Episode 420: Wrestling With Roths And 401ks, Assorted Shenanigans, And Portfolio Reviews As Of May 2, 2025

In this episode we answer emails from Anderson, Ian, FFS, and Michael.  We discuss using Roths earlier in accumulation and tax considerations, wrestling with an expensive 401k plan with limited options, and the various and sundry deficiencies of this program and its website.  Rest assured, we have "top men" working on it.  Top.  Men.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Welcome to the dive bar of personal finance, where frank conversations about investing happen without sponsors, guests, or corporate jargon. In episode 420, Frank Vasquez serves up practical wisdom alongside his signature blend of humor and no-nonsense advice.The heart of this episode centers around listener questions that reveal common investing dilemmas. When a father of six asks about Roth conversions while in a low tax bracket, Frank not only endorses the strategy but takes the opportunity to debunk widespread myths about future taxation. "The fear of future taxes is often overblown," Frank explains, noting how this anxiety is frequently exploited by financial professionals selling expensive products. He articulates why most people actually face lower tax rates in retirement—a perspective that runs counter to conventional financial advice but makes perfect mathematical sense when examining income sources and tax treatment.Another listener struggling with limited 401(k) options receives thoughtful guidance on transitioning from 100% equities to a more balanced risk parity approach. Frank's explanation of the "macro allocation principle" illuminates why focusing on the percentage of stocks across all accounts matters more than perfect diversification within any single account. His pointed criticism of target date funds—describing them as "easy but not simple"—offers a refreshing counterpoint to the retirement industry's oversimplified solutions.The episode culminates with Frank's detailed review of eight sample portfolios, revealing how diversification strategies are performing in today's volatile markets. While the S&P 500 struggles with a 3.02% year-to-date decline and small cap value plummets 13.16%, gold shines with a remarkable 23.2% gain. More importantly, the risk parity portfolios demonstrate remarkable stability compared to single-asset approaches.Whether you're considering tax strategies, rebalancing your portfolio, or simply looking for straight talk about investing, this episode delivers valuable insights without the financial industry's typical marketing hype. Subscribe, leave a review, and visit riskparityradio.com for more resources to help guide your investment journey.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Chris, Will and Neelix.  We discuss the basics of transitioning from accumulation to decumulation, choosing funds for accumulation from a limited selection, more transitioning questions from an alien, my lawyerly approach to personal finance and why the public personal finance landscape is often not very helpful and leaves much to be desired.Frank addresses listener questions about transitioning from accumulation to retirement portfolios, focusing on timing and asset allocation decisions for different life stages. The episode explores foundational concepts about when to shift to a less aggressive portfolio and how to work around investment account limitations.Links:All Podcasts On One Web Page:  Risk Parity Radio RSS FeedMerriman ETF Recommendations:  Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations | Merriman Financial Education FoundationjBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Ready to make the leap from aggressive growth investing to a more balanced retirement portfolio? Join Frank Vasquez as he breaks down one of investing's most critical transitions through thoughtful analysis of listener questions spanning different life stages and portfolio challenges.We dive deep into the essential question of timing: when should you transition from accumulation to decumulation? Unlike conventional wisdom that focuses on market conditions, Frank reveals why your personal financial readiness should be the primary consideration. Learn why calculating your Financial Independence number is crucial and why your current spending patterns offer surprisingly reliable guidance for retirement planning.For younger investors struggling with 401(k) limitations, Frank offers practical strategies to achieve optimal asset allocation across multiple account types. His clear breakdown of why certain asset classes (looking at you, small-cap growth) deserve caution while others merit emphasis provides actionable guidance regardless of your investment timeline.What sets this episode apart is Frank's candid assessment of the personal finance media landscape. Drawing from his background cross-examining financial experts, he categorizes financial content into entertainment, sales, and education - explaining why most advice falls short for those who actually plan to spend money in retirement. His Bruce Lee-inspired approach to financial wisdom - "take what is useful, discard what is useless, and add something uniquely your own" - offers a refreshing framework for cutting through the noise.Whether you're decades from retirement or counting down the years, you'll gain valuable perspective on building a portfolio strategy that serves your actual spending goals rather than following the crowd. Share your own portfolio questions at [email protected]!Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Jeff, Jenzo and Sam.  