Americano: Could Pennsylvania decide the US election?

Israel has launched what it has described as "limited, localised and targeted ground raids" in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah’s deputy leader says they’re ready for a ground offensive. It comes as more than 1000 people have been killed in the past two weeks in Lebanon. Could they be heading for all-out war? Is it possible that Iran and the US will be sucked into the conflict too? With tensions between Israel and the US on the rise, what will the next few weeks look like – and is there a chance Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah open the way to strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities? Professor John Mearsheimer joins The Spectator’s deputy editor and Americano host Freddy Gray to discuss what’s next for Israel, and the geopolitical implications. This episode is also available to watch on Spectator TV. 

This week: Israel’s revenge and Iran’s humiliation. As the anniversary of the October 7th attacks by Hamas approaches, the crisis in the Middle East has only widened. Israel has sent troops into southern Lebanon and there have been attempted missile strikes from the Houthi rebels in Yemen and from Iran. Is there any way the situation can de-escalate? And how could Israel respond to Iran? Former BBC foreign correspondent Paul Wood and defence and security research Dr Limor Simhony join the podcast (1:03). Next: it’s the end of an era for The Spectator. This issue is Fraser Nelson’s last as he hands over the reins to Michael Gove. Having spent 15 years as editor, with 784  issues to his name, what are his reflections on his time here at 22 Old Queen Street? You can also hear an extract from Toby Young’s column, where he reveals a  coincidental dinner that took place last week (13:25). And finally: should we mourn the demise of the physical invitation? Yes, says Philip Womack in his Notes on in the magazine this week, as he declares ‘bring back the stiffy!’. They’re a ritual, a pleasure, a memento that will be most missed. Philip joined the podcast to ponder their decline, alongside our Dear Mary columnist Mary Killen (29:00). Hosted by William Moore and Lara Prendergast. Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Oscar Edmondson.

My guest in this week's Book Club podcast is Malcolm Gladwell. Twenty-five years after he published The Tipping Point, Malcolm returns to the subject of his first book in Revenge of the Tipping Point: Overstories, Superspreaders and the Rise of Social Engineering. He tells me about the 'magic third', why it's not just Covid that gave us superspreaders, and how what he calls an 'overstory' can have dramatic effects on human behaviour. He talks, too, about why counterintuitive discoveries are easy to find, and why we're all wrong about everything all the time.

The mood at Conservative conference has been surprisingly jubilant considering the turmoil that the party finds itself in. Labour's misfortunes may have contributed to this, but there seems to be a genuine optimism around the four candidates vying for the leadership of the party. What's the latest? Have Kemi Badenoch's comments on maternity pay impacted her position with the members?  Also on the podcast, this evening will see the Vance vs Walz vice presidential debate. They go head to head in an increasingly tight election. What does Trump vs Harris say about the state of American politics? And can any of these candidates – on either side of the pond – expect to be fighting future elections for their parties?  The Spectator's Fraser Nelson speaks to Katy Balls, Kate Andrews and Sarah Elliott from Republicans Overseas UK. 

America has a peculiar way of deciding national elections. Instead of a cumulative national vote, the president and vice president are determined by fifty separate state elections. The top ticket in each state (except Nebraska and Maine) receives all that state’s electoral votes, no matter how slim the margin of victory. Each state’s electoral votes are equal to its number of House members plus its senators. The winner needs 270 electoral votes. What if, in this razor-thin election, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris fall one vote short? Freddy Gray is joined by Charles Lipson, contributor to The Spectator and political scientist,  to answer that question. You can read the rest of his piece here. Join Freddy Gray a special live recording of Americano on Thursday 24 October. You can buy tickets at www.spectator.co.uk/electionspecial. 

** On October 19, Cindy Yu and a panel of special guests will be recording a live Chinese Whispers at London's Battle of Ideas festival, talking the latest on China’s economic slowdown and asking – what are the social and political implications? Is China in decline? Chinese Whispers listeners can get a 20 per cent discount on the ticket price with the code WHISPERS24. Click here to find out more and get your ticket. ** The release of ChatGPT in late 2022 brought home the sheer potential of artificial intelligence and the speed with which developments are being made. It made AI the hot topic from business to politics and, yes, journalism.  This was true in China too, despite the fact that ChatGPT has never been allowed to be used within Chinese borders. Instead, China has a rich landscape of homegrown AI products, where progress is being led by tech giants like search engine Baidu and TikTok’s owner, ByteDance. So already we are seeing a bifurcation in the AI worlds of China and the West – just like with social media and e-commerce. This episode will peek over the Great Firewall to update listeners on China’s progress on AI. The country is fast becoming an AI superpower even as it limits the freedoms its generative models can have and keeps out some of the world’s leading companies. Could this be the next arms race? Cindy Yu is joined by the researcher Matt Sheehan, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a long time watcher of China’s tech scene.

Freddy Gray is joined by Oliver Bateman, historian and journalist based in Pittsburgh. They discuss how important Pennsylvania will be during the election, the mail-in ballot system, and the state of the race. 

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Rachel Johnson reads her diary for the week (1:19); James Heale analyses the true value of Labour peer Lord Alli (6:58); Paul Wood questions if Israel is trying to drag America into a war with Iran (11:59); Rowan Pelling reviews Want: Sexual Fantasies, collated by Gillian Anderson (19:47); and Graeme Thomson explores the ethics of the posthumous publication of new music (28:00).    Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Labour’s Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson returns to Women With Balls in a special live edition of the podcast, recorded at Labour Party conference. The MP for Houghton and Sunderland South since 2010, Phillipson joined Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet in 2020, and was appointed Shadow Education Secretary the following year. She retained her brief following the general election, and was also appointed Minister for Women and Equalities. Katy talks to Bridget about her priorities for Education, what she thinks about the idea that too many people go to university, and the recovery of schools and pupils post-pandemic.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Patrick Gibbons.

This week: who’s on top in the Conservative leadership race? That’s the question Katy Balls asks in the magazine this week as she looks ahead to the Conservative Party conference. Each Tory hopeful will be pitching for the support of MPs and the party faithful ahead of the next round of voting. Who’s got the most to lose, and could there be some sneaky tactics behind the scenes? Katy joins the podcast to discuss, alongside Conservative peer Ruth Porter, who ran Liz Truss’s leadership campaign in 2022. We also include an excerpt from the hustings that Katy conducted with each of the candidates earlier this week. You can find the full interviews on The Spectator’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@SpectatorTV (02:07) Next: should trail hunting be banned? Flora Watkins concedes that the hunting community has not helped its case over the years when considering the future of the sport. However, she argues that a minority should not spoil a sport that is ‘thrilling, sociable and bloodless’. In a heated discussion, Flora joins the podcast to make her case with campaigner Dominic Dyer. (17:43) And finally: what to make of Sally Rooney’s new novel Intermezzo? In the magazine this week Claire Lowdon argues that the novel is an ‘enjoyable old-fashioned love story… but high literature it is not’. Why? Reviewing the book for the Times James Marriott argues Rooney’s characters are ‘sensitive’ but also too ‘precious and prissy’. How warranted is the criticism of Rooney? Claire and James join the pod. (31:50)   Hosted by William Moore and Gus Carter. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Patrick Gibbons.