Whitney Tilson on letting winners run as market hits new highs

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, notes that the economic news and growth remain so strong that "the odds of recession are quite low."Detrick notes that 10 of 11 sectors in the Standard & Poor's 500 are higher year-to-date, which is why his firm is overweight in equities generally, and has been adding to financials and industrials in particular. Detrick says there are several disconnects between hard and soft data -- soft data shows low consumer confidence but hard data shows strong retail sales -- and he is trusting the hard data to see the economy continue to broaden out for the remainder of the year. Also on the show, Chuck explains how the new securities settlement standard of "T+1" will affect individual investors, and while he explains that the changes are minimal and won't be noticed by a lot of everyday investors, he also lays out that virtually every stock, bond and ETF trade moving forward will be impacted by the new rules. Plus, in the Market Call, long-time CNBC contributor Ron Insana, the chief executive officer at iFi AI, showcases his platform's technology, which brings together artificial intelligence and stock market data to decide which securities are likely to go on big runs in the next week, month and year.

Jeff Bishop, chief executive officer at RagingBull, says that the market is showing signs of topping out, though he thinks that the building downturn now will likely be short and not too steep before a rally again chases record highs. Bishop notes that "all of the bears have been destroyed," so there are few investors betting against the market, which is typically a sign that trouble is ahead. Bishop notes that those bearish investors were tired of their losses, and that betting against the market now would be risky, but he says there is more downside risk than potential upside right now. Sam Millette, senior investment strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that as the market adjusts to the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts as long as possible, it will set up the market for a better second half of the year. Stephen Minar, head of closed-end funds at BlackRock, discusses how discounts drive money flows into closed-end funds, but they also attract activist investors whose actions may be harmful to others. BlackRock has created some initiatives to fight back, reducing discounts but hoping to increase a closed-end fund's consistency. And in the Market Call, David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel returns, and is the only guest who tackles the ticker list by simply addressing the first five names on it.

Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Wealth Management, says that while the economy has been stronger than investors expected entering the year — and isn't likely to have a sudden reversal — investors need to heed the warning signs and balance optimism with caution, remaining properly diversified. He notes that some international markets are particularly well-positioned right now in terms of valuations compared to domestic equities, particularly in hot industries like artificial intelligence, where the bargains are more with global stocks. Vanneman also likes real assets and discusses the importance of adding alternatives to generate both returns and stability. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, talks about adding international bonds to the portfolio mix with his pick for the ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about properly selecting bonds and bond funds for a retirement portfolio, and Les Rubin of Main Street Economics discusses his new book, “Why You Should Give A Damn About Economics: The US Debt and Your Future.”

Gina Sanchez, chief market strategist at Lido Advisors, says that the stock market is changing its mind so fast that every month investors have a new focus. She notes that the market has gone from favoring value to growth to defensive growth and kept rotating to where it is now back to growth, but she says that can't continue for long because the current level of "productive inflation" will stop working, leading to a slower economy in the second half of the year. While she doesn't expect a hard landing — and in fact expects a long, slow period of sluggishness — it will create volatility and conditions that favor quality, profitability and cash flow. Jennifer White discusses the latest J.D. Power research on consumer financial health, which showed modest improvement despite headline issues over inflation, although there is some concern that it's still a small group of consumers claiming improving circumstances. Plus, Kevin Walkush, portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, talks about quality growth stocks — with an eye towards the artificial intelligence companies that deserve the "quality" label — in the Market Call, and Chuck tells the story of Bitcoin Pizza Day, and what happened to the guys who in 2010 exchanged two pizzas valued at roughly $25 for a little more than $40 in bitcoin, which today is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that anyone believing a no-landing scenario believes in pixie dust, and that investors are mistaking record highs on the stock market for a booming economy. He sees the economy as cooling off, and warning signs building, and notes that the Federal Reserve is too focused on lagging indicators, but the trouble they have been guarding against is still coming. Meanwhile, Rosenberg says investors aren't getting paid to take on equity risk, so he is happy in being in money markets and bonds while he waits for conditions to change. Also on the show, Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton — head of the Franklin Templeton Institute — digs into his research on just how much election results actually matter for the market, and Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, talks in the Market Call about investing in disruptive stocks.

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says investors need to be watching for issues like liquidity being pulled from the system and credit spreads widening and other signs that there may be trouble ahead. He says the market -- as witnessed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossing 40,000 last Friday -- remains driven by momentum and investor behavior and fear of missing out, but once there are strong signs that conditions are faltering and momentum is slowing, there will be a downturn, with a slowdown starting later this year though it may not turn into a full recession until 2025. Ted Benna, recognized as "The father of the 401k," discusses America's retirement and savings crisis and details what he calls the "Wheat Grain Incentive Plan," that would revolutionize the way millions of Americans build savings, plus Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts payment-technology company Marqeta (ticker MQ) in the Danger Zone.

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that gold historically has a quick bounce after the first cut in a rate-cutting cycle, and he expects to see that gain in gold stocks — a fast uptick and then strong results lasting at least a year — whenever the Federal Reserve moves next. Winmill says that the market can keep climbing the wall of worry for a little while, but he expects struggles once current momentum fades. Leo Leydon, president of Financial Focus Advisory Services, says the technical indicators are suggesting that the Standard and Poor's 500 can hit 5,600 by the mid-fall, though he warns that there may be a setback all the way down to 4,800 once the uptrend ends. Charles Lewis Sizemore, chief investment officer at Sizemore Capital Management, says that the big discounts investors have seen in closed-end funds will continue, and he likes real estate and term funds as great values for investors to consider now. In the Market Call, Christopher Sargent, portfolio manager at Bradley, Foster & Sargent, makes his debut talking stocks.

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says that a no-landing situation for the economy will create problems for the Federal Reserve when it comes to hitting inflation targets, and for consumers who are renting, buying cars and more. Thomas noted that the current two-speed economy features a large group of consumers and businesses that have been less interest-rate sensitive and who have benefitted from current conditions, while a smaller group is struggling with high rates, as shown by higher delinquency rates and trouble signs. Thomas says that if the Fed can't get inflation down, the central banker will probably continue its course "until they break something." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a fund tied to the Standard & Poor's 500 — layered with a covered-call strategy to generate income — his pick for ETF of the Week, and Loreen Gilbert, chief executive officer at WealthWise Financial Services, talks stocks during her maiden voyage in the Market Call.

Whitney Tilson, editor at Stansberry Research, says the current market conditions have made him "much more prone to let my winners run," and that investors should not take a market pushing to all-time highs as some sort of sell signal because in most times -- including today -- new highs are a positive, even if they inspire some nervousness and fear of new heights. Tilson says that investors should focus less on headlines and more on what drives markets, namely a strong economy and growing corporate profits. Ted Rossman discusses a new Bankrate.com study -- done in honor of Mental Health Awareness Month -- which found that nearly half of American adults say money at least occasionally has a negative impact on their mental health. In the Money Life Market Call, Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund discusses stocks.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says talk of stagflation and other potential economic woes is overblown, and that the economic data suggests that the economy will overcome the short-term headline distractions to perform reasonably well, even if consumers and investors feel dissatisfied living through periods of higher inflation and lower investment returns. He says the profitability and performance of companies are broadening, and that's happening right now, which should make investors bullish. Also looking at recent market highs as a good sign is Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, who thinks the market will go higher and get through some minor corrections this year, but who sees technical indicators signalling much more significant trouble coming next year and beyond. Plus, research analyst Matt Zajechowski discusses a study on which cars convey the most "status" to their buyers, and whether there is any real value -- rather than just higher insurance bills -- that comes from the status given those fancy cars.