225. US Utilities vs Hyperscalers - Apr26

In episode 219, we analysed the relationship between hyperscalers and US utilities from the hyperscaler perspective. To complete the picture, we revisit the debate from the utility’s point of view.Gerard and Laurent welcome Rajiv Bazaj, VP of Solutions Sales at Constellation, to understand how utilities approach this rapidly evolving landscape. Spun out of Exelon a few years ago, Constellation was initially seen as the “ugly duckling,” but it was sitting on a major advantage: a large nuclear fleet. What was considered a liability in the 2010s has become a strategic asset as hyperscalers search for clean, reliable 24/7 power.The acquisition of Calpine and its large CCGT fleet turned Constellation into the largest US utility in terms of capacity, with around 60 GW (half nuclear, half gas) and roughly 200 TWh of annual generation—placing the company at the centre of discussions with hyperscalers and data centre developers.Constellation’s approach remains cautious. The company is only gradually moving into batteries, is bullish on demand response following the surge in PJM capacity prices and is exploring upgrades to its nuclear fleet while remaining sceptical about. Geothermal. where the Company is active, is attractive but seen as difficult to scale.The overall picture is one of disciplined conservatism. Constellation cannot easily be pushed by aggressive data centre developers because it already has the right generation mix at the right time. Its core objective is simple: maximise fleet load factors and sell MWh at the highest possible price. Gas assets operate in the mid-merit order with strong spark spreads, while nuclear requires higher long-term prices to justify further investment, as illustrated by the Microsoft-supported Three Mile Island restart.With around 90% of its capacity built in the 20th century, Constellation is focused on upgrading and optimising its existing fleet rather than pursuing large-scale expansion. For hyperscalers, understanding this mindset is key when engaging with utilities.

Laurent and Gerard sit down with Paul O’Donnell, Partner at SchrodersGreencoat, a fund manager that has invested more than €13 billion and controls over 400 renewable energy assets across Europe, the Americas, and Asia. Paul has spent 17 years at Greencoat and became Partner in 2022, following Schroders’ acquisition of the platform, which itself was acquired by Nuveen in 2026. Greencoat has a distinctive structure, as it manages listed vehicles—historically known as YieldCos—designed to provide stable dividends to investors through long-term infrastructure assets.  The discussion begins with a deep dive into the evolution of the renewable energy sector over the past 10–15 years. The market has shifted from portfolios primarily backed by government-supported contracts to a more dynamic growth strategy built on active portfolio management, trading, power purchase agreements (PPAs) with hyperscalers, and the hybridisation of assets. A key milestone in this evolution has been the push toward vertical integration, illustrated by partnerships such as the Greencoat collaboration with CATL.  The conversation also explores the growing convergence between energy investors and real estate or digital infrastructure investors, particularly in the financing of datacenters. Energy supply and cooling infrastructure are becoming increasingly critical components of data centre investment strategies. While off-grid solutions are sometimes feasible in the United States—typically involving off-grid power combined with on-grid gas—such options remain very limited in Europe.Datacenters geography is also evolving. First-generation facilities were typically located close to major load centres and urban demand hubs, whereas second-generation developments are moving further away from large cities to areas where land and power availability are more abundant. This shift is driving strong interest in brownfield sites, including former coal plants, steel mills, and refineries.  The transition from a pure yield model to a growth-oriented strategy has been well received by the market, particularly after several years of lacklustre share price performance. This approach mirrors the playbook seen at Quinbrook and Intersect and is increasingly viewed as the winning strategy in the current market environment.  

Gerard is invited by Ana Conde from PVcase to make the case for solar paired with storage as the economic foundation of the future energy system.We are in the midst of a technological revolution driven by electrification and AI. But building the energy system that can power this shift requires more than adding new capacity — it demands system-level thinking, new coordination mechanisms, and new financial models to ensure a smooth transition.They explore how solar moved from a niche technology to the backbone of modern energy infrastructure and why pairing it with storage is no longer optional for project bankability and long-term competitiveness.They discuss how grid outages act as warning signals, exposing the fragility of legacy infrastructure, and what that implies for resilience in an increasingly electrified world.The conversation also examines the economic incentives, institutional inertia, and behavioural forces that resist technological change — and how innovative business models are beginning to unlock faster adoption.This episode goes beyond viewing solar as a technology alone. It unpacks the economics and coordination required to build a resilient, low-cost energy system capable of supporting the AI-driven future.--An episode delivered in partnership with SolarPower Europe. SolarPower Europe has established the ‘Battery Storage Europe Platform’ (advocacy, COMs campaigning, networking) around battery storage. Companies should join as members to help us push messages on solar, flexibility and batteries https://www.batterystorageeurope.org/

