AI Skepticism, Stale Data and a Coin Toss (E241)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the week ended Nov. 21, with stocks lower on AI speculation skepticism (0:48), positive high-grade bond returns (2:17) and easing commodities (4:36). Their macro review (9:08) includes the resumption of the government statistical mills, idled by the 43-day shutdown, which churned out a mixed bag of overdue labor market data. While fed funds futures are pricing in likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut Dec. 10, Eric Dhall warns weeks of macro prints lie ahead and regards the odds at this point in time as a coin flip. Among the prints due during the Thanksgiving week ahead (19:45), Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for stale-but-we’ll-have-to-take-it September reports of the PPI, retail sales and durable goods; and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for November.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap a mixed market week (Nov. 10-14) that marked the end of the federal government shutdown and production of the penny. Equities were up a bit on the week with some pretty interesting dispersion (00:34); fixed income was flat (2:32); energy pumped up commodities (3:49); and Bitcoin fell below the important structural marker of $100k (6:25), with Eric and Ryan noting that the drop is reflective of broader risk sentiment. Over in Macro Land (11:04), they discuss the timeline for government data releases and the likelihood that there will be some holes in October prints. Among non-U.S. government data sources (14:56), they review small-business optimism, weekly payroll numbers and state jobless claims. Next week (18:22) will deliver the FOMC October minutes and some PMI numbers.

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Eric Dhall review a negative week ended Nov. 7, 2025, for stocks (00:48), with the year’s high-flying Tech and Communication Services sectors the worst performers on the week; a mixed bag in fixed income (3:06); and flat commodities (4:00). With government JOLTS, payrolls, factory orders and trade reports sidelined by the federal executive branch shutdown, macro pickings (5:43) were largely limited to private data sources, including contractionary manufacturing and expansionary services reports from the ISM. One notable exception was a Congressional Budget Office quantitative analysis relating projected lengths of the shutdown to hits to fourth quarter GDP growth. “The shutdown is really starting to weigh on the economy,” Eric notes, “as we know that government spending is additive to the GDP equation.” Looking to macro reports for Nov. 10-14 (10:08), Jeff Mayberry notes, “If you think Nov. 3-7 was bare, next week is terrible. There’s nothing. No CPI, no PPI, no retail sales. As for the Small Business Optimism number, that’s it for next week.”  

DoubleLine Cross Asset Analyst Mark Kimbrough and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review a week ended Oct. 31 with just two sectors, tech and consumer discretionary, holding the S&P 500 above water, and risk sectors of fixed income – high yield, bank debt and emerging markets – showing gains with investment grade sectors lower as yields shifted higher across the curve. On the macro front, the first meeting by U.S. President Trump in his second term with China President Xi, Ryan notes, “removed some of the tail risk of further trade-war escalation.” However, the week’s biggest market-moving event came out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee, as expected, cut the federal funds target rate 25 basis points. Powell’s flat advisory against assuming a further rate cut at the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting lowered market-priced probabilities for such a cut from as high as 95% to 60% and pushing yields up along the curve. Looking ahead to Nov. 3-7, given the idling of government statistical mills during the shutdown, Mark and Ryan have private-sector data releases for October on their menu: ISM Manufacturing (Monday); ADP private employment and ISM Services (Wednesday); University of Michigan consumer expectations survey (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough analyze the week ended Oct. 24 with stocks with tech leading on a benign September CPI print, fixed income eking out its carry and commodities led higher by WTI on U.S. sanctions against Russian crude oil. Gold, they note, posted its first negative week since mid-August. On the economic front, in the absence of national jobless claims data due to the federal government shutdown, Mark Kimbrough notes state-level stats suggest no undue stress in labor markets. S&P Global PMI data show an expansionary U.S. economy in both manufacturing and services sectors. Turning to the effects of the government shutdown, Mark unearths some research from the 1970s indicating that while delays in data collection probably will have little impact on the quality of the October nonfarm payrolls once that statistical series resumes reporting, biases due to poor memory recall could degrade the fidelity of the household U-3 unemployment survey and especially the CPI for the month of October. Looking ahead to the week of Oct. 27-31, Jeff and Mark will be especially interested Wednesday in guidance coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (after it is expected to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter point) and from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference.

