Chase Taylor: The U.S. Fighting the World on Trade Opens It to a Systemic Threat

In this podcast interview, Chase Taylor, a global macro strategist, discusses the current economic landscape, focusing on several key themes. He argues that the economy's resilience stems from high deficit spending and asset prices, making a recession less probable than in previous decades. Taylor suggests that higher interest rates can be stimulative for the private sector, as they provide significant income for investors and institutions. He notes that while high rates can hurt small businesses, the broader economy remains relatively stable, especially with tech sectors demonstrating low cyclicality. Regarding fiscal policy, Taylor warns about potential "fiscal dominance" - a scenario where monetary policy becomes subservient to government funding needs. He believes this might occur if the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates inappropriately, even with persistent inflation. The discussion explores potential economic risks, with housing being a critical sector to watch. Taylor sees similarities to the 2008 housing market in terms of home prices versus incomes, but emphasizes that current credit quality and household balance sheets are much stronger. On trade policy, Taylor is skeptical about reshoring efforts, arguing that blanket tariffs could create more economic complications than benefits. He highlights the complexity of global supply chains and the potential inflationary impacts of aggressive tariff strategies. The labor market remains a key indicator, with Taylor observing a cooling but not collapsing job market. He sees potential job market stress in sectors like home building and healthcare, particularly following recent legislative changes. Regarding currencies and commodities, Taylor anticipates a potential short-term dollar rally driven by inflation concerns and rate differentials. He remains bullish on gold, primarily due to consistent central bank purchases, though he expects a period of consolidation. Overall, Taylor presents a nuanced view of the economy, emphasizing the interconnectedness of fiscal policy, asset prices, and global economic dynamics, while cautioning against oversimplified interpretations of economic indicators.

In this podcast, Michael Green, Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market dynamics, focusing on the profound impact of passive investing. Green argues that the rise of passive investment strategies has fundamentally transformed market structures, creating what he describes as an "everything bubble" driven by algorithmic investment flows. The key insight is that passive funds, which now represent over 50% of US equity markets, operate without traditional valuation considerations. Unlike active managers who adjust investments based on market valuations, passive funds simply buy or sell based on cash flows, removing critical market filtering mechanisms. This has led to unprecedented market valuations and concentration in large-cap stocks. Green highlights how regulatory changes, particularly the 2006 Pension Protection Act, have accelerated passive investing by automatically enrolling workers in retirement plans that default to passive index funds. This has created a massive, potentially unstable market ecosystem where investment decisions are increasingly disconnected from fundamental economic principles. The discussion extends to broader economic implications, including potential market risks, inflation dynamics, and the role of technological disruption in employment. Green suggests that the current market structure resembles a Ponzi scheme, with asset values dependent on continuous inflows rather than intrinsic value. Regarding future market dynamics, Green identifies potential catalysts for market shifts, including employment trends, retirement withdrawals, and changes in monetary policy. He warns that when passive flows eventually reverse, the market could experience significant disruption similar to other algorithmic trading implosions. The conversation also explores related topics like cryptocurrency, stablecoins, and the importance of rebuilding societal trust through technological innovations. Green's overarching message is that the current market structure is unsustainable and that rebuilding trust and understanding complex market mechanisms are crucial for future economic stability. Ultimately, Green emphasizes the need for a collective approach to addressing these systemic challenges, encouraging listeners to seek systems that enhance transparency and mutual understanding.

