Redwood Research CEO Buck Shlegeris joins Theo and Sofia to unpack his recent post predicting a 33% chance that AI companies build superintelligence within the next year. They examine the modeling behind rapid recursive self-improvement (RSI), how capabilities on verifiable tasks generalize to real-world domains like robotics, potential AI takeover scenarios, and why algorithmic secrecy matters as much as model weight security in the US-China race. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love.
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MTS chronicles the singularity, live. Monitoring the situation of tech and AI.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:09) 33% Chance of Superintelligence Next Year
(03:51) Diminishing Returns vs. AI Acceleration
(08:13) Generalizing From Verifiable to Real-World Tasks
(11:30) Where Is the AI Safety Uplift?
(15:45) Human Enslavement vs. Peaceful AI Takeover
(22:00) Algorithmic Security in the US-China Race
(23:37) What Would Prove Short Timelines Wrong?
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Note: This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.
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