DoubleLine Portfolio Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the markets and macro news for the week of Oct. 13-17 as the government shutdown reaches Day 17. It was a pretty positive week for stocks (00:29), with the only negative sector, financials, impacted by “a string of one-off credit events”; the Agg was up during a pretty quiet week for fixed income (3:07); and commodities were up (5:13), with precious metals up despite a dip in gold. It was another light week for macro data due to the shutdown (7:12), but Jeff and Ryan look at metrics including small business optimism, state jobless claims and credit card data. Fedspeak (13:05) events included Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell discussing QT policy ahead of the blackout period for the October FOMC meeting. Jeff and Ryan also field a listener question on whether mortgage rates coming in due to mortgage spreads tightening could lead to inflation (14:37), with them noting that rates would have to come in a lot for the current dynamic to change.

 DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the Oct. 6-10 week, punctuated by a Friday trade-war fright that reversed the week’s gains in stocks (0:27) and spurred a flight to safety into bonds (3:47). Commodities (6:11) followed energy lower, and gold consolidated near $4,000 an ounce. The “debasement trade” (6:25) attributed to gold’s winning streak is a topic for discussion, with Eric and Mark reminding listeners that despite gold’s luster as an asset outside the manipulations of fiat currencies, ultimately central banks’ appetite for bullion, or lack of it, will help decide where gold prices go from here. The week’s macro data (10:00) showed gradual weakening in consumer credit and, via the FOMC minutes, a flock of “scared doves” behind the Sept. 17 fed funds rate cut. Due to the government shutdown, the Oct. 13-17 week (17:41), Eric and Mark note, perhaps will be most notable for the scheduled government indicators that are NOT released: CPI, PPI and import prices on the inflation front and retail sales. Among the few major releases expected are the Federal Reserve’s beige book and industrial production report.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the market week of Sept. 29-Oct. 3 against the backdrop of a federal government shutdown. Eric and Ryan discuss the continuing strong run for equities on the back of high-fliers for September, Q3 and year-to-date (00:25) as well as healthy returns across all three time periods for fixed income (3:54) and commodities (5:38). While data delivery was light in Macro Land due to the shutdown, Eric and Ryan do take a look at prints that reflect a softening labor market (14:37), waning consumer confidence (19:00), weakening PMI numbers (19:44) and lower home prices (21:49). Next week could be a light week or very light week for data (24:35), depending on the shutdown, with the University of Michigan consumer survey among the nongovernmental prints on the schedule.

DoubleLine Portfolio Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough chart a quiet week ended Sept. 26 for equities (0:36) and fixed income (1:53) while commodities advanced led by energy. The week’s macro prints (4:40) included preliminary expansionary readings for manufacturing and services on the S&P PMI for September; revision of second-quarter GDP to 3.8% annualized; and Core PCE preserving a disinflationary trend, albeit with a recent pick-up in services prices. Looking ahead (12:25) to the week of Sept. 29-Oct. 3, the big question will be whether a budget standoff between congressional Republicans and Democrats leads to a government shutdown on Oct. 1. If the federal bureaucracy goes dark, private data such as the ADP employment report, Jeff Mayberry notes, could become more important than usual, given the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and other reports.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel dissect the Sept. 15-19 week, with stocks (0:22) rallying to new highs on tech, comm services and consumer discretionary; yield-curve steepening (2:15); and commodities weakening amid strength in precious metals (3:40). The week’s macro news (7:04) was dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee’s quarter-point fed funds rate cut and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Sept. 17 indicating a preoccupation with risks to the labor market, albeit in a context of ongoing concern about the future path of inflation. While forecasts in some corners called for as many as three FOMC member dissents, only newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, who has called for three 0.5% federal funds rate cuts over the last three FOMC meetings of 2025, voted in disagreement with Wednesday’s quarter-point cut. However, Eric and Ryan take note of the extraordinary dispersion among FOMC members over the future course of monetary policy. Looking ahead to the week of Sept. 22-26 (21:43), Eric and Ryan will be particularly focused on the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August. Based on CPI, PPI and import and export prices, economists’ consensus forecasts a relatively benign month-over-month increase of 20 basis points (0.20%), which would leave the year-over-year Core PCE increase unchanged at 2.9%.