In this podcast interview, Jesse Felder provides a comprehensive analysis of current market conditions, highlighting several critical economic indicators suggesting significant potential risks ahead. He argues that the U.S. stock market is currently more overvalued than at any point since 1950, with valuation metrics indicating extremely limited upside potential and substantial downside risk. Felder emphasizes the market's narrow breadth, noting an unprecedented number of trading days where the S&P 500 rose with fewer than 200 stocks driving gains. He also points to insider selling trends, which have been persistently bearish, signaling potential economic and earnings disappointments in the coming 12-24 months. A key focus of his analysis is the declining U.S. dollar, which he sees as a critical indicator of broader economic shifts. Felder suggests the dollar's weakness could catalyze a significant market correction, particularly given record foreign investment in U.S. markets and potential unwind of carry trades. Demographically and economically, Felder anticipates a stagflationary environment. He highlights how de-globalization and changing workforce demographics are creating inflationary pressures, while economic growth appears to be weakening. He sees particular opportunity in the energy sector, arguing that natural gas and oil are undervalued, with supply constraints and increasing electricity demand creating potential for a major bull market. On monetary policy, Felder is skeptical of the Federal Reserve's independence, suggesting potential political pressure could lead to more dovish policies aimed at managing government debt through financial repression. He draws parallels to historical periods like the 1971 Nixon shock, where currency devaluation and trade negotiations were used to address economic challenges. Ultimately, Felder recommends investors prepare for a potential market rotation, favoring natural resources and value stocks while being cautious of high-valuation momentum stocks. He sees gold and commodities as potential hedges against the anticipated economic environment of slower growth and persistent inflation.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Edward Dowd, founder of Phinance Technologies, to the show to discuss the unfolding economic landscape and the probable looming recession. Dowd explains that initial recession predictions for late 2023 and early 2024 were incorrect due to an unprecedented economic variable: mass illegal immigration. He estimates that between 20 million people were brought into the U.S. over three-and-a-half years, supported by deficit spending ranging from $500 billion to $2 trillion. This influx of labor and spending temporarily propped up the economy, masking underlying weaknesses, particularly in the housing market. However, with the Trump administration now halting immigration flows and initiating deportations, Dowd expects a significant economic impact. Housing, which constitutes 20% of the consumption economy and 45% of the CPI, is already rolling over, with new home sales plummeting and delinquencies rising. Dowd predicts this will lead to a housing-driven recession, similar to the 2008 crisis but less systemic, barring an oil price shock. Inflation, which Dowd believes is overstated due to faulty shelter cost metrics, is expected to fall below 2% by year-end. This deflationary trend will likely prompt the Fed to cut rates, but Dowd warns that rate cuts during an economic downturn are bearish for stocks, as seen in 2000 and 2008. He advises investors to focus on U.S. Treasury bonds and gold, which is being re-monetized as a tier-one capital asset. Dowd also highlights the potential for fiscal dominance to worsen, with governments globally struggling under unsustainable debt burdens. He points to Europe and Japan as particularly vulnerable due to demographic declines and debt crises, which could lead to currency collapses or conflicts. In the U.S., he emphasizes the need for fiscal discipline and warns that the current debt trajectory, exacerbated by the Biden administration’s spending, will require painful adjustments. Despite the challenges, Dowd sees opportunities for younger generations should a reset come for the housing markets and for investors during the eventual market correction. Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:36 - Metrics & U.S Outlook00:05:16 - Real Estate & Oil Crisis00:08:04 - U.S. Employment Stats00:11:47 - Fiscal Hangover & DXY00:14:34 - Fear & Dollar Safety?00:15:30 - Fiscal Dominance & Fed00:17:47 - Asset Allocation Changes00:19:27 - CPI & Fed Reactions00:25:50 - Powell's Replacment & Q.E.00:27:23 - Recession & Risk Assets00:28:48 - Conflicts, Truth, & Timing00:32:16 - Gold's Behavior & Oil00:34:05 - Trump, Threats, Econ Shocks00:36:24 - Finding Good Information00:39:41 - Distractions & Geopolitics00:40:13 - Euro & Asian Demographics00:45:12 - Taxes & Gov't Desperation00:47:44 - Macro Econ. Alt. Hedge Fund00:48:48 - Depressions & Commodities00:50:05 - Wrap Up Guest Links:X: https://x.com/DowdEdwardGETTR: @EdwardDowdLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-dowd-87902158/ Edward Dowd is a founding partner with Phinance Technologies. Edward worked on Wall Street the majority of his career most notably at Blackrock as a portfolio manager where he managed a $14 billion Growth equity portfolio for ten years. His book 'Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Death in 2021 & 2022' propelled him as an alternative voice during the pandemic and the economic implications that continue to plague us today. Their unique alternative macroeconomic analysis of the global debt crisis and what may unfold has given many a deeper understanding of the global nature of our problems today.