185. Blackouts - Jul25

What Really Happened During the Iberian Blackout This Spring? And How Should We Make Sense of the Conflicting Reports?  To shed light on the events, Gerard and Laurent are joined by global energy expert Steve Berberich, who served as President and CEO of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) from 2011 to 2020. Steve led CAISO through the August 2020 blackout in California and now serves as President and CEO of Onward Energy.  We begin by placing the Iberian blackout in a broader context—comparing and contrasting it with major grid failures from recent years: South Australia 2016, California 2020, Texas Uri 2021, Ireland 2024, Louisiana 2025 and of course Iberia 2025.  We examine both the long-term systemic weaknesses and short-term triggering events behind each case—identifying patterns, divergences, and the reforms that followed in their aftermath. Then we turn our full attention to Spain.   Unlike the other blackouts, the Iberian event did not stem from extreme weather. Instead, Steve—along with Gerard and Laurent—dives deep into the underlying structural vulnerabilities of the Spanish grid.  From regulatory gaps and design flaws to operational mistakes, we scrutinize the entire system and arrive at a set of clear, evidence-based conclusions.  Link to Gerard’s substack https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/spains-grid-blame-blackouts-bureaucracy-gerard-reid-tiqre/  Link to the Energy Institute Report https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review

Six years ago, Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence shook the world in a now legendary testimony in front of the US Senate. Then, Simon predicted the exponential growth of batteries and the control that China was starting to exert of the supply chains.Fast forward today, we bring in, Caspar Rawles, Simon’s trusted lieutenant, and COO of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence to assess how Simon’s predictions panned out. What was prophetic and what never materialized. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a London-based Price Reporting Agency (PRA) founded in 2014, specializes in lithium-ion battery and EV supply chains, offering IOSCO-accredited price assessments, supply-demand forecasts, ESG analytics, consultancy, global events, and policy influence.It focuses on critical minerals and recently expanded with Rho Motion, valued at $500M. Caspar talks about the growth of BMI, about the importance of its agreement with ICE, and how he sees the future.Laurent and Gerard conclude on Lithium and Rare Earths. Not really what you expect.

Laurent remembers vividly his trip to Sofia Bulgaria in winter 2009 when the Russians had cut the gas for Bulgaria during a -15C winter. Russia was already playing hard ball because of (guess what) a financial disagreement with Ukraine. The blackmail lasted 3 weeks, and the poor Bulgarians were cutting the trees from their equivalent of Hyde Park or Central Park not to freeze to death.    Lots of progress has been made since then, and Eastern Europe is an emerging bright spot of development for Renewables. It is not just about Economics but also about Security of Supply. We bring in Dimitar Enchev, Cofounder & CEO Europe at CWP - a global renewable energy company, behind some of the largest projects in Southeast Europe.  CWP has been active since 2007 and developed the largest projects in Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, including Europe’s largest onshore wind farm for 10 years – a 600MW project in Romania and has now partnered with Mercuria, one of the largest energy trading houses in the world. They discuss how Eastern Europe felt the largest blunt of Russia’s Energy War and how they have been accustomed to living, surviving and thriving with a hostile and aggressive neighbour, always prompt to weaponize energy. Is Europe “bringing a knife to a gunfight” when it comes to countering Russia?We explain how opportunities have risen from this difficult environment and how the decorrelation of wind and solar between the East and West of the Continent, and a continuous integration with the global European Grid creates significant investment opportunities. It is about Transmission, Resilience, Hybridization and digitization.

We have recently witnessed spectacular black outs: South Australia 2016, Texas Uri 2021, California 2020-21-25 and Iberia 2025. We are not even mentioning fragile grids in the Global South.  We will do an episode on those blackouts later this year.The U.S. electrical grid, now over a century old, struggles to meet modern demands. Utilities are slow to adapt, and supply chains are congested, posing challenges for accommodating new load developments like datacenters and AI while ensuring reliable, affordable power for existing customers.Jereme Kent, an engineer with practical expertise, is tackling these issues head-on. As the leader of One Power (an Ohio-based industrial power company) Kent champions customer-centric, decarbonized power grids. One Power delivers innovative, renewable-focused energy solutions, empowering industrial clients to manage costs and emissions through on-site wind power, EV charging hubs, and other advanced infrastructure. This approach challenges the outdated utility model, embodying a "Utility 2.0" vision.A key innovation lies in transformer design: shifting from bespoke to modular, standardized systems to enhance efficiency and scalability. Kent also highlights the advantages of renewable energy, noting that power purchase agreements (PPAs) for renewables can extend up to 20 years, compared to just three years for gas. Additionally, small behind-the-meter batteries play a critical role in stabilizing energy supply and optimizing costs.Digital tools and software are another focus, where Kent offers unexpected insights, emphasizing practical, streamlined solutions over complex systems. He points to SMUD, a progressive utility in Sacramento, California, as a model for grid management. SMUD’s forward-thinking strategies have yielded impressive results, setting a benchmark for others to follow.In the realm of transformer technology, Kent advocates for "dumb simplicity," inspired by the German motto “Stumpf ist Trumpf” (simple is best). Surprisingly, he notes that animal interference, such as birds, is a leading cause of transformer failures, underscoring the need for robust, straightforward designs.To borrow from the Rolling Stones, “You can’t always get what you want, but you might just get what you need.” Kent’s pragmatic innovations are paving the way for a resilient, sustainable energy future.    We thank Abloco Energy, premier European lessor of mobile batteries, for supporting the show.