We discuss spending money on relationships, a 72(t) situation, what to do with an unused Coverdell, GDE (again), a nice risk parity write-up and some random musings about the history of free speech and communications technologies.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Jenzo's GDE Backtest:  testfol.io/?s=0SLNjC7As4bSam's Most Excellent Risk Parity Explication Blog Post:  15 Uncorrelated Assets | SSiSSam's Most Excellent Bill Of Rights Blog Post:  Boxed In | SSiSBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:When markets tumble and headlines scream doom, properly diversified portfolios reveal their quiet strength. This episode showcases exactly that phenomenon - while small cap value has plummeted 15.58% and the S&P 500 has shed 5.74% year-to-date, gold has soared a remarkable 25.87%, creating a balancing effect that keeps risk parity portfolios remarkably stable.We dive into listener Jeff's retirement strategy, examining his use of 72T distributions and exploring whether his recent RV purchase makes financial sense. The answer turns out to be more about relationships than raw numbers. Research shows expenditures that facilitate meaningful connections tend to yield the greatest happiness returns - a powerful framework for evaluating major purchases in retirement.The emerging world of composite leveraged ETFs takes center stage as we examine GDE, which combines S&P 500 exposure with gold allocation at 1.8x leverage. While innovative funds like these package risk parity principles into convenient solutions, they represent a tradeoff between simplicity and control. We explore whether these instruments belong in a sophisticated asset allocation strategy or if traditional single-asset funds still offer superior flexibility.For investors fascinated by portfolio design theory, we tackle the question of just how many truly uncorrelated assets one needs. While hedge funds and endowments might pursue 15+ distinct asset classes, diminishing returns suggest a more practical approach for individual investors. The mathematical reality shows the incremental benefit of adding that 11th or 12th asset pales in comparison to the impact of moving from one or two assets to five diverse investments.Our weekly portfolio review reveals the practical power of these principles. Despite market turmoil, most of our sample portfolios remain nearly flat or slightly positive for the year - precisely the stability risk parity promises. Whether you're just beginning your investment journey or fine-tuning an established strategy, this episode offers both theoretical frameworks and practical evidence for building resilient portfolios in uncertain times.Ready to hear more? Subscribe, leave a review, and send your questions to [email protected] the show

In this episode we answer emails from Marco Esquandolas and Multi-Family Investor.  We discuss a long-term diversified Roth portfolio for a 13-year old, modelling Delaware Statutory Trusts in a portfolio, transitioning out of an all S&P 500 allocation in a taxable account, PFIX, Sabine Royalty Trust and individual stocks in retirement portfolios, and M1 Finance.Note/Correction:  Sabine is actually NOT structured like an MLP but as a true trust and therefore issues 1099s, not K-1s like most companies in the oil & gas royalty space.Links:Shannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsIDMO vs EFG (and other international growth funds) Analysis:  testfol.io/analysis?s=4PEQ1YvTbAMBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Dive into the world of strategic portfolio building with this illuminating episode where Frank tackles questions from two distinct investors at opposite ends of the age spectrum. A father shares his 13-year-old son's Shannon's Demon-inspired portfolio that's being built for an ultra-long 50+ year time horizon, featuring a balanced approach to growth and value across both domestic and international markets. Frank offers targeted advice on fund selection while celebrating this young investor's precocious financial journey.The conversation shifts dramatically when an engineer earning $250,000-300,000 annually shares his detailed retirement strategy with hopes of financial independence before 50. With $3.4 million spread across multiple investment vehicles including real estate, this listener puzzles over how to transition to a risk parity portfolio without triggering a substantial tax bill. Frank methodically dissects several aspects of this complex situation, questioning the wisdom of backdoor Roth conversions during peak earning years and clarifying misconceptions about Delaware Statutory Trusts as bond substitutes.What makes this episode particularly valuable is Frank's blend of technical advice and practical wisdom. He cuts through complex tax and investment strategies to offer straightforward solutions - identifying tax-loss harvesting opportunities, rethinking account structures, and focusing on expenses rather than arbitrary portfolio targets. The discussion extends to specialized investments like royalty trusts and interest rate hedges, providing listeners with a masterclass in portfolio construction that balances theoretical ideals with real-world constraints.Whether you're managing investments for the next generation or planning your own early retirement, this episode delivers actionable insights on building resilient, tax-efficient portfolios tailored to your unique circumstances. The principles shared apply across market conditions and investment goals, making this essential listening for any DIY investor seeking to optimize their financial future.