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of GoldStockData.com, to delve into the current state of the gold and silver markets, the broader economy, and what investors should watch for in the coming months. Don begins by noting that gold has been in a bull market since late 2019, with a significant breakout in March 2024. Despite the recent surge, he believes the bull market in mining stocks is still in its early stages, with higher lows signaling a potential breakout. However, he cautions that sentiment remains weak, partly due to the strong performance of the stock market, which has overshadowed gold. Drawing parallels to the 1970s, Don explains that gold and miners typically perform well during periods of economic uncertainty or when the stock market falters, a scenario he sees as increasingly likely. Don shifts to the macroeconomic landscape, highlighting the unsustainable U.S. budget deficit, which is approaching $2 trillion annually, and the need to roll over $7 trillion in debt this year. He warns that the debt burden, combined with declining foreign purchases of U.S. Treasuries, could lead to higher interest rates and inflation. Don predicts a looming recession, driven by factors like weakening full-time employment, a housing bubble, and the inflationary impact of tariffs, particularly if President Trump follows through with significant tariff increases on July 9th. He believes these tariffs could exacerbate economic weakness, leading to a prolonged downturn reminiscent of Japan’s "lost decade" in the 1990s, where monetary policy failed to revive growth. Discussing gold and silver, Don emphasizes that their bull markets are tied to economic instability and a potential "fear trade," where investors shift away from equities and into safe-haven assets. He notes that silver, currently undervalued relative to gold, could see a surge in demand, particularly if shortages emerge. Don also touches on Mexico’s mining policies under President Claudia Sheinbaum, which could restrict new mining concessions, though he doesn’t see this as a major near-term threat to silver supply. He concludes by urging investors to focus on the long-term potential of gold and silver, particularly as the U.S. economy faces mounting challenges. Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:06 - Mkt. Forecast 2025/202600:04:50 - Metals - Wall of Worry00:09:13 - The Macro Picture00:19:38 - U.S. Short-Term Debt00:31:08 - Trump, The Fed & Powell00:38:55 - Oil & U.S. Recession00:41:00 - T-Bills, Dollar & Game Theory00:53:20 - A Silver Bull Trap?01:04:16 - New Era for Metals01:05:55 - PM Shortages Coming?01:07:10 - Mexican Silver Permitting01:15:05 - Wrap Up Guest Links:X: https://x.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.comSubstack: https://dondurrett.substack.comAmazon Books: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23 Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of the Euro Pacific Gold Fund, to discuss the economic and monetary landscape under President Trump’s second term, the implications of tariffs, and the outlook for gold and other commodities. Adrian begins by addressing the potential impact of Trump’s trade policies, particularly tariffs, on inflation and the global financial system. He argues that while tariffs are often seen as inflationary, they can be deflationary by reducing demand for certain goods. However, he warns that a weakening U.S. dollar and a potential loss of its reserve currency status could lead to higher inflation domestically, as dollars previously held abroad return to the U.S. Adrian emphasizes that while the U.S. dollar’s dominance is not immediately threatened, Trump’s policies could accelerate its decline, with significant consequences for the economy. The conversation then shifts to the U.S. debt market, where Adrian highlights the challenges of financing the growing deficit. He notes that major buyers of U.S. Treasuries, such as China and Japan, are reducing their holdings, and domestic buyers like regional banks and the Federal Reserve are also pulling back. This could lead to higher interest rates and increased pressure on the U.S. economy. Adrian predicts that the Federal Reserve may eventually return to quantitative easing (QE) to support the bond market, which would be bullish for gold. He also discusses the disconnect between gold prices and gold mining stocks, attributing it to the lack of participation from North American investors. However, he believes this is changing as economic conditions shift, with gold stocks offering significant value and expanding margins. Adrian also touches on other commodities, particularly copper and uranium, which he sees as critical for the global energy transition. He concludes by advising investors to focus on value rather than price, emphasizing that the gold market is still in its early stages of a bull run. Timestamps:0:00:00 - Introduction00:01:22 - Trump & U.S. Trade Policy00:06:30 - Multi Res. Currency World00:09:13 - A Bretton Woods Event?00:13:42 - Cad. Dairy & Tariffs00:15:57 - U.S. Economic Concerns?00:22:12 - U.S. Debt Global Outlook00:34:26 - Fed Rates & Q.E.00:40:20 - Gold & Market Participants00:45:28 - Gold Sentiment00:48:28 - Gold & Geopolitical Risk00:51:58 - Monetary Response & Gold00:54:39 - Gold Price & Mining Equities01:00:29 - GSR, Silver, & Cycles01:05:02 - Royalty Companies & Value01:07:30 - Capital & Explorers01:10:42 - Other Sectors/Countries01:16:12 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Website: https://adrianday.com/ Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.