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) recently released a widely publicized report titled “The Climate Paradox”, which has garnered significant positive attention from outlets such as the Guardian, the BBC, the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and much of the European press.Beginning with the statement, “Climate action has reached an impasse,” the report, authored by Lindy Fursman (who holds a PhD in Sociology from UC Berkeley), outlines several key “facts” that have been effectively debunked by experts like Michael Liebreich in his Substack and Michael Barnard in Cleantechnica.The TBI concludes with a series of recommendations, the most prominent being the call to “accelerate and scale technologies that capture carbon, alongside significant investments in engineered carbon-dioxide removal technologies, including direct air capture (DAC) solutions”. To emphasize this message, the cover of TBI’s report features an image of Climeworks’ plant in Iceland. Climeworks, a Swiss engineering company with 500 employees, has received $800 million in equity and subsidies from major players such as Partners Group, the GIC (Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund), Baillie Gifford (an early investor in Tesla), Swiss Re, and Microsoft.However, last week, Climeworks faced a major setback when it was revealed that despite receiving substantial funding, the company had only captured 105 tonnes of CO2—not 105,000, but just 105 tonnes (less than a single flight London – New York) —despite the strong backing of tech giants like Stripe, Microsoft and Shopify.This revelation has sparked widespread concern and warranted a prompt discussion with Laurent Segalen, Gerard Reid and Michael Barnard to assess the implications. The conversation will explore the credibility of the TBI’s stance on energy, the broader potential of DAC, and whether this technology is, in fact, a case of "Deception, Amateurism, and Con."Links:Michael Liebreich substack:https://mliebreich.substack.com/p/why-tony-blair-needs-to-reset-hisMichael Barnard Cleantechnicahttps://cleantechnica.com/2025/05/05/tony-blairs-new-climate-reset-report-promotes-delay-not-action/https://cleantechnica.com/2025/05/15/climeworks-dac-fiscal-collapse-the-brutal-reality-of-pulling-carbon-from-the-sky/

KKR is a Private Equity giant whose involvement in the Energy/Infrastructure sector has grown bigger over the decades. Energy/Infrastructure investments now represents approx 10% of their global Asset under Management of c.700bnUSD.KKR’s approach combines several strategies which are developed in different vehicles from run of the mill yield funds to more risky platforms. Since the beginning of the decade, KKR has invested billions in the acquisitions of assets in the sector (Zenobe, Avantus, Albioma, Contour Global, Actis, Ignis, SMS, Acciona, Encavis, EGC, Eni biofuels) plus a special agreement to develop AI with ECP.Laurent and Gerard have the pleasure and privilege to invite Emmanuel Lagarrigue, Partner and co-head of Global Climate at KKR, who co-runs this global effort. Prior joining KKR in 2022, Emmanuel had a 27 years stellar career at Schneider Electric where he ended up leading the Group Strategy. Under his tenure, Schneider Electric’s shares grew tenfold.What is KKR’s strategy, how can it provide returns in this volatile environment, how to foster synergies inside its portfolio, where are the next big trends they are looking at? Emmanuel also discusses how private markets and public markets differ when it comes to asset valuations, how to deal with volatility, how much energy growth will be triggered by datacenters and finally what he thinks about Hydrogen and ”Green Premiums”.A ”tour de force” from one of the most prominent Energy investor on the planet.