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from El Yama, Graham, and James.  We discuss using risk parity-style portfolios for intermediate term needs, the short-term bond allocation in the Golden Butterfly, accounting for child credit, rising equity glidepaths, the fundamental differences between 100% stock portfolios and diversified portfolios and why you want the latter for retirement unless your goal is to die with the most money, and a CAPE ratio critique from Meb Faber's podcast.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Kitces Article re Rising Glidepaths:  The Benefits Of A Rising Equity Glidepath In RetirementKitces/Pfau Paper re Rising Glidepaths:  Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide-Path by Wade D. Pfau, Michael Kitces :: SSRNMeb Faber Podcast with Brian Jacobs discussing problems with CAPE ratio predictions:  A Century of No Return! The Truth About The Beloved Bonds (Brian Jacobs of Aptus Reveals)Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds," begins this thought-provoking exploration of why most investors are trapped in accumulation-phase thinking even as they approach or enter retirement. The question at the heart of this episode strikes at a surprising disconnect in personal finance: Why do so many investors intellectually understand they're investing to enjoy retirement, yet construct portfolios clearly designed to maximize wealth at death? Through a series of illuminating listener emails, Frank unpacks how portfolios optimized for accumulation often fail spectacularly during the decumulation phase. One listener confesses he "always wondered why anyone would buy bonds when clearly stocks give a far greater return," before discovering through portfolio testing that a 100% equity portfolio would have "failed catastrophically" for someone retiring around 2000-2003.This recognition—that diversification isn't about maximizing returns but enabling sustainable withdrawals—represents the fundamental insight many investors miss until too late. As Frank colorfully puts it, if your goal is to "die with the most money possible" in your "golden coffin," then by all means stick with 90-100% equities. But if you actually intend to enjoy your retirement by spending more than 3% of your portfolio annually, a properly diversified approach becomes essential.The episode also addresses why attempts to use valuation metrics like CAPE ratios to predict market movements have largely failed, and why separating your portfolio into growth and value components offers a more reliable approach to capturing rebalancing bonuses without attempting market timing.Make sure your investment behavior actually matches your stated goals. If you're planning to spend in retirement, construct a portfolio that optimizes for sustainable withdrawals, not maximum theoretical returns.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Corn Pop, Dustin and Jim.  We discuss annuities for elderly parents, TIPS ladders in retirement, REITs in small cap value funds, currency speculation, the GDE fund (again) and an aggressive portfolio construction.Link:Interview of Michael Kitces Re Problems With TIPS Ladders:  Michael Kitces: How Higher Yields Affect Asset Allocation and Retirement Planning | MorningstarBreathless and Promotional AI-Bot Summary:Dive into the mailbag as Frank tackles complex investment questions with his signature blend of expertise and pop culture references. This episode unpacks several critical financial planning dilemmas that challenge conventional wisdom.First, Frank examines when annuities make sense for elderly parents, explaining how health prospects and longevity expectations should guide this decision. For those likely to outlive actuarial tables, annuities can provide financial value and simplify management—but they're far from universally beneficial. Frank introduces Qualified Longevity Annuity Contracts (QLACs) as a strategic option for those concerned about funding long-term care in their later years.The conversation shifts to a provocative take on TIPS ladders, with Frank describing long-term ladders as "a flex for hoarders" rather than necessary financial tools. He argues these complicated structures work best for defined periods with specific purposes—like bridging to Social Security—not as decades-long income vehicles that will inevitably be either too long or too short for your actual lifespan.Currency speculation, Bitcoin, and aggressive portfolio construction round out the episode's explorations. Frank explains how currency exposure already exists implicitly in international stocks and gold without dedicated speculation, evaluates an aggressive portfolio with substantial Bitcoin allocation, and questions whether dividend stocks belong in accumulation strategies.Throughout, Frank balances technical analysis with practical wisdom, reminding listeners that personalized investment approaches must account for individual circumstances rather than following generic advice. Whether you're managing a retirement portfolio or building wealth, you'll gain valuable perspective on how the finest investment strategies align with your actual needs rather than theoretical ideals.Want your questions answered on a future episode? Email [email protected] and don't forget to subscribe and leave a review!Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Jeremy, Brad, and James.  We discuss a more aggressive risk-parity portfolio similar to the Weird Portfolio, the problems with data analysis and recency bias and considerations in accounting for Social Security or pensions in retirement portfolio planning.