Trader Ferg: The Most Overlooked Commodities of the Iran War, ‘Worst Time Possible’ For Fertilizer

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader & Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. In this wide-ranging discussion, Trader Ferg shares his insights on several critical commodity markets and geopolitical developments, focusing primarily on coal and corn as compelling investment opportunities. Regarding coal, Trader Ferg argues that the conflict in the Red Sea and disruptions to LNG infrastructure have created a structural shift that will drive thermal coal prices higher. He highlights the significant damage to LNG trains and the resulting long-term supply constraints, particularly for European energy markets. With European gas storage at historic lows and alternative supply routes limited, coal becomes an increasingly attractive alternative. Ferg expects thermal coal prices to potentially reach the low $200 per ton range, driven by Asian cooling demands and European energy needs. For corn, Trader Ferg sees significant potential due to fertilizer supply disruptions caused by conflicts in the Red Sea. The timing coincides with critical planting seasons, which could create acute shortages and price volatility. He prefers playing corn through options, citing the attractive volatility and low cost of entry compared to traditional equity plays. The conversation also explores broader macroeconomic trends, including the potential for gold to re-emerge as a settlement currency between nations. Ferg believes we’re witnessing an acceleration of de-dollarization, with countries like Russia exploring gold-based settlement mechanisms with Asian trading partners. On precious metals, Ferg remains bullish, viewing the current pullback as a temporary setback in a longer-term bull market. He anticipates continued inflationary pressures and potential monetary expansion will ultimately support gold and other commodity prices. Throughout the discussion, Trader Ferg emphasizes his investment philosophy of identifying underappreciated, cyclical commodities with structural tailwinds and asymmetric potential for significant price appreciation. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:33 – Welcoming Guest Furgerskullen 00:01:05 – Spotlight on Coal Opportunities 00:02:03 – LNG Supply Disruptions Analysis 00:04:49 – Europe’s Russian Gas Ban 00:09:57 – Thermal Coal Demand Revival 00:17:15 – Fertilizer Shortages Hit Grains 00:23:12 – Precious Metals Bull Market 00:30:31 – Gold as Settlement Currency 00:32:50 – Platinum Group Elements Update 00:38:30 – Oil Market Dynamics Discussion 00:45:16 – Helium Export Vulnerabilities 00:48:40 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/ X: https://x.com/trader_ferg Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.

Stijn Schmitz your host welcomes Gary Wagnar to the show. Gary Wagnar is Executive Producer of TheGoldForecast.com. In this detailed discussion about gold markets, Wagnar provides a comprehensive technical analysis of current gold trading conditions, highlighting significant market movements and potential future trajectories. Currently, gold is experiencing notable volatility, with prices dropping below $5,000 per ounce. Gary emphasizes the importance of the 50-day moving average as a critical technical indicator, noting that breaking below this level suggests a potential pivot from a bullish to a bearish market trend. He attributes the recent price decline primarily to the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain current interest rates, which has dampened gold’s performance. Despite the short-term bearish outlook, Wagnar remains cautiously optimistic about gold’s long-term prospects. He points out that gold has still gained 16% over the past year, which is a significant performance compared to other commodities. The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and potential inflationary pressures from rising oil prices could provide future support for gold prices. Wagnar also discusses his technical analysis approach, particularly his preference for Japanese candlestick charting, which he believes offers superior visual insights into price movements compared to traditional Western bar charts. He uses Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential support and resistance points, currently suggesting that gold could find support around $4,677 if the current downward trend continues. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:45 – Market Volatility Overview 00:01:00 – Compelling Trading Setups 00:01:07 – Gold Technical Breakdown 00:01:43 – Geopolitical Conflict Impacts 00:02:40 – Federal Reserve Influence 00:04:51 – Gold Yearly Performance 00:05:30 – Miners Disparity Analysis 00:10:06 – Bull Market Cycle Position 00:10:15 – Candlestick Chart Techniques 00:27:19 – Long-Term Bull Outlook 00:33:39 – Oil Spike Inflation 00:37:23 – Silver Market Leverage 00:45:44 – Guest Service Details 00:53:36 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://thegoldforecast.com X: https://x.com/TheGoldForecast Gary S. Wagner is the executive producer of TheGoldForecast.com – a daily video newsletter covering precious metals. He has been a technical market analyst for over 35 years. Since 2010 he has been a regular analyst for Kitco News, where he authors daily commentary “Hawaii 6-O”. He has written for Stocks & Commodities Magazine, Futures Magazine, Street, and Barons. He has been a speaker for many financial seminars like Dow Jones Financial Symposium or Futures West. Gary S. Wagner coauthored a book “Trading Applications of Japanese Candlestick Charting” a John Wiley publication. He also co-developed a software application for market forecasting called the “Candlestick Forecaster”. Considered as one of the first computer programs to recognize and identify Candlestick patterns. He was mentored by many great technical analysts like John Bollinger and Larry Williams.