3Edge's Folts: At these prices, stock investors should wonder what 'fair value' is

Fritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says valuations are at levels reminiscent of bubble days in 1999 and the crash era of 1929, but that's not scaring him out of a mix of domestic and foreign stocks, because economic conditions can support further growth. He does worry about a policy mistake or other event which could trigger a downturn, but so long as it stays mild and doesn't "lurch" to where it's a 40% drop, he thinks investors should be comfortable riding it out. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes an actively managed small-cap fund — the sister to an international fund he highlighted earlier this year — his ETF of the Week.  Plus, Thomas Cole, Co-Founder, Distillate Capital and the Distillate US Fundamental Stability Value ETF, brings his unique take on value investing to the Market Call.

Daniel Morris, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, is expecting the economy and the stock market to continue to roll forward in 2026 but says he would like to see "not such a great year," because his primary worry for the year ahead is "too much of a good thing" that leads the economy to overheat. If that occurs, Morris said, higher inflation and consumers' response to it could change conditions quickly. Morris thinks growth can be solid without going too far, delivering modest growth with volatility due more to conditions like geopolitics than market sentiment. Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners and manager of the Alexis Practical Tactical ETF — a fund-of-funds that invests in exchange-traded funds — discusses why his style favors momentum investing and gives his outlook on international stocks, gold, mega-caps and more in the Market Call. Erika Rasure, chief financial wellness advisor for Beyond Finance discusses the site's 2025 holiday survey which found that nearly two-thirds of Americans feel cultural pressure to overspend, even as they face more financial challenges. That has left that same cohort of the country unsure of just how much it is "safe" to spend during the holiday season.

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says inflation is "stuck" at around 3% despite efforts to shrink it, leaving the Federal Reserve struggling with policy decisions as the Trump Administration positions current levels as acceptable. He's expecting the Fed to cut rates once in 2026, toward the middle of the year, and says the market seems accepting, or resigned, to that. As a result, however, he says this is not a time for "set it and forget it" investment styles in fixed income, noting that the opportunities are changing with the shape of the yield curve today. Jeffrey Bierman, chief strategist at Genesis Cog and chief market technician for TheoTrade.com, says the market has already seen its Santa Claus rally, from the end of Thanksgiving to the end of last week, leaving little room for upside into the end of the year and into 2026. For the new year, Bierman sees a protracted period of sideways markets before things turn positive for the end of the year, but he says that leaves plenty of valuation-driven opportunities for patient investors now. In the Market Call, Brian Bollinger, president of Simply Safe Dividends, talks long-term dividend and income investing.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says that "Bull markets don't die of old age, they die of fright, and what they are most afraid of is recession." But he says the current bull market not only doesn't need to be too worried about recession yet, he says that after celebrating its third birthday, it has gotten into the rarified air of a market that can keep running and producing positive results for longer. While he is not expecting a big, double-digit year in 2026 for the stock market, he says modest gains — tempered by heightened volatility and a downturn or two to overcome — are likely. In "The Danger Zone," David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits three past picks that outperformed as shorts but which then got the actual benefits of "stupid money risk" — something he discusses nearly every week on the show — as they were bought out by private equity firms in deals that bailed out some shareholders, but which says will not be enough to save bad businesses. Plus, Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, is back with "The Week That Is," digging further into the Warner Brothers Discovery buyout, discussing whether a selloff last week might be a sign that investors are getting weary and may bail out before Santa Claus comes for a rally, and looks at the potential for a SpaceX initial public offering in 2026, which might be the biggest IPO in history.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says that history has shown that nearly every new Federal Reserve chairman does "something dumb" when they first get the job. With Jerome Powell soon to be out as Fed chair, Doty says the central bank is in a tricky place, where it could make a cut before the change and have the next chairman come in anxious to cut further, making a policy mistake that hurts the market, but creates buying opportunities for investors willing to ride it out. He's not the only one on today's show fearful of a Fed mistake, as that is the nightmare scenario for Dustin Reid, chief investment strategist at Mackenzie Investments, who says in the Big Interview that the economy has gotten to a point where further moves forward may have some negative impacts, hurting credit markets, raising more potential for a downturn and recession and, generally, not providing the classic economic boosts that frequently drive the markets higher.  In the "Talking Technicals" interview, Gregory Harmon, president at Dragonfly Capital Management, says he is expecting a small-cap rally to lead the market higher into year-end, and he says that the large-cap stocks — as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 — will follow suit, and that the question will be whether the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite comes along for the ride. "Technicals are all pointing higher, earnings are doing fantastic," Harmon says, noting that it would take "an unexpected crisis" to derail the underlying trends pointing "strongly to the upside" right now. Plus, Chuck discusses a visit to the bank to grab some cash that was met with an unusual question from a teller, a query that he says is a reason why consumers may want to have more face-to-face relationships with financial advisers of all stripes, rather than doing everything online.

Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co., now 92 years old and having cemented a track record as one of the best bond fund managers ever, says he's not concerned about a recession because the economy is strong, and in some ways stronger than its ever been during his investing lifetime, but he also compares current times to the late 1930s, a period when geopolitics were dominating the global scene building up to World War II, and says that he is more concerned with those macro-level worries than he has been in his career. Fuss notes that the global scene is more important to what happens next with the U.S. economy than even what the Federal Reserve does, and he quells concerns over pressure on the Fed to cut rates by noting that "every president" wants the central bank to lower interest rates. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Victory Shares Free Cash Flow Growth ETF his "ETF of the Week," noting that it's a relatively new fund focused on quality that has outperformed the market since its debut in 2024. Rosenbluth said the quality focus should give investors some calm if they continue to pursue growth in a market that he thinks will be facing increased volatility in 2026.    Plus, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on Wednesday, Chuck weighs in on what he thinks might happen next and why he worries that interest rate cuts not only won't impact the market as they have in the past but have some potential to hurt the economy at least as much as they could help it if rate reductions continue in the future.

Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors, says that "gold's run is not over," and while he thinks it could easily reach $5,000 an ounce in the short order, he says "It's not inconceivable that within the next half-decade, gold could be sitting at $10,000 an ounce." (Gold is currently trading at roughly $4,225 an ounce.) He also says he expects the Federal Reserve to reach a point in the next 12 to 24 months where it lives "with a new normal of inflation" and resets its target inflation rate to reflect different thinking, which will mean consumers and investors have to adjust to inflation rates running at 3 percent or higher for the foreseeable future.    Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group discusses the company's Christmas Price Index, which looks at the current cost of giving your true love all of the gifts from the "12 Days of Christmas." Thanks to higher prices with gold -- and the five golden rings -- it's no surprise that the rate of inflation shown in the company's 42nd annual holiday index is higher than inflation generally.    Plus, in a market that has been driven to near record levels on the strength of corporate earnings, Nick Raich, chief executive officer of The Earnings Scout, returns to the show for the first time since 2020, talking about his earnings-centric methodology and his expectations for continued earnings growth for the market.

Scott Brown, Chief Strategist at Brown Technical Insights, is wondering "if the market is sniffing out something," because he has seen a change in the last month on the sectors that are now leading the way forward, and it's not the same things that were leading just a few months ago. Brown notes that banks, transportation, global materials, steel and copper stocks are among the areas that now have taken market leadership, and he says that "there's real upside" to where they can drive the market close to a level of 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 by year's end. A day after discussing the market broadly, Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Traders Almanac, returns to the show to discuss the Almanac itself for 2026, noting how the old technology of an almanac still has a place in helping to shape forecasts and expectations because it is built on decades of data that remains relevant, even in a world seemingly dominated by the changing technologies of artificial intelligence. David Rosenstrock, director of investments and financial planning at Wharton Wealth Planning, discusses his approach to mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Traders Almanac, says that artificial intelligence is creating a "super boom," because it's a "culturally-enabling, paradigm-shifting technology," which he says can drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 62,000 — up about 30% from current levels — in just a few years. Hirsch, also the chief executive of Hirsch Holdings, also discusses calendar and seasonal impacts on the market and how he expects a Santa Claus rally this year, but what it means if the market misses out. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, debuts as Money Life's newest regular in a segment called "The Week That Is," which provides one takeway from the market and economic news of the week just finished, the thing to watch out for in the week ahead and one take looking further forward. This week, Vijay focuses on the Netflix-Warner Brothers Discovery deal, how precious metals will respond to a rate cut and move forward and what parents should consider about the new Trump Accounts saving for children. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, circles back on Lyft Inc., the rideshare company that he first singled out as it was in its IPO phase in 2019. The stock is up more than 70 percent year-to-date, but it has lost more than three-quarters of its value since it was launched. Trainer says this year's gains are simply setting up the next fall for a company that is burning cash and that carries a negative economic book value. Rachel Perez discusses the results of a survey done for Rula Health, which showed that 75% of Americans say the cost of holiday gifts stresses them out, but also stresses their budget, with the average American overspending their plan by $261.

Brandon Thurber, chief market strategist at Regions Asset Management, says climbing the proverbial wall of worry has "supercharged the market," making it hard "to find reasons to be anything less than positive and constructive for 2026." While he worries that the message could be that "The only thing you have to fear is fear itself" — and he describes in The Big Interview the real fears that he feels could blossom into problems — he doesn't expect conditions to change much from 2025, and is mostly encouraged about domestic and international markets. Ken Berman, strategist at Gorilla Trades, says that he'd be foolish to say that now is a great time to buy after three strong years, but he believes the path of least resistance for the market is to go higher, and that's what he thinks will carry the current rally well into the new year. Like Thurber, Berman says he wouldn't want to get in the way of the market right now, and makes it clear that while there are reasons to be nervous he "wouldn't want to be short here." John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, looks at tax-loss selling season and whether it has started yet, noting that a few asset classes have largely been able to avoid situations where there will be widespread harvesting this year, while others — most notably business-development companies — may be poised for a lot of tax-driven reshuffling before year's end. Scott also answers some questions on the value of tax-loss harvesting if it means selling a fund you like, and how he recognizes yield traps and spots big discounts that are poor buying opportunities.