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Jeremy's Portfolio on Portfolio Visualizer:  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=LDhLHuhVF5zOKfTZckLT7Weird Portfolio:  Weird Portfolio – Portfolio ChartsTestfolio Portfolio Comparison (90/10 vs. 50/50):  https://testfol.io/?s=2TDnqWEw5FEBogle Interview (re Social Security):  Jack Bogle on Index Funds, Vanguard, and Investing AdviceKitces Interview (re Social Security):  Social Security: Part of Your Asset Allocation?Breathless AI-Bot Summary:  "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds," begins this episode, capturing the essence of breaking away from conventional investment thinking. Stepping into Frank's metaphorical "dive bar of personal finance," listeners are treated to an exploration of portfolio diversification during turbulent market conditions.Frank tackles three thought-provoking listener questions that challenge common investing assumptions. First, he analyzes a balanced portfolio proposal with equal allocations to large-cap growth, small-cap value, REITs, long-term treasuries, and gold, explaining why this more aggressive risk parity approach shows promising safe withdrawal rates. The conversation shifts to the dangers of recency bias when a listener questions the underperformance of a 50-50 small-cap value/large-cap growth portfolio over just five years. Frank emphasizes that even a decade of data can be "just noise" when evaluating investment strategies, reminding us to focus on performance during challenging market periods rather than recent returns.Perhaps most compelling is Frank's fresh perspective on integrating Social Security into financial planning. Challenging the notion that Social Security should be viewed as fixed-income allocation, he suggests treating it more like an annuity that reduces expenses rather than an asset within your portfolio. This shifts the conversation from wealth preservation to life maximization, encouraging retirees to consider increasing discretionary spending rather than hoarding assets.The weekly portfolio review reveals a fascinating market story: while the S&P 500 has fallen 8.64% year-to-date and small-cap value has plummeted 19.69%, gold has surged 23.12%. This perfect illustration of risk parity principles shows how properly diversified portfolios maintain remarkable stability despite individual asset volatility. The unlevered sample portfolios remain down less than 1% year-to-date, demonstrating the power of hearing that "different drummer" when constructing your investment approach.Have questions about building your own diversified portfolio? Email [email protected] or visit the website to connect directly. Don't forget to subscribe and leave a review wherever you listen to podcasts!Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Harry, Sally, Jack and Javon.  We discuss recovering from financial set-backs, my life on the Choose FI board, assets that do well in inflationary environments and large cap growth funds like MGK in Merriman-type portfolios.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterMindset by Carol Dweck:  Mindset: The New Psychology of Success by Carol S. Dweck | GoodreadsBloomberg Presentation On Investments In Inflationary Environments:  MH201-SteveHou-Bloomberg.pdfShannon's Demon Article from Portfolio Charts:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsTestfolio Analysis of MGK and other funds:  testfol.io/analysis?s=lbssElueG9DAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:When financial disaster strikes, where do you turn? In this deeply empathetic episode, Frank Vasquez responds to a listener who's lost nearly everything through leveraged investments caught in market turmoil. His compassionate yet practical response offers a roadmap back from financial devastation, emphasizing that starting from net worth zero with income potential creates a foundation many successful investors have built upon.The conversation shifts to examining the psychology behind financial social media, where Frank taxonomizes poster behaviors into revealing categories. From genuine question-askers to Dunning-Kruger sufferers repeating harmful advice from financial media marketing materials disguised as guidance, this analysis helps listeners navigate confusing information landscapes. His take on affirmation-seekers posting humble brags or seeking validation for poor decisions provides particular insight into why certain destructive financial ideas persist online.With inflation concerns mounting due to potential tariffs and immigration restrictions, Frank offers practical portfolio protection strategies beyond traditional TIPS, which merely help investors tread water rather than outperform during inflationary periods. His breakdown of managed futures, commodities, value-tilted stocks in hard assets, and property/casualty insurance companies provides actionable alternatives. The discussion culminates in comparing investment theorist Paul Merriman's value-tilted ETF recommendations with Frank's diversification approach using Shannon's Demon principles, demonstrating how different philosophical frameworks can lead to successful long-term investing.What distinguishes this episode is Frank's ability to balance technical expertise with emotional intelligence, offering not just investment strategies but wisdom about resilience and perspective during financial hardship. Whether you're recovering from losses or preparing for economic uncertainty, this episode delivers both tactical guidance and reassuring wisdom from someone who's weathered financial storms himself.Have questions? Connect at [email protected] or through the website contact form. Please like, subscribe, and share with fellow investors seeking thoughtful financial guidance.Support the show