Laurent and Gerard speak with Dr. Michal Meidan, Head of China Energy Research at the China Energy Research Programme at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, about the profound transformation reshaping China’s energy system. At the heart of the discussion is the country’s pivot from “molecules” to “electrons” — a structural shift from fossil fuels toward electrification powered by renewables, batteries, and electric mobility. This transition is not just about decarbonization; it represents a broader industrial and technological reconfiguration with global consequences. At the same time, China remains central to fossil fuel markets: it is the world's largest fossil fuel importer and is set to maintain that position for the rest of this decade and beyond.  Still the recent events in the Strait of Hormuz have vindicated China’s energy policy of diversification, investment and strategic storage.  China’s approach reflects a distinctive “dual track” model in which command-and-control planning coexists with market dynamics. Central government frameworks, including the recent 15th Five-Year Plan, set strategic direction, while provinces interpret and implement policy with varying degrees of alignment or competition. At times collaborative and at times antagonistic, the relationship between Beijing and local authorities shapes how targets are pursued and reported. China often reframes its narrative retrospectively, particularly where electric vehicles and battery production have dramatically surpassed official expectations, highlighting the interplay between state ambition and private-sector execution.  At the same time, the transition has been propelled by powerful entrepreneurial forces. Leaders such as Robin Zheng of CATL and Stella Li of BYD embody the “animal spirits” that have driven innovation and scale in batteries and electric vehicles. In many cases, private firms have exceeded policy goals, complicating simplistic narratives of top-down control and demonstrating how state guidance and commercial dynamism reinforce one another.  Energy security remains a central pillar of this strategy. The current Hormuz crisis as well as the power shortages of 2020–2022 have exposed vulnerabilities in China’s system and reinforced the leadership’s determination to build integrated domestic supply chains and reduce reliance on imported fuels and critical materials. Industrial policy and energy policy are deeply intertwined, with electrification, renewables, and advanced manufacturing serving both resilience and competitiveness objectives. The drive for clean technology is therefore as much about strategic autonomy as it is about environmental stewardship.  Finally, the episode also addresses persistent misconceptions in Europe and the United States about China’s system, challenging both exaggerated fears and wishful thinking. Understanding China’s energy transition requires grappling with its internal tensions, strategic pragmatism, and the scale of its ambitions.  Oxford Institute https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/disruption-in-the-strait-of-hormuz-implications-for-chinas-energy-markets-and-policies/  Carbon Brief and Lauri Myllyvirta    15FYP coverage https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-chinas-15th-five-year-plan-mean-for-climate-change/  Latest on China emisisons https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-21-months/  Impact on GDP https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-drove-more-than-a-third-of-chinas-gdp-growth-in-2025/

Gerard and Laurent host Ira Joseph, a leading expert on gas and LNG markets at the Columbia Center on Global Energy, to explore how the Middle East conflict is reshaping the industry.In normal times, LNG supply is led by Qatar, the U.S., and Australia, with prices anchored to benchmarks like Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM. Before the war, markets were relatively well supplied, keeping prices stable.Three weeks into the conflict, that balance has shifted. Brent crude has climbed to about $110, European gas (TTF) to around $20/MMBtu, while U.S. Henry Hub remains near $3—highlighting growing regional divergence driven by infrastructure and trade flows.Two views have emerged: the White House sees a temporary disruption, while analysts like Jeff Currie and James Gutman argue this is a structural supply shock—captured by the idea that “you can’t print molecules.”The impact is uneven. Europe is highly exposed, Asia faces rising competition for cargoes, and emerging markets risk being priced out. The U.S. remains relatively insulated but increasingly vital as a supplier. Massive damage to key Gulf infrastructure such as South Pars and Ras Laffan will disrupt flows for months if not years.In response, short-term measures include stock releases, more coal production and demand cuts. Longer term the crisis may spur new LNG investment, accelerate energy security efforts, and boost the development of renewables while further fragmenting global markets.The takeaway: this is not just another cycle, but a structural shift in the future of energy.ReferencesHC Group podcasts with Paul Chapmanhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/4FelokgY7oWXMxwyv75N0D?si=SgGNX7S_RZuFnry5Ckdi_Qhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/6bOCstN1chwOmB16u5SvRU?si=mu9PEjU9QQqvSHSmXlTafgOn LNG. Ira Joseph papershttps://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/us-israeli-attacks-on-iran-and-global-energy-impacts/