Tom welcomes back the headwriter for the Doomberg Team for another interesting discussion around current geopolitics. They delve into the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, which Doomy argues was sparked by a dangerous miscalculation by Israel. He emphasizes that Israel vastly underestimated Iran’s military capabilities, assuming they could deliver a knockout blow early in the conflict. However, as days pass and Iranian missiles continue to breach Israel’s famed defense systems, the situation appears increasingly dire for Israel—a small country now facing a prolonged war of attrition against a nation ten times its size, backed by Russia and China. Doomberg frames this escalation as part of a broader “World War III,” a concept often downplayed in Western media but openly acknowledged by Russian and Chinese propaganda. He highlights the geopolitical stakes, including the potential diversion of U.S. military resources from Ukraine to Israel, which could embolden Russia further. The discussion also touches on the fracturing of Trump’s base, many of whom feel betrayed by his apparent shift from a peace-oriented campaign to a hawkish stance—echoing the skepticism of prominent conservative voices like Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon. The conversation extends to broader geopolitical risks, including the possibilities of false-flag attacks, cyber threats to American infrastructure, and the vulnerability of global energy supply chains—particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Doomberg critiques the market’s seemingly placid response to these escalations, noting that oil prices reflect some risk premium but broader financial markets appear overly complacent. Throughout, Doomberg advocates for sober, nuanced analysis, urging listeners to look beyond emotional reactions and consider second- and third-order consequences. He critiques the bellicose posturing of Washington hawks, including figures like John Bolton and Lindsey Graham, and questions whether Trump is being maneuvered into a disastrous war or has abandoned his anti-interventionist stance entirely. The discussion closes with a call for vigilance, urging audiences to approach geopolitical conflicts with a critical, independent mindset rather than relying on echo chambers or sensationalism. Doomberg’s insights serve as a timely reminder of the high stakes and long-lasting repercussions of unchecked military escalation in an interconnected world. Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:49 - Iran Trap & News Cycle00:06:34 - Proxy Conflicts & Diplomacy00:08:28 - End of War President?00:11:18 - Promises & Realities00:15:00 - Zelensky & Ukraine00:18:40 - Reactions & Consequences00:22:22 - Tucker Ted Cruz Interview00:26:36 - Emotions & U.S. Politics00:31:28 - News Flow & Finding Truth00:34:40 - Israel's Vulnerabilities00:41:28 - Israeli Samson Option00:43:06 - Strait of Hormuz & Oil00:47:38 - Mkts. Pricing In WWIII?00:50:07 - OPEC Production00:51:27 - Other Geopolitical Risks00:53:18 - U.S. Infrastructure Risk00:56:20 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Substack: https://doomberg.substack.comX: https://x.com/DoombergT Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.

