Shoulder to Shoulder podcast

(223) Iran at the Crossroads: Regime Change, Chaos, and the Strategic Choices Ahead

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Pastor Doug is away this week, so Rabbi Pesach Wolicki flies solo with returning guest Elliot Chodoff, an IDF reserve major and longtime expert on military strategy and the Middle East.

Together they take a deep dive into the rapidly evolving confrontation with Iran and the difficult questions now facing Israel, the United States, and the region. What would "regime change" in Iran actually mean? Could the West pursue stability by leaving parts of the regime intact, or would that only guarantee that the same system rebuilds itself in a few years?

Pesach and Elliot explore the competing interests of Israel, the United States, and the Gulf states, the dangers of a chaotic collapse in Tehran, and why Iran's ideological system may be fundamentally different from regimes that have fallen elsewhere. They also unpack a crucial but little understood factor in the current moment: the existence of two militaries in Iran, the regime loyal Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the national Iranian army, and how the army's choices could determine the outcome of any uprising.

The conversation ranges from the lessons of Nazi Germany and Iraq to the possibility of internal revolt inside Iran. One conclusion becomes clear. However uncertain the future may be, the current regime in Tehran remains the most dangerous outcome of all.

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