2026 Mid-year Debt Capital Markets Outlook

In this special episode of Market Points, Scotiabank presents highlights from The Scotiabank Women Initiative (SWI) Summer Insights Forum, Leading in the Age of AI. As AI continues to reshape how organizations operate, leaders are navigating new questions around innovation, governance and workforce transformation. Featuring insights from experts at Scotiabank, Microsoft and eStruxture Data Centers, this episode captures key moments from a timely discussion on building trust, driving adoption and creating sustainable value through AI.

Debt capital markets delivered another record-setting start to the year, with strong issuance across both Canada and the U.S. In this episode of Market Points, Patrick Dabiet, Managing Director and Co-Head of Canadian Debt Capital Markets and Government Finance, and Fadi Attia, Managing Director and Head of U.S. Debt Syndication, look at what drove first-half activity and why markets have been able to absorb so much supply. They also discuss the key themes expected to shape the second half of 2026, and how markets are positioning to handle continued issuance amid the path of interest rates, evolving investor demand, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

In this episode of Market Points, Patrick Bryden, Managing Director, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Investment Research, Global Equity Research, Olivier Gervais, Director, Modelling and Forecasting, Scotiabank Economics, and Hugo Ste-Marie, Analyst, Portfolio and Quantitative Strategy, Global Equity Research, discuss key findings from their latest Scotiabank 360° Multi-Asset Investment Ideas report, What If the Oil Shock Intensifies? Implications for the Canadian Economy and Beyond. They examine how the current oil shock compares with historical crises, when higher prices may stop being a clear positive for Canada, and what different oil price scenarios could mean for global equities, fixed income, and commodities.

In this episode of Market Points, Patrick Dabiet, Managing Director and Co-Head of Canadian Debt Capital Markets and Government Finance, and Fadi Attia, Managing Director and Head of U.S. Debt Syndication, discuss the key forces shaping debt capital markets in 2026 for issuers and institutional investors.   Drawing on a record 2025 for issuance, they examine why liquidity and demand remain robust despite heavy supply and what this means for execution across the curve. The discussion highlights key issuance drivers including hyperscalers, M&A, and refinancing activity in an environment defined by policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and evolving dynamics across U.S. and Canadian markets.

In this special episode of Market Points, Patrick Bryden, Managing Director, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Investment Research at Scotiabank, speaks with Alex de Vries-Gao, Founder of Digiconomist, about the fast-growing energy demands of artificial intelligence. Drawing on his recent research, Alex explains the challenges of quantifying AI’s power consumption, the gaps in corporate disclosure, and the environmental implications as AI usage expands. Together, they explore how the rapid rise of AI is reshaping global electricity demand and what this means for policy, sustainability, and innovation moving forward.

In this episode of Market Points, host Nick Pocrnic, Director, Mining Sales Specialist at Scotiabank in Toronto, speaks with Alfonso Salazar Herrera, Analyst, LatAm Metals & Mining at Scotiabank Inverlat in Mexico City, about how China’s mounting industrial overcapacity is reshaping demand for key Latin American exports. From steel and iron ore to copper and pulp, they explore the knock-on effects of China’s slowing construction, shifting trade patterns, and discuss expectations around China’s upcoming five-year plan. With Latin American producers and investors squarely in the path of these structural shifts, Alfonso cautions, “if you get China wrong, you get everything wrong.”

Global trade is shifting—and the pressure is on. In the latest episode of Market Points, Dyanne Carenza, Managing Director, Global Trade & Working Capital Solutions, and Matthew Parker-Jones, Senior Vice President, International Commercial Banking, dive into the rising complexity CFOs and treasurers face across the Americas. From fractured supply chains to FX volatility, discover how Scotiabank is helping corporates build resilient, multi-regional strategies with trusted execution and advisory support.

In this episode of Market Points, Michelle Khalili, Managing Director and Global Head, Equity Capital Markets and Corporate Finance Advisory, speaks with Pete Gordon, Director, Equity Capital Markets, about the latest institutional investorsentiment toward IPOs.  Drawing from Scotiabank’s recent IPO survey of global institutional investors representing $4 trillion in assets, they discuss growing risk appetite, the return of growth as the top priority over profitability, and the strong interest in AI-driven technology. While macro uncertainty and inflation remain concerns, the outlook for the remainder of 2025 is constructive, with a robust pipeline and accelerating investor demand.

In this episode of Market Points, host Chris Kelly, Director and Head, U.S. Rates Sales, is joined by Boris Sender, Director, U.S. Rates Strategy, and Roger Quick, Director, Canadian Rates Strategy, to discuss key developments in the U.S. and Canadian rates markets. They cover the growth boost from U.S. tax cuts versus the drag from tariffs, Canada’s relative insulation from trade tensions, and shifting fiscal landscapes on both sides of the border. The team also explores central bank outlooks, implications for bond issuance, and insights on swap spreads for institutional investors and corporates navigating an evolving macro backdrop.

In this special episode of Market Points, Patrick Bryden, Managing Director and Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Investment Research at Scotiabank, presents highlights from the 7th Annual Scotiabank Sustainability Summit. Set against a backdrop of shifting geopolitics and renewed debate over the role of sustainability in global finance, the summit brought together investors, academics, and corporate leaders from around the world. With reflections from members of Scotiabank’s Sustainable Finance and Global Equity Research teams, this episode captures key moments from two days of timely and thought-provoking conversation around the future of sustainability.