The Limits of Monitoring the Situation w/ Tyler McBrien

War in the Middle East keeps expanding, oil prices are rising, and an unpredictable American president has everyone trying to guess his next move. As trust in media institutions hits an all-time low and disinformation spreads online, how can we begin to make sense of things? The proliferation of open-source intelligence, or OSINT, offers one answer. While it's possible to glean certain insights from these sources, they can also mislead people to wrong conclusions or game booming prediction markets.  In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer is joined by friend of the pod Tyler McBrien, managing editor at Lawfare. Tyler recently wrote a piece on the perils of obsessively "monitoring the situation" for The Baffler. He and Jonathan discuss Trump's wars, why prediction markets and geopolitics shouldn't mix, and more.  Find Tyler on X: https://x.com/TylerMcBrien   Read Tyler's piece in The Baffler: https://thebaffler.com/latest/situational-unawareness-mcbrien   Check out Tyler's new series on who blew up the Georgia Guidestones: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/who-blew-up-the-guidestones/id1880399073 Jonathan's piece in The New Republic: https://newrepublic.com/article/208781/trump-iran-venezuela-one-big-war-world

After Venezuela and Iran, many are asking if Cuba is next. The island is enduring energy blackouts, food and medicine shortages, and halting public services. But while the most vulnerable Cubans are hit hardest, Secretary of State Marco Rubio's apparent dream of toppling the regime does not appear close to fruition.  In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer is joined by Ed Augustin, an independent journalist based in Havana, to discuss the situation on the ground. Ed updates us on the unfolding humanitarian crisis, Trump's 180-degree turn on Cuba policy, why the Cuban government is not backing down, and much more. They also touch on how Cuba fits into Trump's broader Western Hemisphere policy.  Find Ed on X: https://x.com/ManInHabana  Read Ed's most recent article in The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/26/world/americas/cubas-health-system-us-oil-blockade.html  Check out his other recent piece for Drop Site News: https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/on-the-streets-of-havana-hope-that 

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez gave her first major foreign policy remarks at this year's Munich Security Conference to lay out her vision of progressive foreign policy. Many are speculating that she is preparing for a presidential run in 2028. She has called for a reckoning with the United States' history of intervention and repression abroad and attempted to offer an alternative to Trump's "might makes right" approach.  In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer is joined by Matt Duss, executive vice president at the Center for International Policy and former adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders, to discuss foreign policy on the left. Matt gives Jonathan his perspective on AOC in Munich, where the Democrats have gone wrong on foreign policy, and how they ought to respond to the Iran war. Find Matt on X: https://x.com/mattduss

Food doesn't often enter conversations about foreign policy, but it is integral to it. Our relationship to food shapes ideas of identity and nationalism and is continuously impacted by the forces of history. Technological, social, and political changes inform and alter global foodways over time. And in today's interconnected world, food supply chains are inextricable from geopolitics.  In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer is joined by Anny Gaul, a cultural historian and professor of Arabic studies at the University of Maryland, to explore the geopolitics of food in the Middle East. They discuss Anny's new book, Nile Nightshade: An Egyptian Culinary History of the Tomato, and how global events both shape and are informed by one of our most basic forms of sustenance.  Check out Nile Nightshade: https://www.ucpress.edu/books/nile-nightshade/paper   Read an excerpt of the book in Foreign Policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/07/egypt-tomato-price-food-agriculture-culinary-history/   Find Anny on X: https://x.com/annygaul 

The United States largely misunderstands Iran. Historic anti-government protests rattled Iran this winter—and were met with lethal state repression and intensifying calls for regime change in Washington. Now, President Trump is again considering military strikes on the country, even as his envoys have sought to negotiate with Iranian leaders. Throughout, Iran has long been one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world, causing immense hardship for its people.  In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer is joined by Narges Bajoghli, an anthropologist and co-director of the Rethinking Iran Initiative at Johns Hopkins University, to challenge American assumptions about Iran. They discuss the impact of Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign, how the current protests unfolded, and those pushing for war in Washington. Narges also explains how the war would be damaging for the interests of Americans and Iranians. Find Narges on Threads: https://www.threads.com/@nargesbajoghli Check out the Rethinking Iran Initiative: https://www.rethinkingiran.com/ 

President Trump campaigned on promises of peace and putting America first, and heavily criticized past involvement in foreign wars. But one year into his second term, the United States has bombed Iran, kidnapped Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, and threatened NATO allies. So, what exactly are his foreign policy goals? And who is shaping those decisions?  In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer is joined by Curt Mills, the executive director of The American Conservative, to break down the state of foreign policy on the right. They discuss the major players, from Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Vice President JD Vance, emerging rifts in the coalition, and whether Trump is fulfilling his America First promise. Find Curt on X: https://x.com/CurtMills  Check out Curt's work at The American Conservative: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/author/curt-mills/  

On January 3rd, 2026, the United States seized Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — and shocked the world. The Trump administration has made no bones about its intent to dominate the Western Hemisphere, and the raid was a brazen show of force. But with the same regime still in place, it is unclear what exactly will change in Venezuela.  In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer is joined by Alejandro Velasco, a historian and professor at New York University, to discuss the recent invention. Amid claims about drug trafficking and oil, they analyze what might really be behind Trump's actions. They also touch on the legacy of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's economic crisis, and what the broader implications of Trump's aggressive posturing might be for the region and the world. 

Mohammed Mhawish did not set out to be a journalist. But studying Shakespeare while enduring Gaza's wars, he was moved to convey the stories all around him. Mohammed fled the strip with his family in 2024, after receiving death threats and surviving Israel's bombing of their apartment building. Now based in the United States, he continues to report on Palestine. In this episode, Mohammed joins the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer to discuss life under Israeli surveillance, the threats faced by journalists, President Trump's Gaza plan, and the future of Palestinian governance. They touch on many of the topics Mohammed has covered in recent articles for New York Magazine and The New Yorker. Find Mohammed on X: https://x.com/mrmhawish  Find Mohammed on Substack: https://www.mohammedmhawish.com/

American foreign policy is in crisis. The bipartisan consensus that emerged after the Cold War has collapsed after a string of American failures, like the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now, with the rise of China and the new ascendance of middle powers, the United States must rethink its engagement with the world. But where to start?  In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer is joined by Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, to discuss her new book First Among Equals. In the book, Emma offers a realist vision for how the United States can adapt its foreign policy to a multipolar world. Together they explore the necessity of restraining American power, how the Trump administration has upended the status quo, and more.  Find Emma on X: https://x.com/EmmaMAshford  Check out Emma's writing at Foreign Policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/author/emma-ashford/   Check out First Among Equals: https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300279542/first-among-equals/

The United States is wealthy, powerful, and a democracy.  That means there are many avenues for foreign countries vying to influence its politics and policy. Though many forms of foreign lobbying are legal and totally above-board, those efforts are largely misunderstood and all too understudied. But understanding the geopolitics of influence can help us understand how Washington really works.  In this episode, the Institute for Global Affairs' Jonathan Guyer is joined by Nick Cleveland-Stout, a research associate at the Quincy Institute, to discuss all things transparency. Nick explains how he digs through documents to discover the foreign influence campaigns of countries like Israel and Qatar — and why Americans should care.  Check out Nick's reporting: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/author/ncstout/   Find Nick on X: https://x.com/nick_clevelands   Check out Kenneth P. Vogel's book, Devils' Advocates: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/devils-advocates-kenneth-p-vogel