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Jeffrey Christian to the show. Jeff is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. In this comprehensive discussion, Christian provides nuanced insights into the current state of precious metals, global economics, and geopolitical dynamics. Regarding gold, Christian argues that the market is in a long-term secular upward trend, with the current bull market potentially 60-70% through its cycle. He emphasizes that gold serves as a financial asset, a safe haven, and a portfolio diversifier. While acknowledging concerns about global deficits and debt, Christian suggests these issues are not as catastrophic as some analysts claim, pointing out that economic systems have historically adapted to significant financial challenges. The discussion explores broader economic trends, including de-globalization, reduced international trade, and potential decoupling of the world economy from the United States. Christian highlights the complex dynamics of central bank and sovereign wealth fund gold purchases, noting a critical distinction between monetary reserve acquisitions and investment-driven purchases. On silver and other precious metals, Christian describes a more specialized and volatile market compared to gold. He provides detailed insights into market dynamics, including arbitrage opportunities, industrial demand, and regional variations in trading. The conversation also delves into geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its potential implications for oil markets and global trade. Christian warns of potential economic disruptions, suggesting that a combination of factors could lead to a recession, including challenges in private equity, technology sectors, and international trade relationships. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:52 – Gold Long-Term Cycle 00:04:26 – Bull Market Drivers 00:07:46 – De-globalization Effects 00:11:32 – Middle East Conflict 00:15:14 – Gold’s Safe Haven Role 00:20:33 – Retail Investor Participation 00:23:10 – Miners & Gold Disparity 00:24:47 – Silver Market Dynamics 00:28:32 – East Vs. West Prices 00:33:10 – Precious Metals Outlook 00:37:54 – Global Energy Crisis 00:42:08 – Dire Straits 00:43:54 – Supply Chain Concerns 00:48:13 – Recession Precious Metals 00:53:15 – Recession Risk & Liquidity 00:54:14 – CPM Group Overview Guest Links: X: https://x.com/CPMGroupLLC Website: https://www.cpmgroup.com/ Questions E-Mail: mailto:[email protected] YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company. He has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes David Hunter to the show. David Hunter is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. David provides a comprehensive macro outlook that anticipates a significant market transformation in the coming years. He believes the current market is in the late stages of a 43-year secular bull market, with a potential melt-up phase that could see the S&P 500 reaching 9,500 by mid-year or Labor Day. However, he warns of an impending “bust” that could result in an 80% market decline, potentially worse than the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Hunter’s analysis suggests a complex economic landscape where initial deflationary pressures will give way to potentially hyperinflationary conditions by the early 2030s. He anticipates central banks will be slow to respond to the economic downturn, potentially requiring up to 20 trillion in quantitative easing to stabilize the system. The federal balance sheet could expand from the current 6.5 trillion to as much as 30 trillion. Regarding asset classes, Hunter recommends a strategic approach to capital preservation. He believes the current investment mantra of “time in the market” will be insufficient and investors should consider carefully timing their exit from markets. He expects significant opportunities in commodities and industrial sectors, with potential dramatic price increases in oil, copper, and precious metals. For gold specifically, Hunter forecasts a potential rise to $6,800 this year and potentially $20,000 by the early 2030s. He views gold as a potential hedge against the massive economic restructuring he anticipates. His outlook extends to a potential systemic financial reset between 2033-2035, which he describes as the end of an 80-90 year economic supercycle. Hunter emphasizes that while the coming economic transformation will be challenging, it will also create new investment opportunities, particularly in industrial and commodity sectors. He advises investors to remain flexible and prepared for significant market disruptions. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:45 – Market Volatility Overview 00:02:52 – Melt-Up Scenario Explained 00:05:03 – Interest Rates Outlook 00:08:10 – Inflation and Money Supply 00:10:26 – Bust Phase Predictions 00:11:35 – Asset Performance Melt-Up 00:13:33 – Post-Melt-Up Recession 00:20:37 – Middle East Conflict Impact 00:24:20 – Oil Price Forecasts 00:27:10 – Investment Strategy Advice 00:38:03 – Gold and Commodities Future 00:42:50 – Gold During the Bust 00:44:06 – US Dollar and Gold Role 00:51:01 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https://x.com/DaveHcontrarian David is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. He is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 21 years as a sell-side strategist with robust macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management expertise. His strong macro capabilities, combined with a contrarian philosophy, have allowed him to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. Intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course apart from the crowd.