Will Israel Strike Iran?

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the “nuclear hurricane” sweeping the world. They begin by returning to the question of whether President Trump made the right decision to conduct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Then they shift to discussing Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi’s recent article “How to Survive the New Nuclear Age.” Should American leaders adopt a new nuclear strategy or adjust existing nuclear policies and capabilities? Chris endorses the Trump administration’s rethinking of certain types of aid to Ukraine, Melanie applauds General Dan Caine’s handling of a delicate political situation, and Zack commends Congressman Don Bacon for his leadership. Show Links: Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi, “How to Survive the New Nuclear Age: National Security in a World of Proliferating Risks and Eroding Constraints,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2025. James Acton, “Optimal Deterrence: How the United States Can Preserve Peace and Prevent a Nuclear Arms Race with China and Russia,” Council on Foreign Relations, June 2025. Ankit Panda, Vipin Narang, and Pranay Vaddi, “Nuclear Proliferation Will Haunt ‘America First,’” War on the Rocks, March 10, 2025. “80 Years of Nuclear Weapons with Chris Preble,” Global Santa Fe, Wednesday, July 16, 5 pm. Geoff Wilson, Christopher Preble, Lucas Ruiz, “Gambling on Armageddon: How U.S. Nuclear Policies Are Undercutting Deterrence and Lowering the Threshold for Nuclear War,” Stimson Center, February 19, 2025. Christopher Preble, “The Influence of History on Nuclear Weapons,” Review of Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America’s Atomic Age by Francis J. Gavin, International Studies Review, March 2014. Jack Goldsmith, “An Authority to License Illegal Conduct,” Executive Functions Substack, July 3, 2025. Gen. Dan Caine, press conference, June 26, 2025.  Annie Karni, “Breaking with Trump, Bacon Says He Won’t Follow His Party ‘Off the Cliff,’” New York Times, June 8, 2025. Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss the very rapidly moving events in the Middle East following the execution of Operation Midnight Hammer. Why did President Trump decide to move from negotiating with Iran to ordering the strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities? Is this a case of alliance entrapment, or is it an example of an “America First” foreign policy? Is this the beginning of another long slog for America in the Middle East? Even though he has Republican majorities in the House and Senate, President Trump did not seek congressional authorization for the mission. Was he constitutionally required to do so? What are the most likely near- and medium-term outcomes of the American and Israeli strikes? There are grievances for Democrats who didn’t object to the unauthorized exercise of war powers by Presidents Obama and Biden but are suddenly relocating their constitutional scruples with a Republican now at the helm, a video message on nuclear weapons by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that may serve to undermine US extended deterrence, and the increasing violence against government officials and lack of security for them. Attas go to the Institute for Global Affairs for new analysis of several countries’ perceptions of national security threats and priorities, to the United States Armed Forces for the brilliantly executed Operation Midnight Hammer, and to the United States Studies Centre for a fantastic workshop on integrated air and missile defense.  Show Links:                                                                      “Video: Kaine Speaks on Senate Floor Regarding His War Powers Resolution to Prevent War with Iran,” June 17, 2025 Eloise Cassier, Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Ransom Miller, “2025 International Public Opinion Survey," Institute for Global Affairs, June 12, 2052                                                                                                                                       Evan Cooper, Christopher Preble, Alessandro Perri, “Restraint Towards Iran Serves US Interests,” Stimson Center, June 18, 2025 Alice Hunt Friend, Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, “Debating the AUMFs,” Net Assessment, February 6, 2020 Patrick Kingsley, Adam Rasgon, Ronen Bergman, Natan Odenheimer, Julian E. Barnes, “Will Israel’s Interceptors Outlast Iran’s Missiles? The Answer May Shape the War,” New York Times, June 19, 2025. Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, “How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure from Israel,” New York Times, June 17, 2025. Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill, “Operation Rising Lion: The First 72 Hours,” Royal United Services Institute, June 16, 2025. Joint Resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress, June 2025. Support Net Assessment at Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent short war between India and Pakistan. Christopher Clary’s first cut of history provides a careful reconstruction of the key events, made all the more difficult by misinformation and disinformation on both sides. But did either side “win”? What role, if any, did Trump administration officials play in negotiating the ceasefire, and what does their involvement portend for the future? How did new technology shape each side’s behavior in that conflict? And are crises between the two countries likely to escalate in severity in the coming years, or can they reach some accommodation? Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earns a grievance for gutting the Pentagon’s operational testing office, but an atta for his strong performance at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore. Attas to the Ukrainians for the audacious drone attack deep inside of Russia, to President Trump for repealing the supersonic air travel ban, and to the newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung. Grievances for the abysmal state of servicemembers’ housing, and to the Trump administration’s crackdown on foreign students wishing to attend U.S. universities. Show Links:   Christopher Clary, “Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025,” Stimson Center, May 28, 2025 https://www.stimson.org/2025/four-days-in-may-the-india-pakistan-crisis-of-2025/ Asfandyar Mir, “India and Pakistan Enter a More Dangerous Era,” New York Times, May 9, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/opinion/india-and-pakistan-enter-a-more-dangerous-era.html  “Five Key Concepts to Understand the India-Pakistan Crisis,” May 19, 2025, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/2025/five-key-concepts-to-understand-the-india-pakistan-crisis/  Supporting Stimson: https://www.stimson.org/support/ Dan Grazier, “Gutting military testing office may be the deadliest move yet,” Responsible Statecraft, June 4, 2025 https://responsiblestatecraft.org/dod-testing-cuts/ Choe Sang-Hun, “He Survived a Knife to the Neck. Now He’ll Lead a Divided South Korea,” New York Times, June 3, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/world/asia/lee-south-korea-new-president.html Donald Trump, post, Truth Social, April 22, 2025. Donald Trump, post, Truth Social, May 10, 2025. Executive Order, “Leading the World in Supersonic Flight,” White House, June 6, 2025. Sudhi, Ranjan Sen, Faseeh Mangi, Dan Strumpf, and Akyla Gardner, “Trump Truce Leaves India Furious, Pakistan Elated as Risks Loom,” Bloomberg, May 11, 2025. Diaa Hadid and Omkar Khandekar, “Vice President Vance Says India-Pakistan Fighting is ‘None of Our Business,’” National Public Radio, May 10, 2025. Timothy A. Walton and Thomas H. Shugart, Concrete Sky: Air Base Hardening in the Western Pacific, Hudson Institute, January 7, 2025. Rene Kladzyk, “Navy Secretary ‘Appalled’ by Barracks Conditions in Guam,” Project on Government Oversight, May 29, 2025. 