In this episode we answer emails from Ron, Iain, an Anonymous Visitor and Mr. Data.  We discuss Ron's generosity and his variable or guardrails withdrawal strategy, some helpful British website references, what we use bonds for in these portfolio and how the TSP G fund fits into that, and small cap growth vs. small cap value stocks.  And some notes on recent market turmoil.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterPortfolio Charts Retirement Spending:  Retirement Spending – Portfolio ChartsMonevator Quilt Chart:  Asset allocation quilt – the winners and losers of the last 10 years - Monevator Just ETF (UK) Page:  ETF portfolios made simpleShannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Market crashes reveal the true value of diversification. While Professor Jeremy Siegel called last week's events "the worst policy mistake in US economic history in the last 95 years," properly structured portfolios weathered the storm remarkably well.The recent market plunge shows exactly why risk parity strategies work—the S&P 500 dropped 13.3%, NASDAQ fell 17.2%, but our All Seasons portfolio remained flat for the year. This divergence creates powerful rebalancing opportunities that can enhance long-term returns.Looking at performance across asset classes reveals a classic recession pattern: falling stocks, rising treasury bonds, and initial panic selling followed by differentiated recoveries. Long-term Treasury bonds (VGLT) are up 7.2% for the year, demonstrating their crucial diversification role during market stress. Gold, despite some wobbles, remains up 15.7% year-to-date.The mathematical principle behind this outperformance is what Claude Shannon described as "Shannon's Demon"—when assets perform differently at different times, periodic rebalancing allows the portfolio to outperform any individual component. This explains why we maintain exposure to both growth and value styles, rather than trying to predict which will outperform next.For DIY investors, this market correction offers valuable lessons about portfolio construction. Understanding why you hold each asset—whether for stability, income, or diversification—is far more important than chasing yields. The Golden Butterfly portfolio, with its balanced approach across stocks, bonds, and gold, is only down 1.78% year-to-date while continuing to provide consistent distributions.Want to learn more about building resilient portfolios? Visit riskparityradio.com for sample portfolios and detailed resources, or email your questions to [email protected] the show

In this episode we answer emails from Michael, Brian and Ed.  We discuss Michael's situation and options as a 34-year old with growing portfolios and a growing family, Brian's questions about the infernal Cederburg paper that won't go away and Ed's questions about accumulation portfolios.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterTestfolio Comparison between Total Market and Large Cap Growth:  testfol.io/analysis?s=0GbmPE8D9GKMerriman Best In Class ETFs:  Best-in-Class ETF Recommendations | Merriman Financial Education FoundationShannon's Demon Article:  Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsRational Reminder Podcast #350:  Episode 350 - Scott Cederburg: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice — Rational ReminderAn Actually Useful Analysis of Global Portfolios:  What Global Withdrawal Rates Teach Us About Ideal Retirement Portfolios – Portfolio ChartsBrian's Golden Butterfly Monte Carlo:  Monte Carlo SimulationBrian's All Equity 50/50 Monte Carlo:  Monte Carlo SimulationBrian's All Equity 34/66 Monte Carlo:  Monte Carlo SimulationAmusing Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Frank Vasquez tackles the complex world of portfolio construction across different life stages, offering practical wisdom mixed with his trademark humor for investors at all levels. This episode dives deep into a $1 million portfolio review, addressing how to balance real estate investments with securities, manage excess cash, and prepare for eventual retirement.A key highlight is Frank's thorough debunking of a frequently misunderstood academic study suggesting all-equity portfolios are optimal for retirement. With mathematical clarity, he explains why the study's unusual methodology comparing non-reserve currency bonds to U.S. equities across disconnected historical periods doesn't translate to practical investment advice. His Monte Carlo simulation comparisons confirm that diversified portfolios consistently outperform all-equity approaches during drawdown scenarios.The episode offers particularly valuable insights on pairing large-cap growth with small-cap value investments – not because either category is predicted to outperform, but because they create effective rebalancing pairs operating on different cycles while delivering similar long-term returns. This mathematical principle, known as Shannon's demon, shows how two assets with comparable returns but different timing can outperform either investment held alone.For younger investors still accumulating wealth, Frank recommends focusing on equity exposure while avoiding unnecessary complexity. His practical advice extends to managing investments across different account types, structuring 401(k) investments with limited options, and maintaining psychological fortitude through market cycles. Whether you're managing a complex portfolio or just starting youSupport the show