Six years after her last appearance on the podcast (Episode 28, 15 June 2020), Natasha Luther-Jones  returns to join Laurent and Gerard for a lively catch-up on how both her career and the energy sector have evolved. What began with her being dubbed the “Queen of PPA” has expanded into a far broader role — prompting the hosts to crown her the “Energy Empress” as she now operates across the full spectrum of global energy and infrastructure.  Natasha reflects on the evolution as the Global co-chair in the Energy & Natural Resources practice at DLA Piper, describing how client demand has shifted from single-asset transactions to complex, multi-technology, cross-border platforms. The market has matured significantly, with renewables now firmly established as mainstream infrastructure and capital becoming more disciplined and selective.  A major growth area is battery energy storage systems (BESS), which have moved from being an adjunct to renewables to a core investment thesis in their own right. Storage, hybridisation and co-location strategies are reshaping project design, while revenue stacking and merchant exposure are demanding more sophisticated structuring and risk management.  On the M&A front, Natasha highlights sustained deal activity and strong valuations for scaled platforms and development pipelines. The market is firmly in a consolidation phase, with investors prioritising portfolio and platform transactions over single-asset deals. Innovative financing models, including holdco structures and cross-collateralisation across diversified portfolios, are increasingly replacing traditional asset-by-asset project finance.  The conversation also turns to the accelerating demand from AI-driven datacentres and the growing integration of digital infrastructure within energy complexes. As power demand surges, particularly for firm and clean energy, the convergence of energy and technology is creating new investment models and strategic partnerships — signalling that the next chapter of the energy transition will be defined as much by integration and capital structuring as by capacity build-out.

While Gerard is fixing his knee, Laurent invites Chris Seiple, Vice Chairman of WoodMac Power & Renewables group, to try to make sense of the scale of the coming power demand surge and the strain it is placing on today’s US market structures.AI-driven datacenter growth is pushing the US power system into uncharted territory. Roughly 180 GW of U.S. electricity commitments tied to datacenters represent about 30% incremental demand. Hyperscaler CAPEX is exploding. Demand is accelerating far faster than new supply can come online, setting up a near-term imbalance. In response, the U.S. utility sector is preparing for a potential $1.4 trillion investment supercycle over the next five years.In regulated markets, utilities are under pressure to modernize cost-of-service models and deliver massive capital programs while keeping electricity affordable. Companies such as Duke Energy, Southern Company, Entergy, and CenterPoint Energy are planning investments that run into the hundreds of billions.In deregulated markets, players like Constellation Energy, Vistra Corp., and NRG Energy face a structural mismatch: datacenters can be built faster than power plants, while price signals may not rise quickly enough to incentivize new generation. Some customers are exploring off-grid solutions, but these bring technical and economic challenges.The conclusion is clear: load growth is staggering. Parts of the system may move toward re-regulation, but that alone will not be enough. Rapid innovation—decentralized solutions, grid-enhancing technologies, faster interconnections, and deeper digitization—will be essential as utilities relearn how to build at scale and speed.  Check an excellent WoodMac report on the Datacentershttps://www.woodmac.com/horizons/us-data-centre-power-demand-challenges-electricity-market-model/  

