MTS podcast

Why Recursive Self-Improvement Hits a Wall | Ramez Naam

11/11/2026
0:00
26:53
Recuar 15 segundos
Avançar 15 segundos

Planetary VC investor Ramez Naam pushes back on runaway recursive self-improvement models and short AGI timelines, arguing that empirical lab data shows steep diminishing returns rather than exponential feedback loops. He compares theoretical benchmarks to real-world task horizons at OpenAI and Anthropic, explaining why fully autonomous AI researchers remain constrained by data, taste, and verification bottlenecks. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.



MTS is a live news and interview show covering technology, business, politics, and culture as it happens.

Follow MTS: 

X | ⁠https://twitter.com/MTSlive⁠

YouTube | ⁠https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation⁠

Spotify | ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM⁠ 

Apple | ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763⁠ 

Substack | ⁠https://mtslive.substack.com/⁠

Interested in sponsoring the show? ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

–

Brought to you by:

Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nyc

Chargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/

Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/

ElevenLabs -  AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mts

Factory - A 24/7 system turning signals into production software. Visit https://factory.com/

Neon (by Databricks) - Scale your startup on Neon. The Postgres backend for apps and agents. Built by Databricks. ⁠https://neon.com/mts⁠

Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com  to learn more

Kong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.com

Larridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line.

Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.com

Arena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. ⁠https://arena.ai/⁠

AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.com

Clickhouse - The real-time database that keeps up with all of it. https://clickhouse.com/

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:56) AI Futures Project 2027 Forecast

(04:50) Dollars In Versus Dollars Out

(10:31) AI Futures Cruxes And Benchmarks

(12:17) Evidence Needed To Update

(15:09) Why Forecasters Have Short Timelines

(21:47) Updating On Recent Uplift Data

(22:39) Superhuman Researchers Versus Generalized ASI

–

Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.


Mais episódios de "MTS"