On one hand, tariffs are causing significant disruption in the global automotive industry. On the other, the electric vehicle (EV) market continues to surge, seemingly unaffected. According to the latest Q1 2025 data from Rho Motion, 4.1 million EVs were sold globally in Q1 2025—a 29% year-over-year increase compared to Q1 2024. Growth is particularly strong in China (+36%), followed by Europe (+22%) and North America (+16%).To help make sense of these opposing dynamics—and to assess which OEMs are likely to lead or fall behind—Laurent and Gerard have brought in a top-tier expert: Michael J. Dunne. Michael is the CEO of Dunne Insights LLC, a San Diego-based firm specializing in electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and battery supply chains. With over three decades of experience, Michael has held prominent roles including President of General Motors Indonesia and Managing Director of JD Power China. He is also the author of American Wheels, Chinese Roads (2011), and the host of the podcast Driving With Dunne.Key Insights from Our Conversation:China: BYD reigns supreme, followed by legacy brands, tech giants, and emerging players.Japan: Toyota, the shogun of the market, stands tall—while the rest struggle to keep up.Korea: A tale of strong potential under threat.Germany: VW appears stuck in reverse, Mercedes feels increasingly "Chinese," and BMW navigates a narrow path.USA: Stellantis, Ford, and GM—industries in limbo, often described as “zombies.”The Wild Card: Tesla. With Elon at the helm, anything is possible—genius or chaos.Across all regions, we forecast who the likely winners are, who may barely survive, and who seem destined for the dustbin of history.

Laurent and Gerard sit down for an in-depth (and at times fiery) conversation with Ben Backwell, Chair of the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), to unpack the current state of the wind industry. Ben joins from Brazil, where preparations for COP30 are already underway.As GWEC has just released its flagship Global Wind Report 2025—a must-read for anyone serious about the energy transition—they reflect on wind power’s progress. While the sector has continued to grow, it's been outpaced by solar and storage, grappling with supply chain bottlenecks, technical hurdles, and an all-out culture war driven by fossil fuel interests and political headwinds.The discussion covers the recent struggles of the U.S. offshore wind sector.We also dive into China’s meteoric rise, now dominating two-thirds of the global wind market with players like Goldwind, Envision, Windey, and Mingyang—now surpassing Western stalwarts such as Vestas, Siemens Energy, and GE Vernova.Despite the noise and negativity—what Laurent refers to as “the enemies of freedom”—there’s reason to stay hopeful. Wind remains a cornerstone of clean, secure, and locally sourced energy in many regions.Check out the full Global Wind Report 2025 from GWEC here: https://www.gwec.net/reports/globalwindreport

There's been a great deal of excitement and curiosity surrounding the idea of a Transatlantic Interconnector. So, as co-founders, Laurent Segalen, Gerard Reid and Simon Ludlam have decided to release a special episode to bring our listeners up to speed on where things currently stand.While we can’t dive into our discussions with governments and system operators—those are protected by NDAs—rest assured, those conversations are very much underway, as you might expect. To put this episode together, we have brought in a range of perspectives:First, you'll hear an excerpt from a conversation with John Pettigrew, CEO of National Grid, on the Aurora Unplugged podcast last October, where he discusses the potential of ultra-long interconnectors.Next, we feature an interview with Laurent on the Jolts podcast from this February.That’s followed by a deep dive into the technical aspects with Cornelis Plet, Global Head of HVDC at DNV.We then explore the legal landscape with Silke Goldberg, partner at Herbert Smith Freehills and one of the world’s foremost legal experts in this area.And finally, we wrap up with a conversation between the three co-founders, where Simon Ludlam lays out the key steps ahead in the coming months and Gerard engages with investors.We hope this gives you a clearer picture of what has been accomplished so far—and what lies ahead on this ambitious journey.A lot of information, reports and data are available on www.nato-l.org

As we start receiving data for the year 2024 in terms of Energy Production and Consumption, it is time to have a forensic analysis of the global Energy Complex in 2024.Last month we had the always comprehensive IEA Global Energy Review, and now to go deep into Electrification, we just received the Ember's sixth Global Electricity Review. We brought in two of its three authors: Dr Katye Altieri and Nicolas Fulghum to discuss the main finding. We’re sorry Euan Graham, the third author, could not join.Here are the key findings:Electricity growth is twice as fast as Energy GrowthThe world electricity consumption grew by the size of Japan (last decade it was annually the size of Brazil)80% of that additional demand is met by renewablesDemand drive is led by Cooling, Heating, Transportation and DatacentersWorld surpasses 40% clean power as renewables (incl. hydro and nuclear) see record riseSolar is the main driver of renewables growth, with generation doubling in three years And more findings in this comprehensive episode.Thank you, Ember Energy.Link to the report: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2025/--------------Other reports mentioned during the show:IEA Report: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025IRENA Report: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Mar/Renewable-capacity-statistics-2025