Last month, Gerard Reid joined Shayle Kann, Managing Partner at Energy Impact Partners, for a world class and fast-moving conversation on the state and future of Climate Tech.   The discussion was organised by Carbon Equity and led by its co-founder Liza Rubinstein Malamud.Originally it featured a third guest, Will Dufton of Giant Ventures, whose contributions were fully edited for this episode (with apologies — and an open invitation to return).  First strong statement: the Silicon Valley-style climate tech era of 2021–2022 is over. Gerard is clear that carbon removal and hydrogen, at least as they were framed and funded during the hype cycle, are effectively dead. What comes now is a far more grounded, infrastructure-driven view of the transition.  Both guests are emphatically bullish on energy and AI. Shayle especially sees climate tech not as a standalone vertical, but as a horizontal that cuts across the entire economy. Anything that supports electrification, datacenters, and energy-hungry digital infrastructure represents a major opportunity. Gerard pushes the horizon even further, imagining datacenters in space.  A central theme is the convergence of AI and the physical world. Shayle argues that as large language models become commoditised, value will move from bits to atoms — from software to real-world systems, infrastructure, and industrial processes. Gerard complements this with a strong emphasis on resilience, positioning it as a defining investment lens for the coming decade.  On batteries, there is rare and total agreement. Both see them as the most important technology of our time, underpinning electrification, grid stability, transport, and the scaling of renewables.  What emerges is an intense, wide-ranging exchange between two of the sharpest minds in the energy transition — a true Battle Royale on where climate, energy, and technology are heading next.  You can watch the hour-long video here: https://youtu.be/H5YE1Upe0JI?si=HlgHKFOOjZj8Gygp    

Lithium has doubled in three months. Copper is printing record highs. Silver went vertical—then collapsed. The move was fast. The reversals were faster. Volatility isn’t elevated. It’s systemic.  But this isn’t just another commodity cycle. These metals sit at the core of the energy transition. They’re embedded in batteries, EVs, transmission lines, datacenters, wind turbines, and solar modules. When they move, the entire transition complex moves with them.  So, what are we really looking at? Is this a positioning squeeze in thin markets? Or the early tremors of a structural repricing?  The divide is clear. At The Carlyle Group, Jeff Currie argues we’re only “on the foothills of the Himalayas” — the early stage of a structural supercycle driven by electrification, grid build-out, and constrained supply. Ed Morse pushes back. High prices cure high prices. Capital flows. Supply responds. Markets rebalance. Cycles end the way they always have. Two very different frameworks. One structural. One cyclical.  To cut through the noise, Laurent and Gerard sit down with Matt Fernley, Managing Director at Battery Materials Review and Partner at RK Equity. They dissect what’s actually driving these rallies — inventory tightness, permitting bottlenecks, capital discipline, geopolitics, demand elasticity.  They confront the supply question head-on: Can new production realistically catch up — on time, on budget, and at scale? And they explore the technologies that could reshape the curve — from the re-emergence of direct lithium extraction (DLE) to the accelerating development of sodium-ion batteries.  This isn’t just about price volatility. It’s about whether the energy transition is entering a new cost regime. Because if these inputs are structurally repricing, everything downstream changes. And if they aren’t — the unwind could be just as violent.----Link to the report by the Volta Foundationhttps://volta.foundation/battery-report-2025/

Clean Energy equities have comfortably outperformed the major indices in 2025.  Laurent and Gerard are joined by friend of the show Shanu Mathew, an equity portfolio manager everyone in the sector knows to unpack what’s really driving this performance.  We begin by putting recent returns into a longer-term context — and by flagging an important caveat: some of the strongest results are coming from highly concentrated portfolios.  Shanu makes a critical distinction that often gets blurred in market commentary: equipment providers versus sellers of electrons. On one side sit companies like GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Schneider Electric, Caterpillar — and the surprise guest, Bloom Energy. On the other are utilities and IPPs. The divergence is striking. Equipment manufacturers have gone ballistic; utilities have performed, but at a far more pedestrian pace.  The difference, unsurprisingly, is pricing power. Equipment suppliers — particularly those insulated from Chinese competition — have been able to push through aggressive price increases, turbocharged by surging demand from Hyperscalers. Utilities, by contrast, remain constrained by regulation, public scrutiny, and political pressure.  The result? Hyperscalers are increasingly looking to self-generation: reciprocating engines, fuel cells, and a growing enthusiasm for frontier technologies such as Enhanced Geothermal and Small Modular Reactors.  We walk through these alternatives, examine how public markets are valuing them today, and end where every cycle eventually leads us: Are we in a bubble? Or, as Chuck Prince, then CEO of Citigroup, famously put it on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis:“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”