-pongs” between them.He also reviews the macro backdrop driving volatility, including geopolitical tensions, sector rotation away from AI stocks, and a busy week of economic data with CPI, jobless claims, and PCE all ahead. These events could determine whether the market stabilizes or pushes lower toward the mid-6600s.Eric then explains how he’s positioning his portfolio:Maintaining a core SPY position while actively trading around itUsing covered calls and rolling positions to manage downside while leaving room for upside participationPausing many longer-duration spreads due to increased uncertaintyMuch of the current trading activity has shifted toward shorter-term strategies, particularly SPX 0DTE trades.The episode highlights how the AlphaCrunching 0DTE Trend Spread Engine (TSE) is being used in practice. The system ranks the best times of day for 0DTE spreads based on historical performance and now posts the short strike levels from the highest-probability trades. These levels act as data-backed areas where SPX has historically stayed away from by expiration, allowing traders to use them as reference points for structuring credit spreads.Eric also introduces progress on the 1DTE Bias indicator, an experimental tool that evaluates market regimes using factors like trend behavior and VIX conditions. By comparing current conditions to historical matches over the past three years, the tool estimates the probability of the market closing higher the next day. The recent volatility spike has highlighted one of the challenges of building this model: unusual market conditions sometimes produce very small historical sample sizes.The episode closes with an important reminder about patience and risk management. In volatile environments, it’s often better to wait for conditions to settle rather than forcing trades. Sometimes the best position is simply holding cash until clearer opportunities emerge.Overall, this discussion provides a real-time look at how Eric is navigating a volatile market using a combination of macro awareness, probability-based levels, and adaptive options strategies.

👉 Read the Trend Spread Engine article here:https://www.alphacrunching.com/blog/spx-0dte-options-trading-using-the-trend-spread-engine-to-find-high-probability-intraday-windowsIn this episode, I expand on a concept Brian Terry shared in Episode 174 about entering iron condors one side at a time — waiting for rallies to sell calls and pullbacks to sell puts.That idea of patience and better positioning really resonated with me… and I’ve started applying it directly to my SPX 0DTE trading.After launching the Trend Spread Engine in Episodes 172 and 173, we’ve been tracking every 0DTE credit spread posted throughout the day and compiling weekly performance reports. We’re seeing certain morning time blocks show 90%+ expiration win rates.But here’s the key:High probability doesn’t mean you need to enter immediately.Instead of chasing the alert the moment it posts, I’m marking those statistically backed strike levels on my chart and waiting for volatility to give me a better entry — either higher strikes or better credit.In today’s volatile market, patience can mean:Better distance from priceHigher probability positioningImproved risk/reward structureLess emotional tradingThis applies whether you’re trading 0DTE, 7DTE, or 30+ days to expiration.If you trade credit spreads, this episode will help you think differently about execution and timing — especially in fast-moving markets.Referenced Episodes:Episode 174 – Brian Terry’s Breakeven Iron Condor StrategyEpisodes 172 & 173 – Introduction to the Trend Spread EngineAs always, trade smart and manage risk.

In this episode, I’m joined by Brian Terry to break down a breakeven iron condor strategy he’s actively trading right now.Brian walks through how he enters the call side and put side separately, targeting equal credits on each side with 7 days to expiration. The key twist? He uses a 200% stop on each side, which means if one side gets stopped out, the trade is designed to be roughly breakeven overall.We talk through:Why separating entries can improve flexibilityHow the 200% stop changes the risk profileWhy this works well on SPX, and how newer traders can adapt it to SPY for smaller sizeThe mindset behind trading income strategies defensively, not emotionallyBrian runs the Conservative Options Income Network (COIN) over at https://stockmarketoptionstrading.net, where you can start a 14-day free trial and see his real trades, including the strategy discussed in this episode.If you’re interested in structured, rules-based options income strategies, this is a great one to study.

Earnings season can be one of the biggest drivers of volatility in the stock market—and understanding how stocks behave around earnings is critical for options traders.In this episode, I’m joined by Dan to talk about trading earnings and a tool he uses called Earnings Watcher. We break down the basics of volatility around earnings announcements, common patterns traders look for, and how Earnings Watcher helps stay organized while analyzing historical price and volatility behavior around earnings events.Whether you actively trade earnings or just want a better understanding of how earnings impact the broader market, this conversation will help put the process into context. 🔗 Earnings Watcher: https://earnings-watcher.com/pricing_smot

In this episode, we review some early backtest results from AlphaCrunching.com's newly launched 0DTe Trend Spread Engine (TSE).We're only 3 weeks into the stats but taking 0DTE trend spreads during the lunch hour at 12pm over the past 3 weeks has won 100% of the time. We're not expecting this type of performance to last forever but seeing this hot spots of high performance based on time of day entry is revealing some edge most traders are missing.We would love you to join Alpha Crunching as we continue this build in public approach for SPX 0DTE Options Trading.👉 Explore Alpha Crunching and get a discount:https://alphacrunching.comDiscount code: SPX50 for 50% off first month or year.🔗 Connect with Eric on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/jericorourke/