Trustage's Rick sees inflation at 3.2%+, but no recession in '26

Joel Litman, founder/chief investment officer at Altimetry Research, says that investor worries about valuations are overblown because "good data" shows that current conditions are more like the mid-1990s — the middle of a bull market — than 2000 when the Internet bubble burst. He says in the Market Call that with real core earnings growing for a lot of companies, valuations are still reasonable, which is why he says current conditions make for a screaming bull market with several years where it can keep running before investors should get worried and nervous. Brad Neuman, senior vice president/director of market strategy for Alger, says in The Big Interview that if technology spending in artificial intelligence had been removed, the economy would have gone through a recession in the first half of the year, but that also means that a lot of the pressures from a downturn have passed. With the AI boom in "the very early innings," he sees the economy strengthening next year bringing the stock market to higher levels with it. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a tactical play with a new, actively managed corporate bond fund from a brand-name money manager as his ETF of the Week.

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, says he expects inflation to rise to roughly 3.2 percent early in 2026, and says that increase — a long-awaited after-effect of tariffs — to mute the impact of interest rate cuts and other policies. Still, he stopped short of calling for a recession, noting that he thinks the market can overcome extremely high valuations to move forward modestly. He does think the economy may be moving into a period where it supports flat or slow growth for several years, but said it can avoid a crash or a bubble popping if it can avoid nightmare scenarios that he says currently look more hypothetical than threatening. Kerry Pechter, editor and publisher at Retirement Income Journal, discusses his recent piece on what he calls "The Private Credit Instability Hypothesis," which looks at how the growing popularity of private-credit investments could be setting up a future fall akin to the subprime mortgage situation that presaged the Great Financial Crisis. Pechter is concerned that insurance companies — buying private credit to generate higher returns on annuities — will wind up holding the bag on bad paper if there is a breakdown in private-credit markets, and he believes that private credit markets will keep expanding and experiencing more demand up until the point "when something breaks." Vicken Yegparian, executive vice president at Stack's Bowers Galleries, discusses the upcoming auction of an 1804 coin — considered to be "the king of the dollars" — that stunned coin collectors because it involves the 16th version of a coin where only 15 copies were known to exist. He explains how the coin was authenticated and why it may draw more than $5 million on the auction block.

Indrani De, head of global investment research at FTSE Russell, says that there are tailwinds in place — from currency fluctuations, valuations and geopolitical changes — that make developed markets outside of the United States look particularly promising for next year. She says in The Big Interview that correlations between domestic and international markets have been greatly reduced in the last two years, which raises the benefits of diversification, and she suggests that spreading money around will pay off in both returns and in lowering portfolio risk, particularly if spending and investing in artificial intelligence slows and stops masking other market weakness.  David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Prudential, discusses the firm's 2025 Global Retirement Pulse Survey, which showed that mass affluent investors around the world feel ready for retirement, but that — perhaps because of their wealth — they haven't actually taken action to ensure that they're properly prepared. This lack of preparation means they haven't secured dependable income for life, nor have they adequately protected their nest eggs against downturns and market changes. That study shows that many investors could use a financial blueprint, and today's show covers that idea too, with Jeff Panik, author of "Your Future Is Now: Your Blueprint for Solving Your Retirement Puzzle." In the Book Interview, he discusses how investors who have amassed money without a plan can implement one around and with the investments they have made, and that planning does not require a complete overhaul. But even as they start to plan, Panik says every investor needs to take a "Financial Life Inventory," which goes beyond calculating net worth to take a complete picture of a person's financial situation.

Sonia Fraher, head of cash management at Vanguard says that while nearly three-quarters of Americans say they will fall short of their saving and spending resolutions for this year, most are optimistic that they can pull off a "resolution rebound" in 2026. Vanguard's survey research showed that 84 percent of Americans expect to make a financial resolution for 2026, with building the emergency fund being the most common goal. In honor of the holidays, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits the Damger Zone pick he is most thankful for this year, due to its success as a short pick.  Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning for Charles Schwab, discusses the firm's research showing that two-thirds of Americans believe they must look beyond traditional investment products like stocks and bonds to further diversify and succeed in today's market. More than 40 percent think the classic 60/40 portfolio is outdated. Plus, Jake Cousineau, author of "Face Your Financial Fears: The Simple Guide to Fixing Your Relationship with Money," discusses how Americans grow up surrounded by money misconceptions that they must overcome to reach their goals. 

It's a day for talking smart holiday shopping, and the show takes that focus to the investment world. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — is back on Black Friday for the fourth straight year looking for big discounts among closed-end fund, and he's got several names that might work for investors looking to make portfolio changes before year's end. He offers up two ideas for municipal-bond funds, two business-development companies and two direct offerings that the market has put on sale and that investors might want to consider wrapping up for their portfolios. Sarah Foster, economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's 2025 Holiday Essentials Index, which found that more than 75% of holiday staples have gotten more expensive since September 2024, which may mean that what is coming home for the holidays this year is inflation. Erik Beguin, founder, Fort Knox Bank, discusses how consumers who think they are protected by one-time codes and changing passwords are still vulnerable to thieves, and he discusses how high-security savings accounts can shore up the defenses without taking much away from yields. Plus, Chuck helps you complete the holiday shopping for the kids without going to the mall, by talking about how you can use small amounts of money to buy fractional shares of your favorite stocks to create a portfolio that will have a long-lasting impact rather than the fleeting adrenaline rush that comes from opening a present. He discusses how he set up portfolios for his children decades ago and how he is arranging portfolios for his baby grandson and for two great nephews.

Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, says that he expects stock market volatility to increase, especially as the Federal Reserve makes fewer cuts than observers are hoping for, but he doesn't see "a worrisome correction, I just see market testing." Those tests will break some trends in sectors and industries, but shouldn't break the market's ability to post modest gains. In honor of the Thanksgiving holiday being the real start of the holiday shopping season, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks a retail-themed fund as his "ETF of the Week." Sara Enright, senior director of safety and sustainability at Consumer Reports, discusses CR's recently proposed homeowners insurance bill of rights, and points out some of the basics that consumers should know -- but typically don't -- about their policies that insurers often don't disclose because rules don't force them to speak up. Plus, Chuck talks about some things he is thankful for this Thanksgiving, noting that he has had a change in his own attitudes about money, driven by his age, experience, the deaths this year of two people he talked money with and more.  

Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, says the stock market has high valuations, but notes that it lacks the excessive economic risk-taking and the fear-of-missing-out sentiment that are necessary to create true bubble conditions. But she notes that avoiding a bubble doesn;t mean it's smooth sailing ahead, as she says in Empower's outlook for 2026 that she expects anemic job growth to be a primary economic story. That jobs picture puts the Federal Reserve "between a rock and a hard place and maybe a third hard place," with the labor market making it tough for the central bank to cut rates. As a result, she's suggesting that investors rebalance portfolios, downplay their expectations and anticipate heightened volatility. Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says that the market currently is going through a rotation to where "Right now, defense is the play," with money moving to health care, utilities and consumer staples, all defensive sectors. He is expecting the next six to eight weeks to be frothy and to determine whether the recent move away from highs is a blip or a real correction, but he warns that the upside for the Standard and Poor's 500 is "littered with resistance," and "the ease of movement seems to be to the downside."    Plus, in the market Call, Dom Rizzo, portfolio manager for the T. Rowe Price Technology ETF and the T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund talks about how he looks for linchpin technologies in growth markets, with improving fundamentals and, hopefully, reasonable valuations, and just how he determines who makes that grade now.

Amar Reganti, fixed income strategist at the Hartford Funds, says "The uncertainty is real," over the potential not only for what the Federal Reserve could do but how the market and economy will respond to whatever decision gets made. Reganti says investors are facing the prospect of rate cuts spurring higher inflation, but a lack of action resulting in a tougher employment market and that both outcomes could make things a lot scarier and nerve-wracking than they are now. Rachel Perez discusses a BestMoney.com survey showing two-thirds of consumers say they lose more money paying annual fees on credit cards than they gain from the benefits and perks on those premium cards. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, puts meals-delivery company DoorDash back into the Danger Zone, noting that recent strong results and a big bounce in the price are masking the real trouble that still exists in the balance sheet and that will eventually result in a much lower share price for the stock.  In the Market Call, Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Barrack Yard Advisors, explains why he puts much of his focus and emphasis on companies that can "Show me the cash."  

Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says the stock market is facing a trifecta of bear-market risks that could lead to "one of the great bear markets of our lifetime," with losses surpassing 40 percent and lasting for as long as 18 months when it finally bursts. Despite that, he says there are ways to "invest through it," and that's precisely what he is doing, because despite bubble conditions, there are pockets of value and there could still be a lot of market upside until the inevitable pop of this balloon. But the talk starts today with an interview recorded at Wednesday's Active Investment Company Alliance Fall Round Table in New York City, with David Tepper of Tepper Capital Management revisiting past selections of some classic funds he has held for years and their prospects for the future, plus his outlook on the potential dangers of private credit, what he is worried about if the economy turns and more. Charles Rotblut, vice president of the American Association of Individual Investors, discusses the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, which showed that bearish sentiment was actually decreasing as the market pulled back from record highs, and how high levels of bearish sentiment — which the market has seen for the last year — are part of what lets Wall Street climb the proverbial "Wall of Worry." In the Market Call, Daniel Dusina, director of investments at Blue Chip Partners, talks about how he goes about finding "unappreciated quality" at a time when the market itself has appreciated to near record levels.

Andrew Foster, founder and chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners — manager of the Seafarer Growth and Income Fund — says that it's the "bottom of the first or, maybe, bottom of the second inning with respect to how tariffs will play out," but he notes that emerging markets companies have pushed higher prices back on U.S. consumers, which means the story has a lot of twists and turns left to navigate. Foster also says that domestic investors want to use emerging markets -- and foreign currencies -- to diversify portfolios against what lies ahead, noting that over-exposure to the dollar may lead to greater volatility and risk ahead. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, heads to the utilities sector and a long-time established fund for his ETF of the Week. The second half of today's show is interviews from Wednesday's Fall Round Table for the Active Investment Company Alliance, which Chuck attended and spoke at in New York City. The conversation starts with Ryan Paylor, portfolio manager at Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors, which recently converted a closed-end fund from a focus on companies located in the Caribbean Basin — it was ticker Symbol CUBA — to one focused on collateralized loan obligations. Paylor explains the thinking behind the move and how shareholders reacted to such a drastic makeover. Then, long-time activist investor Phil Goldstein of Bulldog Investors discusses the state of shareholder activism and why there seems to be so much less of it than there was just a few years back. Some of the change is good news for consumers — better fund management — while other reasons make it harder for activist moves to succeed.