Tom welcomes back Justin Huhn for a in-depth discussion about the Uranium market and the potential risks if there's a nuclear weapon exchange in the conflict between Israel and Iran. They discusses how nuclear powers handle enrichment and how the Uranium fuel cycle operates. Justin sees potential for growth in the Uranium market due to an increase in SMR demand and global efforts towards sustainable energy sources. He also warns against a possible overbought situation in the short term but emphasizes the importance of watching the physical market dynamics and Sprott's activities to spot potential buying opportunities. Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:41 - Iran Conflict Concerns00:04:32 - Enrichment & Grades00:08:40 - Plutonium Details00:09:36 - Market Reaction & Risks00:13:16 - Uranium Supply & Demand00:22:10 - Project Approvals & Risk00:26:37 - Sprott Deal & Canacord00:34:08 - Sprott SPUT Holdings00:38:55 - Banks & Sentiment Shifts00:44:07 - Investor Hangover00:52:30 - Concluding Thoughts00:56:12 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.comNewsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletterX: https://x.com/UraniumInsider Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin's thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro's "Focus List," as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit. Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back gold market and finance expert Alasdair Macleod. Together they explore the escalating systemic risks in global gold and silver markets, driven by surging demand for physical delivery. Macleod highlighted the European Central Bank’s (ECB) warning about skyrocketing counterparty risks in gold derivatives, emphasizing that COMEX delivery demands have reached unprecedented levels, with an annualized rate of 1,500 tons—far exceeding post-pandemic trends. This surge reflects a growing scramble for physical metal which is exacerbated by delays in delivery fulfillment. Bullion banks, fearing tariffs and supply shortages, inflated futures prices to create arbitrage opportunities, further straining markets. Macleod underscored a critical shift: central banks, once willing to lease gold to stabilize markets, now hesitate to renew leases, fearing irreversible loss of reserves. This trend, compounded by COMEX silver shortages, signals deepening liquidity crises. Demand is driven by sovereign wealth funds, Asian families, and Middle Eastern entities diversifying from the dollar amid geopolitical tensions and long-term currency devaluation fears. The discussion pivoted to the U.S. debt trap, with deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and tepid demand for long-term Treasuries. Macleod compared today’s credit bubble and protectionist tariffs to the 1929 crash, warning of a potential debt deflation spiral. He noted China’s strategic accumulation of gold and silver, possibly prepping the yuan for gold backing, while avoiding abrupt moves to destabilize Western economies. Amid these risks, Macleod stressed wealth preservation over accumulation, advocating physical gold as a hedge. He cautioned that markets underestimate the looming convergence of fiscal instability, currency crises, and geopolitical shifts, urging vigilance as structural economic fractures deepen. The episode closed with a stark reminder: today’s calm belies a gathering storm, mirroring historical precedents where credit excesses and policy missteps fueled systemic collapse. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinanceSubstack: https://substack.com/@macleodfinanceWebsite: https://goldmoney.comResearch: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/ Alasdair Macleod is Head of Research for GoldMoney. He is an educator and advocates for sound money thru demystifying finance and economics. His background includes being a stockbroker, banker, and economist. Alasdair started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. Within nine years, he had risen to become senior partner of his firm. Subsequently, he held positions at the director level in investment management and worked as a mutual fund manager. Mr. Macleod also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director. For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, he has been demystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman's terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.

Tom welcomes back John Lee for a discussion on the concerning trends of global control and manipulation by powerful entities across finance, media, and technology. Lee highlights tactics like facial recognition and digital wallets that threaten privacy and autonomy. He warns of a potential biometric system that could blacklist individuals, emphasizing the need for proactive measures. To protect oneself, Lee suggests diversifying assets, particularly investing in gold and silver as reliable stores of value, and establishing alternative living arrangements globally to avoid dependency on any single system. He also stresses the importance of gaining new experiences over mere wealth accumulation, advocating for personal growth and memorable experiences as true sources of wealth. Lee remains optimistic that collective consciousness will drive a breakthrough, leading to positive change after sufficient negative experiences. Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:37 - Geopolitics & Markets00:02:02 - Silver Markets & Miners00:03:18 - Silver's Recent Moves00:06:25 - Apathy & Sentiment00:10:14 - Tariffs & Debt Markets00:14:53 - Fed Rates & Data Reliance?00:18:43 - Trade War Outlook?00:22:37 - Bigger Powers & Proxies00:27:16 - Commodities Prices & Gov't00:31:17 - Outcomes & Predictions00:35:33 - Head Warnings Buy Gold?00:41:48 - Wrap Up Guest Links:x: https://x.com/johnlee25893955Website: https://www.silverelef.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-lee-baa93422/ John Lee, CFA, is CEO and President of Silver Elephant Mining. Mr. Lee specializes in mining M&A and has raised over $150 million through the TSX and TSX Venture Exchange for junior companies since 2009. Lee identified, negotiated and financed Lynn Lake nickel acquisition in 2009, Ulaan Ovoo coal in 2010, Wellgreen nickel-pgm in 2011, Shakespeare nickel-pgm in 2012, Pulacayo silver in 2015, Gibellini vanadium in 2017, Bisoni vanadium in 2020, and Minago nickel-pgm in 2021. Mr. Lee is a CFA charterholder and graduated from Rice University with bachelor’s degrees in Economics and in Engineering (honor).