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Martin Armstrong to the show. Martin Armstrong is CEO & Chairman of Armstrong Economics Ltd. In this wide-ranging interview, Armstrong provides deep insights into global geopolitical and economic dynamics, focusing on current international tensions, monetary systems, and future economic trends. Armstrong argues that the current geopolitical landscape is far more complex than many analysts understand, particularly regarding conflicts in the Middle East and potential global tensions. He emphasizes that the neoconservative movement has significantly influenced US foreign policy, often without fully comprehending the long-term consequences of their actions. He specifically critiques interventions in Iraq, Iran, and other regions, suggesting that these actions frequently create more instability than they resolve. Regarding the global monetary system, Armstrong believes significant changes are coming. He suggests that gold is increasingly being viewed as a neutral asset by countries like China, who are accumulating it as a hedge against potential conflicts. While he doesn’t anticipate a traditional gold standard, he sees gold playing a crucial role in international trade settlements, potentially rising to $10,000 by 2032. Armstrong is particularly critical of current government debt strategies, predicting a potential sovereign debt crisis. He argues that governments historically default through various mechanisms, including war, currency devaluation, or simply refusing to honor previous debt. The United States’ reserve currency status, he explains, stems not just from government policy but from its robust consumer economy and deep financial markets. Looking forward, Armstrong sees continued geopolitical uncertainty, rising oil prices, and potential conflicts, particularly involving Russia and China. He warns that sanctions and current diplomatic strategies are counterproductive and that true global peace requires economic integration rather than isolation. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:05 – Decade-Long Economic Trends 00:02:29 – Neocon Endless Wars 00:03:42 – Sovereign Debt Crisis 00:04:17 – Gold’s Rise Factors 00:04:53 – Forecasting Model History 00:08:51 – Pre-War Capital Flows 00:09:57 – Middle East Religious Risks 00:21:00 – Short-Term Oil Outlook 00:22:57 – Gold’s Geopolitical Role 00:30:46 – US Dollar Future 00:37:28 – Sovereign Default Mechanics 00:44:25 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://armstrongeconomics.com X: https://x.com/strongeconomics Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167 Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9 Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed. At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries. Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter. “In Armstrong’s view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia’s financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide, he reminds readers of his October 1997 prediction that the creation of the euro “will merely transform currency speculation into bond speculation,” leading to the system’s eventual collapse.” His Website Armstrong Economics offers a unique perspective intended to educate the public and organizations on the global economic and political environment’s underlying trends. Their mission is to research historical cyclical trends.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Douglas MacGregor to the show. Douglas is a retired U.S. Army Colonel and Decorated Combat Veteran. In this in-depth discussion, MacGregor provides a critical analysis of the current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. MacGregor argues that the current military strategy against Iran is fundamentally flawed, with no clear purpose or achievable end state. He suggests that the United States and Israel are attempting to destabilize Iran, but this approach is unlikely to succeed. The colonel emphasizes that Iran’s primary goal is simply to survive, while the U.S. would need to completely conquer the nation – an impossible task given Iran’s size and resilience. The conversation delves into the broader economic implications of the conflict, particularly its impact on global oil markets and supply chains. MacGregor predicts significant economic disruption, with oil prices potentially exceeding $100 per barrel and widespread increases in commodity prices. He highlights the critical importance of resource sovereignty, emphasizing the need for nations to control their fuel, food, fertilizer, and defense supply chains. A key theme of the discussion is the potential acceleration of de-dollarization and the emergence of a new global financial system. MacGregor suggests that the United States and Israel are essentially “fighting against the future” by resisting these inevitable economic shifts. He points to the growing influence of BRICS nations and the increasing interest in alternative currency systems, potentially backed by gold or a basket of precious metals. MacGregor concludes with a stark warning about the destructive nature of current geopolitical strategies, arguing that these “pointless wars” are counterproductive and potentially catastrophic. He calls for more measured, strategic approaches to international relations and economic development, emphasizing the need for stability, long-term planning, and cooperation between governments and private sectors. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:56 – Middle East Assessment 00:01:32 – Strategic Goals Discussion 00:02:55 – Oil Dependency Impacts 00:04:52 – Global Economic Shutdown 00:07:28 – Logistics and Escalation 00:09:01 – Lack of Planning 00:11:32 – Israel’s Internal Problems 00:13:00 – Oil Markets Analysis 00:16:16 – Conflict Motivations Explored 00:20:05 – Emerging Alliances Support 00:26:27 – Reshoring Supply Chains 00:39:12 – Gold Currency Future 00:42:04 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://douglasmacgregor.com X: https://x.com/DougAMacgregor YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@douglasmacgregorTV Articles: https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/ Substack: https://substack.com/@coloneldoug Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant. Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia. Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew. In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor’s concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces. Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Adrian Day to the show. Adrian Day is the CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of the EuroPacific Gold Fund. The discussion centers on the current state of gold, silver, and global commodities markets, with Day providing deep insights into current investment trends and opportunities. Day remains bullish on gold, citing historical market cycles and key buyers like central banks and Tether. He notes that central banks are actively diversifying away from the US dollar due to concerns about government profligacy and potential asset weaponization. The trend of dollar reserve reduction has been ongoing for years, accelerated by events like the confiscation of Russian central bank assets. Regarding silver, Day sees potential but with more risks compared to gold. He highlights a genuine physical deficit in the silver market and increasing demand from sectors like solar panel manufacturing. However, he cautions that high prices might incentivize manufacturers to seek more efficient alternatives. In the broader commodity complex, Day finds significant value opportunities. He points out that commodities are trading near 100-year lows relative to financial assets, with underinvestment in sectors like oil, gas, and copper creating potential for price appreciation. He emphasizes the long lead times for new commodity projects and the challenges of rapidly increasing production. Day’s investment approach focuses on global markets, with a current preference for reducing US exposure and exploring opportunities in markets like Britain, Singapore, and Hong Kong. He remains particularly interested in gold mining stocks, especially mid-tier producers in stable jurisdictions. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:50 – Bullish Case for Gold 00:01:58 – Gold Market Cycles 00:04:04 – Central Bank Buying Reasons 00:10:27 – Tether Gold Stablecoin 00:14:10 – Dollar Reserve Decline 00:18:08 – Gold Settlement Potential 00:22:33 – Silver Market Insights 00:30:20 – Commodity Value Opportunities 00:38:20 – Gold Mining Investments 00:45:24 – Other Commodities Analysis 00:50:53 – Oil and Gas Plays 00:53:52 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://adrianday.com/ Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes the return of the Market Sniper himself Francis Hunt to the show. Francis is a Renegade Trader, Analyst, and the Founder of The Market Sniper. Hunt discusses the ongoing precious metals bull market, emphasizing that the current market is in the early stages of a significant economic transformation. He argues that the world is experiencing a fundamental shift away from fiat currency and towards sound money principles, with gold and silver positioned as critical assets for capital preservation. The discussion centers on the broader economic context of a debt and fiat bubble that is gradually collapsing. Hunt suggests that we are witnessing a long-term process of monetary debasement that began with the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913. He believes the current economic environment is characterized by systemic fraud and manipulation, with central banks and governments actively working to obscure the true economic reality. Hunt is particularly bullish on gold and silver, projecting significant price increases in the coming years. He anticipates a potential gold-silver ratio reaching single digits, which would represent a dramatic shift from current levels. Moreover, he warns about the dangers of digital currencies and tokenization, viewing these as attempts to strip individuals of financial privacy and asset ownership. Francis is critical of traditional investment assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, arguing that they are fundamentally underperforming when measured against gold. He sees gold as the ultimate benchmark for preserving wealth during this period of economic transformation. Hunt also discusses potential opportunities in mining stocks, particularly silver miners, while cautioning about jurisdiction-specific risks. He recommends a diversified approach that includes physical precious metals, strategic mining investments, and potential options strategies. Ultimately, Hunt’s message is one of preparation and strategic positioning. He encourages investors to focus on capital preservation, understand the broader economic trends, and be prepared for significant market disruptions in the coming years. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:46 – Bull Market Confirmation 00:01:29 – Recent Gold Correction 00:08:19 – Technical Volatility Analysis 00:13:43 – Cross Currency Insights 00:20:45 – Fiat Debt Bubble 00:22:08 – Bitcoin Digitization Critique 00:27:30 – Silver Market Targets 00:28:24 – Nasdaq vs Gold Rebasement 00:37:04 – Timeline and Speed 00:42:36 – Miners Leverage Opportunities 00:48:56 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: X: https://x.com/themarketsniper X: https://x.com/thecryptosniper Website: https://themarketsniper.