Is President Trump’s approach to foreign policy best described as a spheres of influence approach in which the major players are the United States, China, and Russia? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Stacie Goddard’s recent article outlining this idea and assess the implications for Europe, Asia, and North America. Chris expresses frustration with a new brand of American corruption, Melanie highlights China’s acquisition of land near Itaewon, and Zack laments the restructuring of the National Security Council. Links: Stacie E. Goddard, “The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/rise-and-fall-great-power-competition. Monica Duffy Toft, “The Return of Spheres of Influence,” Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/return-spheres-influence. Edward Wong, “Trump’s Vision: One World, Three Powers?,” New York Times, May 26, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/26/us/politics/trump-russia-china.html. Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt, “Scoop: Trump, Rubio take aim at National Security Council’s ‘Deep State’,” Axios, May 23, 2025, https://www.axios.com/2025/05/23/white-house-national-security-council-trump-rubio. Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Makes Arrests Over Failed Ship Launch That Angered Kim Jong-un,” New York Times, May 25, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/world/asia/north-korea-ship-launch-arrests.html. Rebecca Ballhaus and Angus Berwick, “The Father Pursues Trump’s Diplomatic Deals. The Son Chases Crypto Deals,” Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2025, https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-steve-zach-witkoff-crypto-6d8a96be Supporting Stimson • Stimson Center  

An immense and growing national debt, entrenched political polarization, and falling levels of patriotism might lead some to conclude that the position of the United States in the world is weakening compared to other major economies. Michael Beckley looks at other measures, including geography, wealth, alliances, and demographics, and concludes that “This is the paradox of American power: the United States is a divided country, perpetually perceived as in decline, yet it consistently remains the wealthiest and most powerful state in the world—leaving competitors behind.” But, he says, all is not well: an urban-rural divide and a “hollow internationalism” threaten our stability and security. Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about whether the United States is in decline, how our advantages might create vulnerabilities, and how dysfunction at home affects America’s ability to wield influence abroad. Chris has a shoutout for Gabe Murphy and his work on base realignment, Zack has a remembrance of recently-passed security scholar, practitioner, and mentor Joseph Nye, and Melanie criticizes the Biden administration for not coming clean about the extent of failure of the Gaza Pier. Links:  Michael Beckley, “The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power Abroad Comes with Dysfunction at Home,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025. Michael Beckley, “The Age of American Unilateralism,” Foreign Affairs, April 16, 2025. Christopher Preble, “Trump’s Rise: Who’s to Blame?” Cato at Liberty, March 3, 2016. Alexander Cornwell, "US, Israel discuss possible US-led administration for Gaza, sources say," Reuters, May 7, 2025. Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/ Gabe Murphy, “Base Instincts: A Case for Base Realignment and Closures at Home and Abroad,” Taxpayers for Common Sense, May 2025. John Hendel, “The $42 Billion Biden Internet Program Frustrating Dems in Swing States,” Politico, September 4, 2024. Alex Horton, “Biden’s Gaza Pier Was More Dangerous and Costly than Previously Known,” Washington Post, May 7, 2025. John Arnold, Immigration chart, X, May 11, 2025.   

Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Rose Gottemoeller’s claim that arms control is not yet dead, but essential. Are there realistic prospects for a new arms control deal? If the Trump administration seriously seeks agreements with Russia and China, what should we demand? And what concessions might we offer? And what should be the objective of any new arms control agreements? Grievances for the Pentagon’s slow-motion train wreck, to worrisome reports of deep cuts at the State Department, and for the Trump administration’s reported minerals deal in Ukraine. Zack offers a heartfelt attaboy to his mentor Richard Armitage, who passed away earlier this month after a lifetime of service. Attas also to Secretary of State Marco Rubio for not cutting State more, and to the Carnegie Endowment for a new report on the foreign policy attitudes of Generation Z.   Links: Rose Gottemoeller, “Arms Control Is Not Dead Yet: America Should Pursue Parallel Nuclear Negotiations With China and Russia,” Foreign Affairs, April 15, 2025 Christopher S. Chivvis and Lauren Morganbesser, “What Gen Z Thinks About U.S. Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 17, 2025 Geoff Wilson, Christohper Preble, and Lucas Ruiz, Gambling on Armageddon, Stimson Center, February 19, 2025  Nancy A. Youssef, Alexander Ward, and Vera Bergengruen, “Polygraph Threats, Leaks and Infighting: Pete Hegseth Rattled by Pentagon Chaos,” Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2025 Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/ “Armitage’s Story,” Last Days in Vietnam clip, PBS, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/lastdays-armitage/.  

Chris, Melanie, and Zack launch their first Stimson-hosted Net Assessment show with a look at policymaking in the Trump administration. What are the major areas of consensus and disagreement within the administration? Through what lens will policy makers look at challenges such as China? And is a lack of ideological coherence a net positive or negative? Grievances for House GOP leaders playing games with the calendar to avoid a tough vote; for DOGE’s spending cuts that won’t drive the savings they claim, but that are creating havoc; and (again) for the Navy’s troubled Constellation frigate. Attas to Princeton President Christopher L. Eisgruber for standing up for academic freedom; for President Trump’s executive orders on the maritime industrial base and acquisition reform; and to Deputy DNI for Mission Integration William Ruger. And a bonus attagirl to our biggest fan: Melanie’s mom! Links: Tanner Greer, “Obscurity by Design: Competing Priorities for America’s China Policy,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, March 27, 2025. Ross Douthat, “Trump Is on a Path to Failure,” New York Times, April 12, 2025. “Gambling on Armageddon: Costs and Risks of Nuclear Modernization,” Online Event, Stimson Center, May 1, 2025, 2-3 pm ET Joseph Trevithick, “First Constellation Frigate Only 10% Complete, Design Still Being Finalized,” TWZ, April 10, 2025 Alistair MacDonald and Gordon Lubold, “The Warship That Shows Why the U.S. Navy Is Falling Behind China,” Wall Street Journal, March 20, 2025 Emma Ashford, “Foreign Policy Is Much More than a Liberal vs. Conservative Brawl,” War on the Rocks, March 13, 2020 Kenza Bryan and Demitri Sevastopulo, "Donald Trump Plans to Stockpile Deep-Sea Critical Metals to Counter China," Financial Times, April 12, 2025.  Arthur Delaney, Igor Bobic, and Jennifer Bendery, "GOP Changes House Rules to Prevent Themselves from Blocking Trump's Tariffs," HuffPost, April 9, 2025.  Erin Banco, Gram Slattery, and Humeyra Pamuk, "Trump Envoy's Embrace of Russian Demands Worries Republicans, US Allies," Reuters, April 12, 2025.  “The University President Willing to Fight Trump,” The Daily, New York Times, April 9, 2925.

Chris, Melanie, and Zack are joined by a special guest for a big announcement. They also lament the demise of the Office of Net Assessment, debate the merits of DOGE, and discuss Secretary Hegseth’s visit to Asia and the strength of those alliances.  If you would like to support Net Assessment, please consider donating to this special fund: https://www.stimson.org/support/

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic. Chris laments the removal of historical information from U.S. government websites, Melanie has a grievance with Congress for turning again to a continuing resolution to fund government, and Zack criticizes the administration’s efforts to pull Congressionally appropriated funds from several storied American institutions. This episode's reading

Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a rather somber discussion about the Trump administration’s efforts to get a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Why is Trump so insistent on getting an immediate deal? What carrots and sticks, if any, are being given to each side? How will Europe respond to the obviously permanent change in the transatlantic relationship? Chris has some hard words for Congress for its abdication of oversight of arms sales, Zack gives an atta to his brilliant wife, and Melanie is pretty darn proud of the work being done at War on the Rocks. This episode's reading