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade? He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis. Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Simon Hunt to the show. Simon Hunt is Consultant on the Global Economy, China, and the Copper Industry. In this wide-ranging discussion, Hunt provides a comprehensive analysis of the current global geopolitical and economic landscape, focusing on the critical transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order. Hunt argues that the United States is experiencing a significant decline, similar to historical imperial cycles characterized by military overextension, debt accumulation, and internal societal friction. He suggests that the emerging BRICS alliance, led by Russia, China, and India, is fundamentally challenging American hegemony. The potential for conflict between these powers is high, with Hunt predicting a possible war between 2028 and 2030 unless Washington adapts to a multipolar framework. A significant portion of the discussion centers on potential geopolitical flashpoints, particularly in the Middle East. Hunt suggests that any conflict with Iran would be strategically complex, potentially involving Russia and China, who have recently signed a tripartite strategic alliance with Iran. He believes the United States is unlikely to launch an immediate attack, given the potential diplomatic and domestic political consequences. The conversation also delves deeply into economic trends, with Hunt highlighting the ongoing de-dollarization process. He anticipates China will play a pivotal role in this transformation, potentially announcing a gold-backed currency and participating in the creation of a new BRICS currency called the “unit” as early as 2024. Hunt predicts the Dollar Index could halve in value by 2030, potentially driving gold prices to $10,000. Regarding economic outlook, Hunt expects a significant economic correction in the third or fourth quarter of this year, driven by slowing global liquidity, credit cycles, and what he describes as fundamentally false economic reporting in the United States. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:57 – Global Trends Overview 00:01:41 – Ukraine Conflict Analysis 00:03:09 – Geopolitical Alliances BRICS 00:04:54 – Empire Decline Cycles 00:06:29 – US Debt Overextension 00:09:03 – Energy Control Wars 00:11:30 – Iran Gulf Stakes 00:16:17 – Military Buildup Assessment 00:21:11 – BRICS De-Dollarization 00:27:10 – Gold Remonetization Strategy 00:34:39 – Silver Copper Outlooks 00:38:50 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: E-Mail: mailto:[email protected] Website: https://simon-hunt.com/ Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/ Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia. In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe. He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level. He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia. The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected. Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook. Simon established this company in January 1996.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical Traders. In this episode, Vermeulen provides a comprehensive insights into the current market landscape, focusing primarily on precious metals, equities, and broader economic trends. Regarding precious metals, Vermeulen describes the recent market as experiencing significant volatility, with gold and silver experiencing a massive rally followed by a sharp correction. He notes that while long-term trends remain bullish, short-term signals are mixed and uncertain. The market is currently in a “no man’s land” where investors are waiting to see whether metals will consolidate and launch another rally or experience a substantial pullback. On equities, Vermeulen indicates that markets are precariously balanced. The S&P 500 is “clinging by a thread” to an uptrend, with the Nasdaq showing potential signs of breakdown. He observes that “smart money” is moving into defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples, suggesting underlying market nervousness. Vermeulen’s investment approach emphasizes technical analysis and following price trends rather than attempting to predict exact market tops and bottoms. Currently, his strategy involves maintaining approximately 70% cash position and waiting for clearer market signals. He believes the market is primed for significant movement, whether upward or downward. Regarding currencies, Vermeulen remains bullish on the US dollar, suggesting it could potentially rally 10-15%, which would put pressure on gold prices. He also highlights the importance of understanding currency movements as part of a comprehensive investment strategy. When discussing other asset classes like oil, copper, and uranium, Vermeulen sees similar patterns of uncertainty and consolidation. His overall message is one of patience: waiting for clear trends to emerge before committing capital, and prioritizing capital preservation over aggressive speculation. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:53 – Precious Metals Volatility Drivers 00:02:42 – Sector Upside Potential 00:05:42 – Technical Trading Philosophy 00:08:34 – 2007 Market Comparison 00:10:11 – Silver Leverage Play 00:14:03 – Fiat and Manipulation Concerns 00:16:32 – US Dollar Outlook 00:20:32 – Equities Market Trends 00:24:08 – Miners Lagging Analysis 00:25:49 – Oil Prices Update 00:29:25 – Copper Uranium Rundown 00:30:44 – Technical Traders Service 00:31:51 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://thetechnicaltraders.com/ X: https://x.com/TheTechTraders Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework. Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses. A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques.